Not supposed to be a water jump
Greetings Eventing Nation! If only because we have all been soaking wet at least once today, the weather is on everyone’s mind here at the Kentucky Horse Park. The course, as you can see, is completely soaked. The Horse Park has the best course crew in the world and with the help of good weather forecasts for Thursday and Friday the course should be much improved by Saturday. They mentioned at the riders briefing that there are backup plans for adjusting the course if the water doesn’t drain soon enough from some complexes. Here are a few other notes from Rolex:
–I think Derek di Grazia’s first Rolex is a really good looking course but it is on the straightforward side. The course is a legitimate 4* course but it doesn’t look as big or as technical as Badminton. There are several very tough questions that will catch a few horses, but the Head of the Lake is as straightforward as I have ever seen and the riders have a lot of time to think between the fences.
–With Phillip not presenting Truluck, one of the best pairs is out of the Rolex field. There are just 45 horses left in the field and Mark, Mary, William, Oliver, and Clayton have to feel like sharks circling the Rolex trophy. Maybe I just have Badminton colored glasses but as I look through the Rolex field, I honestly feel like it’s going to take the weekend of a lifetime for someone to catch the British based competitors.
–In terms of US horses with a chance to win, Arthur should be right up there after the dressage and if Remington has a good enough test then he will almost surely finish on it. Michael Pollard’s Icarus is one of the most talented horses in the field if he can stay calm on Thursday. Will Coleman and Twizzel are one of the most well rounded pairs in the competition and they definitely have a shot to win with the right dressage score. Kristin Bachman and Gryffindor had a great performance here in 2007 that was thwarted by going off course in the show jumping, but if they can capture the dressage and cross-country from that year then they could be right up there. And then of course there is Kim and Tipperary Liadhnan, who haven’t had much preparation this year, but they might be the most rock solid cross-country pair in the field. And of course, you can never count Phillip out no matter how inexperienced his horse is.
–Titanium, Exponential, Riddle Master, R-Star, Critical Decision, Manny, Ballinakill Glory, and The Alchemyst are all incredible 4* horses but they will need a really great dressage performance to be in winning position. Karen and Quin are a wild card because the horse has all the ability to win but needs to put that ability together in all three phases to win the watch.
–My gut tells me that two or three young guns will surge to the top of the pack and make a name for themselves this weekend. Ringwood Magister is one of the best 3 horses in the field, and Tiana has competed at Rolex once before so they are a pair to watch. The OCET duo, Hannah Burnett and Olivia Loiacono, ride two super talented rocket ships of horses. Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville should have a great weekend and they looked like one of the best pairs on the cross-country at The Fork. Ok, you say ‘John, you’re cheating and just mentioning every horse.’ Very well, here’s my prediction.
–For me, simple is better. Mark Todd and Grass Valley were 10th at the WEGs and no horse that beat them there is in the Rolex field. Every weekend is different but Mark is obviously riding incredibly well right now and I have to think that for Mark lightning could strike twice in two straight weekends. Clayton Frederick’s Be My Guest would be my second pick as they placed 3rd at Burghley last year.
–Samantha already mentioned this, but I spoke with Karen today and she said that Mandiba broke 6 ribs in his fall from the Normandy Bank at Badminton. Mandiba is going to spend some time recovering in England before shipping back to the States. If you’ve ever broken your ribs, they heal well but they are terribly painful until they heal because every breath aggravates them. We wish Mandiba a speedy recovery.
