#43. Buck Davidson and Ballynoe Castle RM. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Take a deep breath, because the fall eventing season on the East Coast is about to get underway! Millbrook marks the beginning of what has been the traditional path to the Dutta Corp Fair Hill International for riders based in the northeast. Millbrook is well placed in the calendar, competing only with Rebecca Farms for competitors, and their northern-based location in Area I promises to keep an August competition from being overly hot.
Because Millbrook only offers an Advanced division, we have a good opportunity to see all the horses compete in one division. After a summer off, most of the Rolex horses are back in full swing, and a slew of horses stepping up to the level for the first time will join them in a division that is shaping up to be quite massive. It’s generally tough to make time at Millbrook, which means the fastest horses have a good shot at rising to the top.
The dressage test will be 2014 USEF Advanced B, with which most pairs are familiar. The cross country course designer is Tremaine Cooper, who also designs courses at Poplar Place, The Fork and Morven Park. The show jumping course designer is Marc Donovan, who we usually see at Carolina International and Plantation Field.
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TOP TEN
1. Buck Davidson and Ballynoe Castle RM: Fun fact: Buck has competed Reggie in the Advanced division at Millbrook three times, in 2010, 2011 and 2012. He won each time. This weekend should be no different.
Reggie averages a 27.6 for this particular dressage test, which is nearly three points better than his overall average. While his recent experiences with Tremaine Cooper courses all come at the Fork, he has a history of going double clear over them — or any courses, really. This horse usually jumps double clear over Marc Donovan’s courses to top off a good weekend. Look for this pair to reclaim their title on a score in the high 20s.
Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair. Photo courtesy of Rare Air Photography.
2. Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair: This will be Maya and Cody’s first trip to Millbrook, and they should make a splash this weekend. Maya’s placing will highly depend on her choice of speed across the country, and she may choose to take a slower pace without an immediate CCI on the horizon.
An average of 31.5 on this dressage test will have Maya stalking the top of the leaderboard after the first phase. In their only experience with a Tremaine Cooper course, Maya and Doesn’t Play Fair finished double clear at The Fork in the spring. This horse does average one rail over Marc Donovan’s courses, but it shouldn’t ultimately affect their placing. Maya and Doesn’t Play Fair should be the best of the rest on a score in the mid-30s.
3. Lynn Symansky and Donner: Lynn moved Donner up to Advanced at this venue in 2011, and he hasn’t competed in the Advanced division since. As with Maya, a top placing will depend on Lynn’s desire to go quickly across the country, which she usually does only at the last event before a big CCI. With a trip to Burghley lurking the first weekend of September, we might see her tightening the screws here.
Donner averages a 31.4 on this test, which should be enough to land a top five placing after dressage. A quick trip across Tremaine’s course with only 0.4 time penalties will bump them up. This pair does average one rail over Marc’s designs, but they will still maintain third place with a score less than half a point behind Maya.
Laine Ashker and Anthony Patch. Photo by Jenni Autry.
4. Laine Ashker and Anthony Patch: Laine’s mentor Buck dominated this division for three years straight with Ballynoe Castle RM, and then Laine stepped up to the plate in 2013, winning this division for two years running. The presence of Reggie might prevent her from completing her own hat trick, but a fourth-place finish in a stacked division should set her up nicely for her own trip to Burghley.
Extremely consistent on the flat, Laine and Anthony Patch average a 29.8 on this particular test. These two are notorious for quick cross country rounds and average 4.4 time penalties overall on Tremaine’s Millbrook courses. These two have had clear rounds the past two years at this venue, but a change of course designer to Marc Donovan could mean a rail this year. A solid finish with a score in the mid-to-high 30s will see Laine take home fourth place.
5. Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Cubalawn: Phillip and Fernhill Cubalawn have their own overseas trip coming up as they head to the Aachen CICO3* Nations Cup next month. Although this horse took a tumble in show jumping at Great Meadow, he is extremely consistent in all three phases and should regain his form nicely here.
Phillip and this horse have yet to perform this particular test together, but average 32.5 overall. If they match their average pace over Tremaine’s courses, they should rack up no more than 2.8 time penalties. Fernhill Cubalawn is a good jumper but tends to have one down over Marc’s courses. A score in the high 30s will help this pair round out the top five.
Sally Cousins and Abecca GS. Photo by Jenni Autry.
6. Sally Cousins and Abecca GS: Abecca GS just moved up to Advanced this spring at the Fork, and this mare has shown real promise. Sally is a strong cross country rider who will soon sort out any mistakes the mare has made, and a strong showing on the flat and in the show jumping will bump these two up the ranks.
Sally and Becca average a 34.3 on this particular test, which will put them in good stalking range. Abecca GS ran clear with 10.4 time penalties over Tremaine’s course at The Fork. While this mare hasn’t jumped over a Marc Donovan course yet, she’s only accumulated rails in one of her four outings and will likely jump double clear here. A final score in the mid-to-low 40s will snag these two sixth place.
7. Lillian Heard and Share Option: Lillian is forming quite a string for herself, as she will be running four horses in the Advanced division this weekend. The headliner is still her Rolex partner, Share Option, whose jumping prowess often propels him into top placings.
Whitey isn’t particularly fond of this test and averages a 38.4 on it, nearly three points higher than his typical average. He’ll make up ground across the country, as this pair typically has only 6.8 time penalties over Tremaine’s courses. Share Option is as careful as they come and typically averages double clear rounds. A final score in the mid-40s will cement their place in seventh.
Colleen Rutledge and Escot 6. Photo by Jenni Autry.
8. Colleen Rutledge and Escot 6: We’re used to seeing Covert Rights at the top of the list, but this weekend, Escot 6 will take center stage for Colleen. Jumping and time faults are bigger factors than dressage scores this weekend, and Escot 6 is both swift and careful.
Escot 6 doesn’t have much patience for the flat, averaging a 40.2 for this test. However, this pair was very swift in their only attempt at a Tremaine course at The Fork, accumulating 1.2 time penalties. When they show jumped over a Marc Donovan course at Carolina, they had one rail, and overall have not yet had more than one rail at this level. Colleen and Escot 6 will be breathing down Lillian’s neck, with a score less than half a point behind.
9. Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless: Fernhill Fearless is returning to the level this weekend for the first time since WEG, and it’s great to see him out and about again. Kim will undoubtedly be looking for a good preparatory run for the fall season.
Fernhill Fearless has an aptitude for this test; his average of 33.7 is lower than his typical score. Kim does tend to take him slightly slower over Tremaine’s courses and generally accumulates 8.8 penalties. Although overall Fernhill Fearless show jumps double clear, he does have a tendency to pull a rail over Marc Donovan’s courses. Kim will end up in ninth on a score just over a point behind Colleen.
Ryan Wood and Frankie. Photo by Jenni Autry.
10. Ryan Wood and Frankie: Frankie has been flying a bit under the radar, but is a very promising prospect for Ryan. Most recently placing second in his first CIC3* at Jersey Fresh, I don’t think this horse will be unnoticed for much longer.
Frankie averages a score of 36.7 on this test, putting him in stalking range after dressage. Although he has yet to see a Tremaine Cooper course, Ryan averages 12.4 time penalties on him overall. Frankie is also quite careful and has jumped double clear in four of his five rounds at this level, including Marc Donovan’s Carolina International course. A score just under50 will sneak this pair into the top 10.
Colleen Rutledge and Covert Rights. Photo courtesy of Rare Air Photography.
THE DARK HORSE
Colleen Rutledge and Covert Rights: Based on the numbers, Covert Rights just missed out on the top 10 by a whisker. As we all have seen, dressage is a strength for this horse and is only getting better. Cross country is a strength for this horse, and he is only getting faster.
His only apparent weakness is in the show jumping, where he sometimes has one or two rails. In particular, CR skews towards an average of two rails over Marc Donovan’s courses, despite his overall average leaning towards only one rail. Not one of the horses in the projected top 10 are likely to have more than one rail come Sunday. If Colleen can help CR have one rail or less, they’ll pop right into the top placings.
Lillian Heard and Arundel. Photo by Jenni Autry.
THE SLEEPER
Lillian Heard and Arundel: Lillian picked up a strong competitor in Arundel when she was given the ride by his owner, Abbie Golden. Abbie had previously competed this horse up through the CIC3* level in 2013 and early 2014 before heading off to law school and handing Lillian the reins.
Lillian has been competing Arundel all spring at the two-star level, with dressage scores in the 40s or even 30s, swift cross country runs, and mostly good show jumping results. Between the experienced horse and experienced rider, expect some solid results out of this pair for the fall season.
Kim Severson and Cooley Cross Border. Photo by Jenni Autry.
THE SPOILER
Kim Severson and Cooley Cross Border: Kim is moving this former Young Event Horse graduate up to the big time this weekend, and it might be hit or miss. No one can forget the phenomenal dressage score this horse laid down in the Ocala CCI2* in April, but those dressage scores aren’t always followed up by clean cross country rounds. If these two come home clear in the horse’s first Advanced, they may steal the whole show. Certainly this will be one to keep an eye on this weekend.
We’re excited to be bringing you EN’s predictions for the Advanced division in the official Millbrook program! Be sure to pick up a copy of the Millbrook program and follow along with our picks all weekend along. Visit www.millbrookhorsetrials.com for much more information.
