Get out your red pen, warm up the forums, I am about to make some personal predictions and I am sure you will disagree with at least part if not every single word of what follows below.
Let’s soldier on. For starters it is an Olympic year, that means that every elite rider is gunning for selection on their respective National team. We have about 5 months until the Games, some big key events and I, ESJ, am going to read the tea leaves and name the teams I think will represent their Nation for what I think are the seven countries that have a chance of winning gold in London.
The plan is simple, this story will identify the five riders that will represent Canada, then we will tackle Team USA, the Aussies, the Kiwis, I will look at the Poms (UK), Frogs (France) and finally the Krauts (Germany).
I know this is fraught but why not at least engage in the debate, this is all a bit of fun and who knows I may actually get a few combinations right. As a side note, I am well aware of the sacrifices each and every rider makes to even be considered to ride for their Nation. I am not trying to make light of that effort, this story and those that follow, is simply that–a story. I am not a selector, nor do I have ANY influence with any selector from any Nation, these are my opinions and analysis alone.
I am going to kick off with Canada and would prefer you to read the whole story before you storm off about that crazy Aussie guy.
Here goes nothing. Canada is still riding high off their silver medal at WEG in Kentucky and David O’Connor is looking forward to going out on a high as Canuck team coach. He has a great pool of riders and some depth in horses to play with, so who are the contenders for the Canadians?
Don’t worry I have not been completely random, I have trawled the Canadian Short and Long Lists [PDF] for my selection, I have looked at results and consistency. The big question, as always, is fitness.
I will say right now that I believe Canada will send an all female team. In my opinion, none of their male combinations is currently up to the task.
Peter Barry is at the top of the short list by virtue of alphabetical order so lets examine Peter and Kilroden Abbott–they have had 20 XC penalties and lots of time in last 2 CCI starts, their last clear CCI was in Oct 2010. I think there are better options to look at.
Peter is the only guy on the short list, as we progress to the long list and find James Atkinson with Gustav–they are a green 2 star combination and won’t be travelling. The only other male rider with any three or four star form is Kyle Carter.
Sadly, Kyle and Madison Park didn’t have a good trip to the UK last year, and I don’t expect to see Kyle in London this year. So that really only leaves the ladies, and Canada has some class performers.
Lets start with Jessica Phoenix and Exponential (I would pick a fit Exponential over Pavorotti). This pair had a good not great result at Burghley last year that proves they can cross the ditch and still get it together. Their Rolex and WEG results also help. I know Exponential was withdrawn after XC at WEG but with this effort, who could be surprised.
The next name as you go down the list is Hawley and Gin & Juice. This combination traveled to the UK twice last year to tackle the big four stars Badminton and Burghley. On both occasions their results were less than stellar and not consistent with their continental US results. I don’t think Gin & Juice travels well and for this reason I have left them off my Canadian team, in the number six spot, subject to the fitness of others.
Diana Burnett has three nominated mounts as possibilities for London. Manny, her four star mount, has no recent form since being withdrawn at Rolex last year, which suggests a fitness issue. Diana’s younger horse Diamond Cut III is not established at three star and so is highly doubtful for a four star Games. I do like the look of Shigatzi and have put this combination on my maybe list. I have a doubt about them with time on XC and jumping but lets leave them as a maybe for the moment.
Lisa Marie Fergusson and the late Smart Move would have made my team, they had shown some really promising results and, although the horse was young, consistent clear XC and clear jumping put them on my team. The loss of Smart Move at the beginning of such a promising career is not just a loss to Lisa Marie but Canadian Eventing.
Jessica Hampf and her Aussie bred High Society III have picked up 20 XC penalties and 20 time penalties at the last two Rolex’s–this drops them off the team for me. Besides, imagine the confusion of two Jess’s on the team (in all seriousness, I am not using this as criteria).
Rebecca Howard and Riddle Master make the team. They are very consistent with low 50s dressage scores, no XC faults and with the occasional time on XC or jumping rail, they are still consistent enough performers to be on the team.
Micheline Jordan and Irish Diamonds–unfortunately they have too many inconsistencies on XC for my liking. I had to leave them off the team.
Kendal Lehari and Daily Edition–this is an interesting pair. At CIC events they perform really well as very consistent real contenders. Unfortunately the picture is not as good at the CCI level. In their last five CCI starts this combination have had 20 XC, 20 Jumping, Retired, Withdrawn, and 16.4 XC time with 8 Jumping. I’d take them to a CIC but not a CCI.
The final combination on the Canadian Short List (the official one, not mine) is Kathryn Robinson and Let it Bee. This is a relatively green combination but they are UK based and rode at the test event. This is my reserve combination, if one of the horses doesn’t step off the plane well, these guys are a solid back up.
Before we finish up with the Canucks, lets have a quick glance at the Long List for any other contenders. I only see two, both great performers with solid results behind them but both a question of fitness given the lack of activity behind them in the last six months. The spring season will decide how they fall as far as the team goes but if both are fit and back to form, I would pick them.
These two are Stephanie Rhodes-Bosch with Port Authority and Selena O’Hanlon with Colombo. Both had a bad day at last year’s Badminton and both are capable of very good dressage. I know that Hawley and GNJ had a better day at Badminton than both of these combinations, but I am concerned that the second result not to usual form by Hawley in the UK may be a sticking point.
No other combinations jump out at me, so where does that leave us?
Jessica Phoenix – Exponential
Rebeccca Howard – Riddle Master
If they can prove fit this spring then:
Stephanie Rhodes-Bosch – Port Authority
Selena O’Hanlan – Colombo
With, next in line
Diana Burnett – Shigatzi
Hawley Bennett-Awad – Gin & Juice
Finally as in-country reserve should something go wrong in the UK:
Kathryn Robinson – Let it Bee
This is a strong team whichever way the fitness falls, surprisingly no men, but this all women team is very capable of bringing home gold.
I leave you with these thoughts, engage in the debate, keep it nice and I will be back soon with my thoughts on Team USA.
Yours in Eventing,
ESJ
