There haven’t been many key competitions since Round 6 of the Power rankings, but Jersey Fresh and Chatsworth have definitely given us some results to ponder. Now that that majority of the American hopefuls have completed their spring CCI and are on a break, we’ve decided to shake up the way we calculate the rankings a bit.
Instead of using FEI results from the past 12 months, the Round 7 rankings are created using FEI results from the 2016 season only. This gives us a better idea of who is on current form and who might be peaking this spring.
The U.S. Olympic team team is expected to be named no later than June 20, when the U.S. can submit up to 12 names before confirming the final team on July 18. A mandatory team outing will be held July 8-10 at Great Meadow International.
PLEASE NOTE: These rankings are created from the EN results database and are mathematically calculated without factoring in external criteria such as strength of schedule, injuries, time off, recent performance versus past performance and team vet evaluations. The rankings are not a reflection of who may or may not actually make the team, but instead a hard look at who is actually producing the lowest finishing scores on average.
When calculating these rankings, we used the following criteria:
- The horse and rider must have already qualified as a pair at one of the 2015 or 2016 qualifying events.
- The average penalty score for each phase is added up to determine each horse’s average completion score.
- Rankings are calculated using FEI scores from 2016 only, from the three-star and four-star levels.
- Pairs with poor or no results from 2016 CCIs will still be ranked if their average finishing score is within the top 20, which reflects CIC consistency.
- Only results obtained as as a pair are counted.
- Any pair that has scratched from a spring CCI due to an injury will not be listed until they appear on another entry status.
Jersey Fresh results gave us an additional 14 pairs qualified to compete at the Olympics, making a total of 94 U.S. combinations who have achieved at least one Olympic qualifier, although a few of those pairs are no longer competing together, and others have declared that the horse is injured and will not be available for the Olympics.
Pairs not yet qualified will have additional opportunities in 2016 to qualify at Tattersalls, Bromont and Bramham, the final three U.S. selection trials. (Note that Luhmühlen 2016 is not listed as an official U.S. selection trial.)
Note: To be considered for an Olympic team, a horse must have been submitted as an applicant to the FEI by Feb. 19, 2016. This list does not reflect whether horses have been submitted for Olympic consideration.
Rewind to: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Round 4, Round 5, Round 6
Lauren Kieffer and Veronica. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
1. Lauren Kieffer and Veronica
- Qualifiers: 2015 Bramham CCI3*, 2015 Blenheim CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: The Fork CIC3* (2nd), Rolex CCI4* (2nd)
- Average completion score: 47.90
- Last round’s ranking: #2
Lauren and Veronica rise to the top of the list this round thanks to their incredible consistency this spring. It goes without saying that these two will be looked at hard for a spot on the team, which will be announced no later than June 20.
2. Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen
- Qualifiers: 2015 Luhmühlen CCI4*, 2015 Blenheim CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Belton CIC3* (17th), Chatsworth Event Rider Masters CIC3* (9th)
- Average completion score: 50.95
- Last round’s ranking: #1
Loughan Glen took one step closer to matching his form of last year by scoring in the 30s and jumping a double clear stadium round at Chatsworth. While on paper it looks like he was a touch slower on cross country, it’s notoriously difficult to make time at Chatsworth. Clark put in a time faster than 77 percent of the competitors who started out on course that day across the three CIC3* divisions. These two will have one more start before team selection in the second leg of Event Rider Masters at Bramham.
3. Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Red Hills CIC3* (8th), Carolina CIC3* (2nd), The Fork CIC3* (1st), Rolex CCI4* (3rd)
- Average completion score: 52.45
- Last round’s ranking: #10
Maya and Doesn’t Play Fair have been knocking on the door for a while, and their massive move up the rankings shows how much of a monster this pair has become this spring. When looking at their most recent performances, it’s impossible to leave these two out of the team discussion.
Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair at The Fork 2016. Photo by Jenni Autry.
4. Phillip Dutton and Indian Mill
- Qualifiers: 2016 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (4th), The Fork CIC3* (6th), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (5th)
- Average completion score: 53.07
- Last round’s ranking: Not yet qualified
Indian Mill and Phillip Dutton collectively have plenty of experience, but this is just their first season competing together. Phillip has about a billion horses qualified for the Olympics (OK, six), and despite ranking at the top here, Indian Mill does have question marks surrounding his CCI show jumping record. Phillip helped the horse match his previous best CCI score of two rails at Jersey Fresh, but Indian Mill overall averages four rails at CCIs. With the double show jumping format at the Olympics, Phillip’s other mounts are likely stronger team candidates.
5. Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: The Fork CIC3* (4th), Rolex CCI4* (4th)
- Average completion score: 53.45
- Last round’s ranking: #4
Mighty Nice and Phillip have the longest standing relationship of all his mounts, with a three-star record starting in 2011. Phillip has historically performed well on teams with longtime partners, which might give Mighty Nice the edge come selection time.
6. Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Cubalawn
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: The Fork CIC3* (5th), Rolex CCI4* (5th)
- Average completion score: 54.95
- Last round’s ranking: #3
Fernhill Cubalawn is one of the best show jumpers in Phillip’s barn, and that talent coupled with very consistent performances in the other two phases makes him an extremely strong contender for Rio. Fernhill Cubalawn has been partnered with Phillip since 2014, so they also have a solid partnership established.
Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Fugitive. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
7. Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Fugitive
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Red Hills CIC3* (1st), The Fork CIC3* (14th), Rolex CCI4* (13th)
- Average completion score: 56.27
- Last round’s ranking: #5
Another longtime partner for Phillip, Fernhill Fugitive’s uncharacteristic Rolex stadium round likely slipped him behind his stablemates in terms of contention for Rio. He could still be up for consideration with his overall extremely consistent record since the selection period began at Rolex last year.
8. Lauren Kieffer and Meadowbrook’s Scarlett
- Qualifiers: 2015 Jersey Fresh CCI3*, 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Red Hills CIC3* (11th), The Fork CIC3* (7th), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (X)
- Average Completion Score: 56.77
- Number of FEI 3*/4* Runs in past calendar year: 4
- Last round’s ranking: #6
This precocious young mare was once again proving her very consistent form at Jersey Fresh when she was not accepted at the final horse inspection. She is entered to compete in the Nations Cup at Great Meadow and will likely still be considered as a strong back-up to Veronica.
Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville at Rolex. Photo by Alleyn Evans for Shannon Brinkman.
9. Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville
- Qualifiers: 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (9th), The Fork CIC3* (TE), Rolex CCI4* (10th)
- Average completion score: 58.60
- Last round’s ranking: #9
Sinead and Manoir de Carneville have been part of the team conversation for the past several cycles, and this year is no exception. These veterans have demonstrated they deserve to be in contention once again.
10. Boyd Martin and Crackerjack
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: The Fork CIC3* (13th), Badminton (MR)
- Average completion score: 54.85
- Last round’s ranking: #16
Once again, Crackerjack claims a spot in the rankings through a quirk in my calculations, ranked high thanks to three strong phases at The Fork along with a solid dressage test at Badminton. Despite a fall at Badminton at the most notorious fence on the course, a top finish in the Luhmuhlen CCI4* could catapult this horse into consideration.
11. Phillip Dutton and Z
- Qualifiers: 2016 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (22nd), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (4th)
- Average completion score: 61.05
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
The sparsely named Z has shown good potential for the future after finishing fourth on his dressage score in his first CCI3* at Jersey Fresh. With only three starts at this level under his belt, Z is unlikely to be jumping the line ahead of his stablemates but has strong potential be a contender for future U.S. teams.
Lynn Symansky and Donner at Rolex. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
12. Lynn Symansky and Donner
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2015 Burghley CCI4*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (3rd), The Fork CIC3* (17th), Rolex CCI4* (17th)
- Average completion score: 61.70
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
Lynn and Donner battled Murphy’s Law all throughout Rolex and still managed a top 20 placing. First, Donner got his tongue over the bit before entering the dressage arena after being surprised by cheers from the crowd. Then the pair drew the short end of the stick on Rolex Sunday, combating the absolute worst of the rain that momentarily deluged the Rolex Stadium. Still, they put in a smoking round across the country, clocking in one of the fastest rounds of the day. With their consistency all spring, they are likely in consideration for a team slot.
13. Buck Davidson and Petite Flower
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rolex CCI4*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Rolex CCI4* (9th)
- Average completion score: 61.90
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
Petite Flower had a very conservative schedule this spring, and it worked in her favor as she edged into a top-10 placing in her second four-star. One of the absolute best show jumpers on the U.S. circuit and a consistent performer on the flat, Petite Flower is likely Buck’s strongest contender for an Olympic berth.
Alexandra Knowles and Sound Prospect at Rolex. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
14. Allie Knowles and Sound Prospect
- Qualifiers: 2015 Galway Downs CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (8th), The Fork CIC3* (W), Rolex CCI4* (16th)
- Average completion score: 61.97
- Last round’s ranking: #12
Sound Prospect is another extremely strong show jumper who has really stepped up to the plate in the other two phases in the past 12 months. Allie has flown a bit under the radar with this horse, but with the double stadium format for the Olympics, these two deserve a hard look.
15. Julie Richards and Sandhills Brillaire
- Qualifiers: 2016 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Poplar Place CIC3* (3rd), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (9th)
- Average completion score: 63.50
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
After purchasing Sandhills Brillaire late in 2015, Julie quickly worked her way through her qualifiers with the mare, obtaining her Olympic qualification at Jersey Fresh. Now the selectors have another experienced pair to consider in this Adelaide winner and U.S. Olympian.
Will Faudree and Caeleste at Carolina International. Photo by Jenni Autry.
16. Will Faudree and Caeleste
- Qualifiers: 2016 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Fair Hill CIC3* (4th), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (10th)
- Average completion score: 63.85
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
Caeleste made her first CCI3* at Jersey Fresh a memorable one by obtaining her Olympic qualifier. With Will’s experience, the selectors are likely giving this horse a look.
17. Laine Ashker and Anthony Patch
- Qualifiers: 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (5th), Rolex CCI4* (19th)
- Average completion score: 64.90
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
Much to their massive fan following’s delight, Anthony Patch and Laine Ashker impressed this spring with solid finishes in their two FEI events. The internet might actually explode if Laine and Anthony Patch are one of the 12 combinations named to the team come June 20.
Boyd Martin and Welcome Shadow at Jersey Fresh. Photo by Jenni Autry.
18. Boyd Martin and Welcome Shadow
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Jersey Fresh CCI3*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Red Hills CIC3* (5th), Fair Hill CIC3* (9th), Jersey Fresh CCI3* (2nd)
- Average completion score: 66.10
- Last round’s ranking: N/A
This mare has been a welcome surprise in Boyd’s string, with the foxhunter-turned-eventer taking to these levels like a fish to water. After a second place finish at Jersey Fresh, Welcome Shadow is difficult to ignore. She could be a surprise pick or a strong back-up to Boyd’s top contenders.
19. Kurt Martin and DeLux Z
- Qualifiers: 2015 Rebecca Farm CCI3*, 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (18th), The Fork CIC3* (12th), Rolex CCI4* (25th)
- Average completion score: 67.23
- Last round’s ranking: #17
DeLux Z is a horse to keep an eye on after a steady but strong performance at his and Kurt’s first four-star attempt at Rolex. Strong in the stadium, consistent on the flat and with a proven ability to make time at a CCI, these two will be a pair to watch moving forward.
20. Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery
- Qualifiers: 2015 Fair Hill CCI3*, 2016 Rolex CCI4*
- 2016 FEI 3*/4*: Carolina CIC3* (36th), Rolex CCI4* (6th)
- Average completion score: 67.60
- Last round’s ranking: #13
Blackfoot Mystery dropped a bit in this round of rankings with his 2015 results being excluded, but a strong performance at Rolex shows he is one of Boyd’s leading team contenders. This horse’s strongest performance this spring actually came with a win in an Advanced division at The Fork (which is not factored into these rankings as it was not an FEI competition), and these two followed it up with sixth place at Rolex. Most telling was a clutch one-rail stadium round, historically this horse’s weakest phase, during some of the worst rain of the afternoon.
JERSEY FRESH RECAP
Boyd Martin and Welcome Shadow finished as the top American pair on a tragic weekend, with Phillip Dutton filling out the top five with stablemates Z and Indian Mill. Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless obtained an Olympic qualification after a bumpy spring with sixth place, while Caroline Martin and Spring Easy, Julie Richards and Sandhills Brillaire, and Will Faudree and Caeleste all finished in the top 10.
Andrea Baxter and Indy 500 at Jersey Fresh. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Combinations currently ranked outside the top 20:
- Andrea Baxter and Indy 500
- Jennie Brannigan and Catalina
- Matt Brown and Super Socks BCF
- Hallie Coon and Celien
- Buck Davidson and Copper Beach
- Lauren Kieffer and Landmark’s Monte Carlo
- Boyd Martin and Shamwari 4
- Caroline Martin and Spring Easy
- Doug Payne and Vandiver
- Elisa Wallace and Simply Priceless
