Rolex Competitors Preview (5/7) and Weather

Check out Part 1Part 2Part 3Part 4Part 5Part 6Part 7 of EN’s Rolex competitor previews, and vote in today’s poll as Eventing Nation works our way toward a collective Rolex prediction.  So far the riders who have made it onto the next round are: Allison, Will Faudree, Mara Dean, Phillip and Kheops, Kim, Hawley Bennett-Awad, Boyd and Neville, Bonnie, Leslie Law.

The 10 day forecast for Lexington predicts showers throughout Rolex weekend.  Considering that it seems like meteorologists are wrong over 50% of the time, I take this as mild to strong good news at this time.

I am hearing chatter that the Icelandic volcano eruption that has grounded many European flights is interfering with the travel of several Rolex officials.  No word yet on European riders or horses, but Oliver Townend’s and WFP’s horses are already in the US for certain.  Most news reports suggest that our friends in Europe are able to find ways around the flight cancellations by taking different routes.
Finally, I have heard the faintest rumor that their might be a last minute rider change on one of the Rolex horses, so we will keep you posted about that over the next couple of days if there is anything to it.  Now, onto our preview:

Will Coleman and Twizzel: Homepage

Will and Twizzel are one of the USA’s best pairs, and they are as likely as anyone right now to make the WEG squad, except for Phillip and Buck.  That said, if Will rides XC at Rolex, I will go streaking on Sunday.  Will broke his collar bone 12 days ago at The Fork, he had surgery to repair the break.  Even if he could, I can’t think of any reason why Will would run at Rolex rather than waiting for the Luhmuhlen CCI4* in mid June.  I am even more confident saying this because word in the barns is that Will has already received an ‘OK’ from the USET to run at Luhmuhlen.  Will placed 5th at Luhmuhlen last year with Twizzel, and they should still be considered favorites to make the WEGs.

Phillip Dutton and The Foreman: Homepage

Continuing our discussion of how Phillip makes the time on XC better than anyone else, one of the things Phillip helps teach his students is to save a second before, over, and after each jump.  Saving a second before the fence means improving the length of time it takes to collect from gallop to the suitable canter for the obstacle, saving a second over the fence mean taking a smart line, and saving a second after the fence means galloping away efficiently.  If you can save three seconds over every fence on a course with 30+ elements…do the math.  When you watch Phillip ride this weekend, observe how close he gallops to the ropes, and the efficient lines he takes with his horses.

Phillip has such a great relationship with ‘Chip’ that you will really get to see all of Phillip’s time saving techniques on display with this horse on Saturday.  Chip hasn’t competed in a 4* since 2005, but in that year he completed both Rolex and Burghley with a grand total of 4 jumping penalties for both events and finished 2nd at each.  Chip is also perhaps the best show jumper in the field with one rail in 8 previous rounds.  Oh, and Chip hasn’t had a stop since 2003.  Oh, and he dropped a 24.7 at Southern Pines in the best dressage test I have ever seen him have.  Chip is Jimmy’s runner up pick for Rolex, but we have to consider that Ms. Jones threatened Jimmy not to jinx the horse.  I haven’t been threatened yet (maybe my picks are considered the anti-jinx when you factor in EN Karma), but I’ll hold off on making my final pick until later.  For now, let’s just say that if Chip competes through the weekend, he’s as close to a lock for a top-3 finish as you will ever find.

Kristi Nunnink and R-Star: Bio

Our fun fact about Kristi is that she is coached by Derek Di Grazia out in California.  Kristi and R-Star (16.2 Greg Holsteiner M) are another west coast pair making their Rolex debut, and they are perhaps the best of that bunch.  R-Star is just 8 years old, but shows great potential, with clean rounds in her last 16 XC rides and a quality show jumping record.  I think Kristi will take her time around the XC to give this young mare a good experience, but they are a pair to keep an eye on for the future.

Debbie Rosen and The Alchemyst: Homepage

Wow, the west coast is really showing up at Rolex this year!  Debbie and The Alchemyst have a stop at their only advanced competition this spring, the CIC3* at Galway, but they jumped around Rolex ’09 to finish in 25, and a similar placing this year would be a quality weekend.

Boyd Martin and Remington XXV: FanpageHomepageBlog


Our fun fact about Boyd is that he likes the Hilltop Hoods.  Jimmy jokingly doesn’t give Remington much of a chance at Rolex this year, but that’s the story of this horse’s career.  Two years ago I thought Remi would make some young rider a very nice first prelim horse, but Boyd has shown once again that he can find the 4* hidden deep within a horse.  It’s the Thomas story and the Neville story all over again; a nightmare for any owner who spends $150K to buy a superstar for their pro.  Remington hasn’t stopped in 31 starts with Boyd, and he was 6th at both the Jersey and the Fair Hill CCI3* last year.  Fine, sit there and tell me that the horse doesn’t have the jump, tell me he’s a little slow, point out that it has a couple of suspect show jumps on its record: I won’t argue with you.  But the horse has guts, and with Boyd that’s good enough for a top-10 even with some time on XC.

(note: I’m not sure if anything in this Hilltop Hoods video is explicit lyrics because I can’t understand what they are saying, but it’s entirely possible)

Selena O’Hanlon and Columbo (CAN): Facebook

After a tough 2008 with a stop at Rolex and two stops at the Olympics, Selena and Columbo had a quality 2009, finishing just within the ribbons at Rolex.  With her experience and consistency of late, Selena should win the ‘Crosby trophy’ as the highest placed Canadian at Kentucky this year, with a shot at the top 10 if they pick up the pace on XC, eh?  Our fun fact about Selena is that she and her mom make a great team at the events.

Michael Pollard and Wonderful Will: Bio

Michael bought Wonderful Will from Mike Winter around the time Mike moved to England last year.  Wonderful Will gives me the impression of controlled (sorta) chaos on XC, but his attacking style suits Michael and they had a great looking XC round at The Fork.  Rolex will be Michael’s first three-day with Will, but I’m expecting good things.

Ashley MacVaugh and All’s Fair: Homepage

Our fun fact about Ashley is that she placed 5th individually at the Pan Ams in 2003 with All’s Fair.  All’s Fair is probably the most experienced horse in this field.  All’s Fair has finished 4 Rolex events (’03, ’04, ’06, ’07), jumping around 3 of those cleanly and finishing in 18th, 20th, 20th, and 29th respectively.  All’s Fair also finished Burghley in ’04 with one stop.  The 18 year old Thoroughbred will give Ashley yet another run at Rolex this year and let’s be sure to give the veteran horse a special cheer along the way for being with us at Kentucky for so many years.

EN’s Rolex Pick: Remember that you can vote for three combinations, and the top three will advance to the next round.  Please vote for the 3 pairs that you think will place highest in Kentucky.

 

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