-30 US horse/rider combinations entered in Rolex have declared for the Olympics.
-Many of them were on the original USET training lists to start the year; these horses include Absolute Liberty, RF Rovano Rex, Good Knight, Twizzel, Mr. Medicott, Can’t Fire Me, Loughan Glen, Mighty Nice, and Otis Barbotiere.
If I had to classify the Olympic hopefuls into two groups, to make the short list, it would be those that need “a good outing,” and “those who need to win.” Some horses have had a pretty good winter/spring season, and will be looked at for the team with a good clean XC round and successful dressage and showjumping. Other horses have a bit more ground to make up, and will have to finish quite high in the placings to even enter the conversation. But hey–anyone can win, and a runaway winner at Rolex, beating the foreign entries (which have sadly kicked American tail most years) will go a long way toward earning a team spot.
So… where do these combinations stand? For the sake of this discussion, I will consider all the US entries that have officially declared their intentions to the USOC. They are listed below in no particular order whatsoever.
Needs A Good Outing
Mr. Medicott and Karen O’Connor. I think this horse has had a pretty useful winter season; reports from the training sessions were fairly impressive. Mr. Medicott finished 5th at Red Hills CIC***, and 4th at the Fork CIC***. He’s a horse with international experience, but the question all along has been “Can Karen create a partnership quickly enough to make the Olympics?” Their Rolex performance will tell us a lot about how far they’ve come. Samantha reported a bit of inattention in his dressage test at Red Hills, but he’s a horse who has the physical talents to do well. Karen seems to be a perpetual Team candidate, and if she and Mr. Medicott can put it all together with a top-15 finish they should be well in the running for London.
Boyd Martin and Otis Barbotiere. Obviously, Boyd’s #1 ride is Neville; but Otis could make a nice stand-in if something should go wrong for Neville between now and London. Otis has done alright this spring, with a 5th place finish at the Fork CIC*** not long ago. He has international experience, too, ending up 14th (out of 110) at Boekelo CCI*** last fall. If he continues to develop, and give a good showing (say, top 10, which is within reason) at Rolex, he should be well-respected for Team merit.
Boyd Martin and Remington XXV. I think everybody’s pretty sure Boyd will make the Team this year, but he can only ride one. Remington has a very admirable competition record, with four-star experience and international experience. 12th at Rolex in 2010, 7th at Pau CCI**** later that year, 9th at Rolex last year, and 35th at Boekelo CCI*** last fall puts him ahead of many horses on this list. Not to mention the numerous top placings at US horse trials and CICs. If Remington has a weakness, it would be his XC time faults…he isn’t the fastest on four legs, but he has been able to get the job done. A top-15 placing at Rolex this year will keep him as Neville’s understudy; if he finds some extra speed, his chances will improve.
Allison Springer and Arthur. Arthur’s inconsistencies are pretty well known. When he’s good, he’s very good and capable of beating anyone. But his record has been up and down through the years; he finished in the top-15 at Rolex in 2008 and 2009, but had a rider fall last year. He just won the advanced division at the Fork, and hopefully he can carry the momentum through Rolex. I don’t think he has to win, but I’d like to see a superior performance in all phases, with a top 5 ribbon, before I’d consider him for my Olympic team.
Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen. Clark has a fantastic up-and-coming horse in Loughan Glen. The horse’s competition record is very impressive: his “worst” placing (since going Training level in 2009) is a 12th-place finish at Bromont CCI** 2010. In every other event he completed, the horse has been in the top 10…including 5th place at Blenheim CCI*** last fall (and the only “letters” on his resume are a couple Withdrawals, which are well within reason). Rolex will be Glen’s first four-star, but so far he has passed every challenge with ease– and lots of ribbons. He may be a tad inexperienced for Olympic competition, but he’s a horse for the future and a top-10 finish would make me want him on the short list.
Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice/Fernhill Eagle. Mystery Whisper is probably Phillip’s best at this point, but Mighty Nice or Fernhill Eagle could be the top horse in another barn! A bobble at the Fork CIC*** left Mighty Nice in 25th, but the horse was 12th at Blenheim CCI*** last year. Fernhill Eagle finished 18th at Rolex last year, with a light record since then, though he was 2nd in the Advanced at Red Hills and 12th in Advanced at The Fork. If both horses do their jobs, and Phillip is his usual superhuman self, I expect both horses to be in the top-20 at Rolex without breaking a sweat. And that will be good enough to keep them on the short list as “Mystery Whisper’s Back Up Plan.”
Will Faudree and Andromaque. While this is Andromaque’s first four-star, the dark bay mare has considerable international experience with Will’s trip to England last year. She finished 12th at Boekelo CCI*** in 2010, and had a nice tour of Europe’s CIC***s in 2011, completing Luhmuhlen (11th of 43), Barbury International (34th out of 116), and Hartpury (5th out of 69). Sadly, Will fell at The Fork CIC***, but this pair could still be in contention at Rolex…and for London with a top-10 finish.
Buck Davidson and Absolute Liberty. Buck and Absolute Liberty were the “anchor” on last year’s Gold-medal winning Pan Am Team. A fourth-place finish there is a good accomplishment, though it was technically only a CCI**. However, the mare also finished 4th at Bromont CCI*** in 2011 prior to the Pan Ams. Absolute Liberty hasn’t been as jaw-droppingly impressive this spring as other horses on the Team list, but her record is solid enough thus far and she likely will remain in strong consideration with a top-5 finish.
Will Coleman and Twizzel. Twizzel is 15 this year, and he has some notable achievements on his record: namely, a 5th place finish at Luhmuhlen CCI**** in 2009. However, a rider fall at Rolex last year, and the mysterious lameness in dressage warmup at Burghley leave some questions. Twizzel did finish up 2011 with a 4th place at Fair Hill CCI***, and was most recently 11th in the Advanced at the Fork. A top-10 finish at Rolex will do a lot of good for his Team aspirations; I don’t think the horse’s talent is in question, but perhaps more his soundness, particularly after the Burghley incident.
Becky Holder and Can’t Fire Me. Can’t Fire Me has grown beyond his role of Comet’s little brother, and has really earned a spot of his own. Since last fall, he has won Poplar Place CIC***, was second at Fair Hill CCI***, and has consistently been up the leaderboard in the horse trials this spring, against other Olympic candidates. Becky has some international experience to make up for the horse’s lack thereof, though he was 6th at Bromont CCI*** last spring. Rolex will be his first four-star, and always a tough test…but this pair could be quite competitive, and a top-10 finish will keep them hanging around on the short list.
Needs To Win
Karen O’Connor and Veronica. Veronica has a bit of a mild competition record; thus far, she has only completed five Advanced horse trials (including two CIC***s). She was 12th at Fair Hill CCI*** last fall. She’s still a bit green for my liking, and while she usually brings home a ribbon she hasn’t set the world on fire yet. I like her as a future 4* prospect, but to turn heads for London this year, I think she’d have to finish impressively in the top 3. Karen’s considerable experience will help, but I don’t think we want another Mandiba 2008.
Marilyn Little-Meredith and RF Rovano Rex/RF Demeter. Marilyn has come a very long way in her short time as an Event Rider, and her record is certainly admirable. Both horses are very nice and of international quality; Samantha has spoken glowingly of RF Demeter in particular. Marilyn has a lot to prove going into her first four-star, and I think she will rise to the challenge on at least one horse. It is truly an accomplishment just to complete your first Rolex; finishing clear on cross-country is even better, and a top placing a dream come true. But if you’re trying to make an Olympic team, with minimal eventing experience, you’re going to have to knock my socks off and prove you’re the best among the world’s best. Marilyn has the horses to do it…but there’s a lot of experience on the list ahead of her, and to earn her spot she’ll have to beat them all head-on, and look good doing it.
Jolie Wentworth and Good Knight. Good Knight did fairly well at the two-star level in 2010, finishing 3rd and 2nd at the spring and fall Galway CCI**s, with double clear jumping rounds. He started 2011 with a stop at the spring Galway CIC*** and was eliminated at Twin Rivers CIC***. However, Good Knight improved as the year went on, finishing 4th at 2011 Rebecca Farm CIC***, 2nd at Woodside CIC***, and 2nd at Galway CCI***. He enters Rolex this year after finishing 29th at The Fork CIC***, with a stop on cross-country. This horse is a bit too inconsistent and not experienced enough to be worthy of London conversation unless he shows up everyone at Rolex in a big way.
Kristi Nunnink and R-Star. Sadly, Kristi and R-Star have not had a good go at Rolex the last two years, with a crashing fall at The Hollow in 2010 and an unfortunate tip-over at the flower tables last year. They are an nice pair with much to like, and finished 8th at Fair Hill CCI*** last October. R-Star finished 16th at the Fork CIC*** recently, but doesn’t have a realistic shot at an Olympic berth. A convincing win would be needed to make London a possibility.
Laine Ashker and Anthony Patch. Anthony Patch actually has more CCI finishes than several mentioned on this list– he’s finished in the top 20 at Rolex twice, and top-15 at CCI***s twice. Still, he and Laine remain just a bit on the outside looking in, when it comes to the Team list. The horse has only done four horse trials since Rolex last year, and while that could be good enough preparation for Rolex 2012, it leaves him behind the rest of the team candidates. A Rolex win would be necessary to add Anthony Patch in the London race.
Doug Payne and Running Order. From the Training Session reports, Doug and Running Order are making some good progress this year. The horse has had two good finishes at CCI***s– a 3rd at Jersey last spring, and 6th at Fair Hill last fall. However, his only international trip– Boekelo CCI*** 2010– is probably best forgotten (76th place out of 107). The horse’s record is a bit up and down, with some top placings and some lower ones scattered about. This could be a pair to build on for the future, but to be considered for London this year, I think Doug has to bring home a Rolex watch…and not the one given away in a raffle.
Holly Payne and Madeline. This pair has been going Advanced since 2008, so they have an edge on some others when it comes to demonstrating a strong partnership. However, their record is a bit thin on CCIs– showing only two respectable finishes at Fair Hill CCI*** (12th in 2008, and 14th in 2011), and a 38th place finish at Blenheim CCI*** in 2009. Lots of horse trials and CICs with scattered results…mostly solid, but not outstanding enough for Team merit. A top-25 showing at Rolex could be expected from this pair, but again, a convincing win would be necessary to enter the Team conversation.
Sharon White and Rafferty’s Rules. Rafferty’s Rules is another horse with a solid, but not spectacular record. He has finished well at North American CCI***s, including 7th at Fair Hill 2009, 4th at Jersey 2010, and 5th at Bromont 2011. However, his 2010 British placings at Hartpury CIC*** (42nd) and Blenheim CCI*** (49th) are disappointing when considering London implications. I think Rafferty’s Rules could be competitive at Rolex, but this pair is solidly on the “Must Win” list for the Olympics.
Holly Hudspeth and Last Monarch. Last Monarch is a talented horse with some depth back in his record, but is too light on recent form leading up to the Games. He has four-star experience, finishing 17th at Rolex back in 2010, but he has not been to a CCI since then. Most recently 19th at The Fork CIC***, he could be in the top-20 at Rolex again this year, and I think Holly would be pleased. Their London hopes are slim, a good performance not enough– must win.
Heather Morris and Slate River. Another nice pair, Heather and Slate River have respectable finishes at Rolex 2011 (22nd) and Fair Hill CCI*** 2009 (11th). The horse has been only lightly competed– hardly at all in 2010, and he had all of 2011 off after Rolex. Slate River has some good finishes, including a 3rd at Advanced at Pine Top this year. However, his weak record leaves him well off the London list unless he does something spectacular to win Rolex going away.
Emily Beshear and Here’s To You. After winning Jersey Fresh CCI** in 2009, things were looking pretty good for Emily and Here’s To You. However, he didn’t quite retain that form, with a weak 2010 season. Here’s To You bounced back a little last year, finishing 8th at Bromont CCI***, 4th place at the AECs, and 10th at Fair Hill CCI***. Retiring at The Fork CIC*** isn’t a great way to go into Rolex, but this pair could still pull off a good top-20 finish and build on their past success. The Olympics seems a bit far-fetched, but as with the others, winning changes everything.
Debbie Rosen and The Alchemyst. Debbie and The Alchemyst are no strangers to the Advanced level. They finished 19th at Jersey Fresh CCI*** back in 2008, and completed Rolex in 2009 and 2010 finishing 25th and 36th, respectively. Unfortunately, their record also shows quite a few disappointing results in with their placings…rider fall at 2008 Fair Hill CCI***, eliminated at 2010 Galway CCI***, eliminated at 2011 Galway CIC*** 2011, retired at 2011 Rolex, and retired at 2011 Gallway CCI***. Having had some “letters” on my own record, I know there can be simple explanations for those bad moments…but it doesn’t look good for a Team bid. The pair goes into Rolex this year off a 10th place finish at Galway CIC***, and will have to shock the world with a whopping win to have any sort of outside chance at London.
Kristen Bond and Are You Ready. Another pair with little realistic chance for London, Kristen and Are You Ready do not seem quite ready for the Team. Their best result is a win at Millbrook Advanced HT in 2010, and a 29th place finish at Fair Hill CCI*** last fall. Their record is a bit weak overall, and it seems a good effort at Rolex should be their goal. There is pretty much no way they could make the Olympics, though winning on a sub-40 score could change that.
Sara Kozumplik and Manolo Blahnik. Manolo Blahnik finished 5th at Bromont CCI** in 2010, but has had an inconsistent record thus far at the Advanced level. He was 30th at The Fork Advanced HT last year, retired at Jersey CIC***, 8th at Rebecca CIC***, and won at Morven Advanced before finishing middle of the pack (24th) with a stop at 2011 Fair Hill CCI***. This spring, Manolo Blahnik was 9th at Red Hills CIC***, and 22nd at The Fork CIC***. At the Fork, he jumped double clear on xc, but had a dismal dressage score of 72. London would appear out of reach this year, unless he really puts on a show in all three phases…definitely a must-win for any consideration.
Barb Crabo and Eveready. Barb and Eveready had a shaky start at Advanced, attempting Rolex in 2009 but were eliminated. The horse had most of 2010 off, and came out guns blazing in 2011, never finishing worse than 5th at Advanced. His season included a win at 2011 AECs, 5th at Rebecca Farm CIC***, and 3rd at Galway CCI***. However, other than the AECs, Eveready hasn’t left the West Coast since finishing 30th at 2009 Fair Hill CCI***. He is clearly a good horse, but it’s hard to know just how good when most of the stiff competition is based in the East. Rolex will be a true test and a good measuring stick for the pair. A top-5 finish will turn some heads– yes, California eventing IS for real! — but I think it will take a blue ribbon to put them on the short list.
Buck Davidson and Titanium. Titanium has a respectable record– you can pretty much bet he’ll be in the ribbons at any given horse trial. His three-day record includes a 7th at 2009 Jersey CCI***, 16th at 2010 Rolex, and 11th at Galway CCI*** last fall. He was withdrawn from 2009 Fair Hill CCI*** and 2011 Rolex, and retired at 2011 Bromont CCI***. He generally goes clear around cross-country, and his dressage is okay but not quite at Team standards (ranging from high 50s to 60s at CCIs). He’s a horse who’s had his chances to step up and be Buck’s #1, but just hasn’t quite got there. Titanium’s a nice horse and would likely make a team for some lesser countries…but I think the US team has other options unless he happens to beat them all.
Jolie Wentworth and Killian O’Connor. Jolie and Killian are another dark-horse pair with a decent competition history. They finished 16th at 2008 Jersey Fresh CCI***, and 18th at Rolex in 2009 with a good showing…however they have not completed a three-day event since then (withdrew from Fair Hill CCI*** in ’09). The pair basically took 2010 and 2011 off, save for a couple outings at Preliminary in the fall of last year. They enter Rolex this year off an Intermediate HT win and a 4th place finish at Galway CIC***. They have both been to Rolex before, but they could be forgiven for being a bit rusty. I give them slim-to-none chance for London consideration without a huge upset.
Michael Pollard and Icarus. Icarus is the only representative of Michael’s “Gray Group of Olympic Hopefuls” making a start at Rolex, and certainly the most experienced of them. The elimination at Burghley last year was a big blemish on the horse’s record. He finished 19th at Rolex last year, with a stop on cross country. He won Jersey Fresh CCI*** back in 2009, but didn’t do anything in 2010 save for an Intermediate horse trial. Icarus appears to be in good form going into Rolex this year, with a win at Pine Top Advanced HT, 7th at Red Hills CIC***, and 4th at The Fork Advanced. A top-5 finish is a possibility for this horse, but he probably has to do better than that for selectors to look past last year’s results.
* * * *
In conclusion: there are a good number of horses and riders with a lot to gain from a successful outing at Rolex. And there are many more who are just hoping to shoot for the stars…but what’s wrong with that? If you’re gonna dream, dream big! Rolex stands to play an important part of the US Team selections, but remember that some of our nation’s best aren’t even entered this year: Neville Bardos, Mystery Whisper, and Manoir De Carneville (among others) are sitting this one out. There’s still a lot of eventing to be done between now and London, and I’m sure things will shake up along the way. Good luck to all competitors this weekend, we’ll be cheering for you all!
