By the Numbers: Stable View Advanced

Stable View is in just its second year of running the Advanced Oktoberfest Horse Trials, but already the venue has established itself as the place to be on the first weekend of October. With $65,000 in prize money on the line alongside a huge investment in the course and footing, competitors are flocking from north, south and west to what has quickly established itself as a premier event.

The Advanced division starts today with dressage at 8 a.m. EST, followed by show jumping on Saturday at noon EST and cross country on Sunday at noon EST. Both jumping phases for the Advanced and Intermediate divisions will stream live on EQTV starting at 10:20 a.m. Saturday and 10:20 a.m. Sunday with commentary from our own Jenni Autry, plus special guests.

Stable View LinksWebsite, OmnibusRide TimesLive Scores, Live Stream

Photo courtesy of Stable View.

The Event

  • Boyd Martin was the only rider last year to not only finish inside the time across the country, but also finish on his dressage score with Steady Eddie. The eventual winners, Phillip Dutton and Z, came close, adding only 0.4 time penalties to their dressage score.
  • Only 48% of those who started cross country last year completed without jump penalties on Capt. Mark Phillips’ cross country course. That is significantly lower than the Advanced level clear completion rate of 61% for 2016 in the U.S.
  • Three riders scored in the 20s in dressage last year but only Phillip Dutton and Z completed on a score in the 20s.

Katie Ruppel and Houdini. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Dressage Divas

  • Katie Ruppel and Houdini have scored in the 20s (or the FEI equivalent) in their last five Advanced and three-star starts together. These two very consistently hover near their two-year average of 28.6 for the first phase.
  • Charlie Tango and Heather Morris are no strangers to winning the dressage phase, having led the field in their last four consecutive starts after day one. An average of 29.9 at this level should have them challenging for the lead.
  • Boyd Martin has a top prospects for day one in Shamwari 4. While his three-star/Advanced record is sparse over the past couple of years, a look back reveals an average dressage score of 30.8 over the past three calendar years.
  • Tamie Smith has brought the talented gray Fleeceworks Royal to the East Coast this fall, and while lightly competed at this level, she’s most recently demonstrated that she’s a horse who can strike into the 20s. Her most recent start at the Rebecca Farm CIC3* yielded the FEI equivalent of a 28.4.

Heather Morris and Charlie Tango. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Show Jumping Powerhouses

  • Crackerjack continues to impress in the show jumping phase, particularly when the phase is held prior to cross country. Throughout his entire career at this level, when show jumping runs first, Crackerjack has jumped clear in 13 of 14 starts with Boyd Martin in the irons.

Joe Meyer and Clip Clop. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Cross Country Machines

  • Charlie Tango is another who runs fast when he runs clean, with an average pace of fifteen seconds over optimum when running clear at this level. Consistency in this phase will be the bigger question, but this pair have finished in the top two of the nine Advanced and three-star competitions they’ve completed.
  • If you’re noticing a trend with Crackerjack, it’s because we think he is the horse to beat this weekend. An average of 7.2 time penalties on cross country at this level over the past two seasons makes him one of the fastest horses in the field with Boyd Martin, who was also the only rider to make the time in the Advanced at this event last year.
  • Joe Meyer is an exceptionally fast cross country rider, and partnered with pocket rocket Clip Clop they make a speedy combination in this phase. An average of 7.6 time penalties at this level will see them climb the leaderboard in the final phase.

PREDICTED WINNER: Boyd Martin and Crackerjack

Boyd Martin and Crackerjack. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Potential Spoiler:

  • Heather Morris and Charlie Tango

Keep Your Eye On:

  • Katie Ruppel and Houdini
  • Boyd Martin and Tsetserleg
  • Tamie Smith and Wembley

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