Since our last Power Rankings we have had Fair Hill, Chattahoochee Hills, and of course Rolex to shake things up at the top, not to mention an eventful Badminton. Not only have the leaders shuffled around, but we have gained an additional 10 pairs who are now qualified to compete at the 2016 Olympic Games!
PLEASE NOTE: These rankings are created from the EN results database and are mathematically calculated without factoring in external criteria such as strength of schedule, injuries, time off, recent performance versus past performance, vet evaluations, etc. They are not a reflection of who may or may not actually make the team, but instead a hard look at who is actually producing the lowest finishing scores on average. When calculating these rankings, we used the following criteria:
- The horse and rider must have already qualified as a pair at one of the 2015 or 2016 qualifying events.
- The average penalty score for each phase is added up to determine each horse’s average completion score.
- Rankings are calculated using FEI scores in the previous calendar year only, from the three-star and four-star levels.
- The rankings will be rolling, meaning that scores will be dropped from the averages as they pass the one-year date.
- Even pairs with poor performance in 2016 CCIs will still be ranked if their average finishing score is within the top twenty.
- Only results as a pair are counted.
- Any pair who has scratched from a spring CCI due to an injury will not be listed until they appear on another entry status.
Currently 80 U.S. combinations have achieved at least one Olympic qualifier, although a few of those pairs are no longer competing together and others have declared that the horse is injured and will not be available for the Olympics. Pairs not yet qualified will have additional opportunities in 2016 to qualify at Jersey Fresh, Saumur, Tattersalls, Bromont and Bramham.
Note: To be considered for an Olympic team, a horse must have been submitted as an applicant to the FEI by Feb. 19, 2016. This list does not reflect whether horses have been submitted for Olympic consideration.
Rewind to: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Round 5
Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen. Photo by Heather McGreer.
1. Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen
- Qualifiers: 2015 Luhmühlen CCI4*, 2015 Blenheim CCI3*
- Average completion score: 41.63
- Number of FEI 3*/4*runs in past calendar year: 3
- Last round’s ranking: #1
Loughan Glen is specifically aimed at CIC events only this season and will not contest a CCI in his bid to make the Olympic team, a bold path to selection. With a slightly below average performance from this pair at the Belton CIC3*, Clark will need to make sure that his dressage and show jumping are closer to their typical mid-to-low 30s with no rails at Chatsworth this weekend to solidify their chances.
Lauren Kieffer and Veronica. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
2. Lauren Kieffer and Veronica
- Qualifiers: 2015 Bramham CCI3*, 2015 Blenheim CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 49.10
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: #5
Not only does Veronica unsurprisingly climb the ranks thanks to a second-place performance at Rolex, she also gets a boost after dropping last year’s Rolex off her calculations. The run-out she had last April was the last time she had a blip, and she’s been nothing but consistency since. Her highest flat score in the past year is a 46.2 at Blenheim and she hasn’t had a single rail in the past 12 months. Lauren and Veronica should be up for serious team consideration come selection time.
3. Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Cubalawn
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 51.57
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 6
- Last round’s ranking: #2
Fernhill Cubalawn has now placed fifth at his last three FEI shows in a row, at Rolex, The Fork and Fair Hill last fall, and replicated his fifth-place finish at Rolex last year. This horse is not the flashiest horse in Phillip’s string but he is perhaps the most consistent.
He jumps double clear in the stadium more often than not, never more than 20 seconds over optimum even on a muddy, rain-soaked course and often goes close or under the time in better weather, reliably scoring in the 45-48 range. He’s a known quantity that can be relied upon to put in a typical performance which should make him a very attractive choice to the selectors.
4. Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 52.94
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: #4
Mighty Nice finally had some luck at Rolex, finishing as Phillip’s highest placed ride in fourth despite two rails. This horse is a slightly higher risk/higher reward than Fernhill Cubalawn, with the potential to score better in dressage with scores ranging from 42 to 45 in the past 12 months.
Similar averages to Cubalawn on the cross country phase balance out, but this horse is riskier in the stadium phase, jumping only two double clear rounds out of his last five FEI events. One rail will simply balance out the advantage he receives in dressage over Fernhill Cubalawn but two rails become riskier business. The selectors will have to make a decision as to what they think better suits the composition of the team.
Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Fugitive. Photo by Jenni Autry.
5. Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Fugitive
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*
- Average completion score: 53.01
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: #3
Up until Rolex Sunday, Fernhill Fugitive was mathematically Phillip’s best option for Rio, combining the dressage range of Mighty Nice with the consistency in stadium of Fernhill Cubalawn. In all the rounds he jumped in 2015 and 2016, he had only knocked down one rail, and that had last happened at the The Fork in 2015. But five rails at Rolex will be incredibly difficult to look beyond, and with that one round, he could be be passed over for more reliable options.
6. Lauren Kieffer and Meadowbrook’s Scarlett
- Qualifiers: 2015 Jersey Fresh CCI3*, 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*
- Average Completion Score: 53.70
- Number of FEI 3*/4* Runs in past calendar year: 4
- Last round’s ranking: #6
Meadowbrook’s Scarlett hasn’t competed since running the CIC3* at The Fork but her stablemate’s superb run at Rolex likely means that this mare’s role as second option for Lauren is firmly solidified. A great performance at the Jersey Fresh CCI3* this weekend will keep her in the running as an option but with no four-star experience, her stablemate has a large leg-up on her for this Olympic cycle.
7. Marilyn Little and RF Demeter
- Qualifiers: 2015 Bromont CCI3*
- Average completion score: 57.72
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: #14
Thanks to a quirk of my calculation method, RF Demeter actually moved up the ranks after their stop at last year’s Rolex rolled out of date. Despite that, this mare will have an uphill battle for selection after a retirement and a horse fall respectively in their last two FEI events at Galway Downs and Rolex, which are both CCI competitions that count towards Olympic selection.
Although she did win Bromont CCI3* last year, RF Demeter hasn’t had a clean cross country round at the four-star level since Rolex in 2014. Selectors will need to decide if her incredible strength and consistency at the three-star level in the past two years is enough to send her to Rio.
8. Buck Davidson and Ballynoe Castle RM
- Qualifiers: 2015 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- Average completion score: 57.83
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 6
- Last round’s ranking: #9
Ballynoe Castle RM benefited similarly from RF Demeter in the rankings after last year’s stop at Rolex rolled off, but he is another who has struggled as of late. In the past 12 months, he has only run clear in two of five FEI cross country runs, with Buck electing to retire (or once picking up a technical elimination) instead of continuing after a stop.
Despite being a strong candidate for the U.S. team since 2010, this may not be his year. Reggie has yet to appear on an entry list for a spring CCI, and Buck confirmed to EN that he has not yet solidified a plan for the horse’s next big competition.
Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.
9. Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville
- Qualifiers: 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 58.60
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 3
- Last round’s ranking: Not yet qualified
Manoir de Carneville picked up his Olympic qualification at Rolex, allowing Sinead to breathe a sigh of relief. This pair ran sparingly at this level leading up to Rolex, only running a full course at Carolina CIC3* before picking up a technical elimination in the stadium at The Fork. A good performance in all three phases combined with their overall record should put them into the conversation for Rio.
10. Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 60.11
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: Unranked
It goes without saying that this pair has absolutely been on fire this spring, rampaging their way up the rankings until bursting into the top 20 after Rolex A stop at Plantation last fall is keeping them from moving further up, but that stop is the only 20 on their cross country record in fifteen starts. The selectors almost certainly will be throwing this horse’s name around when discussing potential team slots.
11. Emily Beshear and Shame on the Moon
- Qualifiers: 2015 Bromont CCI3*, 2015 Blenheim CCI3*
- Average completion score: 61.45
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 6
- Last round’s ranking: #10
Shame on the Moon struggled with the electric atmosphere in the Rolex stadium, scoring in the 50s for the first time in over a year. After stops in their two final shows, Emily chose to withdraw this lovely mare before cross country. At only 10 years old, Shame on the Moon is a strong potential candidate for teams in the future.
Allie Knowles and Sound Prospect. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
12. Allie Knowles and Sound Prospect
- Qualifiers: 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 61.64
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 8
- Last round’s ranking: Unranked
Hometown girl Allie Knowles thrived this year in the Rolex environment, getting vindication after a poorly timed fall at The Fork last year created a less than optimal lead up to Sound Prospect’s first four-star experience. This horse has been flying under the radar, but with dressage scores in the 46-51 range, the ability to make the time cross country, and an extremely strong show jumping record at the FEI levels since the beginning of 2015, he has suddenly become difficult to ignore.
13. Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 61.73
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 4
- Last round’s ranking: #16
Boyd finished a solid sixth with Blackfoot Mystery in this horse’s first four-star but they were largely aided by his turn of foot across the country after a sub-optimal dressage test. Boyd also delivered a clutch ride in the stadium phase aboard “Big Red,” having only one rail in the horse’s previous weakest phase over a course that gave many strong jumpers trouble.
The biggest question is whether Blackfoot Mystery will be the mid-40s horse or the low-50s horse on the flat, and selectors will have to decide if the upsides of this horse are worth the risk.
14. Matt Brown and Super Socks BCF
- Qualifiers: 2015 Bromont CCI3*, 2015 Boekelo CCIO3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 63.07
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 7
- Last round’s ranking: #8
Matt and Super Socks BCF delivered beautifully on their potential in the first two phases of their first four-star event. Unfortunately, things fell apart a bit in the stadium phase, something the selectors will have to weigh heavily. This horse is only 10 though, and these two will likely be ready to do big things in the future.
Buck Davidson and Copper Beach. Photo courtesy of Rare Air Photography.
15. Buck Davidson and Copper Beach
- Qualifiers: 2015 Tattersalls CCI3*, 2015 Boekelo CCIO3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 63.40
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 6
- Last round’s ranking: #12
Copper Beach is perhaps the most consistent horse in Buck’s string in the past 12 months and he spent Rolex putting in the same sort of performance he always delivers. This horse struggles to get close to the time though, and has gone progressively slower in the cross country phase in each of his last CCIs, culminating with 20.4 time penalties in his first four-star start, which could make him a tougher choice.
16. Boyd Martin and Cracker Jack
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*
- Average completion score: 63.84
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: Unranked
Cracker Jack is another horse who climbed the rankings through a quirk in my calculation method despite having a fall at Badminton this past Saturday at the treacherous Vicarage Vee, which claimed many other pairs as well. A declaration by Boyd to re-route this horse to Luhmühlen could possibly keep him in team consideration if he excels there, although Luhmühlen is not a U.S. team qualifier.
Kurt Martin and Delux Z at The Fork. Photo by Jenni Autry.
17. Kurt Martin and DeLux Z
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rebecca Farm CCI3*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 64.03
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 8
- Last round’s ranking: #13
Kurt and DeLux Z put in solid performances in two of three phases of their first four-star, and put in a stellar performance in the final show jumping phase, jumping one of the very few double clear rounds of the day. Although they took their time across the country at Rolex, Kurt will no doubt be considered a strong contender for the future with this horse.
18. Boyd Martin and Master Frisky
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 64.10
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 1
- Last round’s ranking: #11
A poorly timed bout of cellulitis prevented Master Frisky from joining his stablemate and taking a crack at Badminton, but a quick re-route to Jersey Fresh will give this horse a chance to really excel. With one Rolex already under his belt, this horse has proven he has the chops for a four-star, and a strong finish in a CCI this spring would make him one of Boyd’s top contenders for the team.
Elisa Wallace and Simply Priceless. Photo by Jenni Autry.
19. Elisa Wallace and Simply Priceless
- Qualifiers: 2015 Blenheim CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- Average completion score: 64.30
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 5
- Last round’s ranking: Unranked
Elisa Wallace and Simply Priceless really stepped up to the plate for a second year in a row at Rolex, stringing together three extremely solid phases to lock in a top 10 placing. Selectors will be looking at their overall spring record as a whole, which still shows some inconsistency in both the dressage and show jumping phases, but this pair has made a case for team consideration, especially after a strong Blenheim run last fall.
20. Jennie Brannigan and Catalina
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*
- Average completion score: 64.80
- Number of FEI 3*/4* runs in past calendar year: 4
- Last round’s ranking: Unranked
Catalina bypassed Rolex after having their first problem at this level at The Fork, and Jennie chose to re-route to the Jersey Fresh CCI3* instead. A strong performance this weekend could put this pair in the conversation, but they will have to overcome the mare’s lack of experience at this level.
Will Faudree and Pfun at Fair Hill. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Fair Hill, Chattahoochee Hills and Badminton Recap
Will Faudree and Pfun topped the charts at Fair Hill CIC3*, with stablemate Caeleste placing fourth. Boyd Martin and Welcome Shadow unfortunately picked up the first stop for this mare at this level. All three horses will be starting at the Jersey Fresh CCI3*.
No Americans contested the CIC3* at Chattahoochee Hills.
It was a rough cross country for the Americans at Badminton, with only Libby Head and Sir Rockstar finishing and picking up their Olympic qualification.
Lauren Kieffer and Landmark’s Monte Carlo. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Combinations currently ranked outside the top 20
- Buck Davidson and Petite Flower
- Phillip Dutton and Mr. Candyman
- Lauren Kieffer and Landmark’s Monte Carlo
- Doug Payne and Vandiver
- Lynn Symansky and Donner
