AEC combined test results

You do not want to miss a second on Eventing Nation over the next couple of days.  For our one or two readers who haven’t noticed Eventign Nation’s pattern, we usually do a morning, lunchtime, and afternoon/evening post each day and breaking news as it happens.  Rest assured–there will be breaking news in the next couple of days as both the US and Canadian teams get named.  I also have a bunch of analysis, inside info, and ridiculous commentary to get to on Monday and Tuesday.  Don’t worry selectors–I have already done all the work for you.  But, before we ruffle everyone’s feathers, I thought I’d start the week off with a nice and easy AEC follow-up post.  

One of the complications posed to the selectors at the AECs is that different riders had different strategies on the cross-country and some horses didn’t even run cross-country.  So looking at the full competition results as a measure of performance is pretty useless without a contextual understanding.  The only two phases at the AECs where every rider put their full effort into getting the best score possible are the dressage and show jumping.  Therefore, as one exercise to analyze the selection trials results, I have composed a combined test leaderboard.  This combined test leaderboard is the only full effort head-to-head competition that the entire short list has had against each other–ever.  Obviously, this only represents the dressage and show jumping performance at one event, so it should be very much taken as one tiny piece of the entire selection puzzle.  

1. Allison Springer and Arthur  35.7  +4  =  39.7

2. Phillip Dutton and The Foreman  41.5  +0  =  41.5

3. Phillip Dutton and Woodburn  42.3  +0  =  42.3

4. Phillip and Connaught  42.8  +0  =  42.8

5. Karen and Mandiba  42.8  +0  =  42.8

6. Boyd and Remington  43.8  +0  =  43.8

8. Will Faudree and Pawlow  44.0  +0  =  44.0

9. Kim Severson and Tipperary Liadhnan  44.5  +0  =  44.5

12. Buck and My Boy Bobby  46.8  +0  = 46.8

13. Buck and Ballynoecastle RM  47.5  +4  =  51.5

14. Boyd and Neville  48.5  48.5  +4  =  52.5

15. Amy Tryon and Leyland  46.8  +8  =  54.8

16. Holly Hudspeth and Last Monarch  55.2  +0  =  55.2

17. Buck and Titanium  57.0  +5  =  62.0

1. Hawley Bennet-Awad and Gin & Guice  46.0  +4  = 50.0

2. Selena O’Hanlon and Colombo  48.8  +7  =  55.8

3. Steph Rhodes-Bosch and Port Authority  53.3  +4  =  57.3

5. Jessica Phoenix and Exponential  59.7  +0  =  59.7

6. Ian Roberts and Napalm  59.7  +1  =  60.1

7. Diana Burnett and Manny  50.7  +15  =  65.7

8. Kyle Carter and Madison Park 64.0  +6  =  70.0

So, now that we have figured out whose going to be on the WEG teams, let’s all take a coffee break, right?  Hardly.  But these rankings do bear some interesting findings.  For example, The Foreman beat Woodburn by 0.8 points; is that enough to help justify taking the older horse with more mileage?  Probably not.  Remington beat Neville by 9 points; is that enough to take the horse who has only been to one 4* over the horse who has proven himself at several?  Perhaps.  The highest placed Canadian scored three points higher than the 12th placed US rider; is this a concern?  Maybe, but of course looking at the combined test doesn’t consider the XC, which is where the Canadians really moved up at Rolex.  

My main point is that comparing pairs of riders and horses in eventing is extremely hard because there are an almost infinite number of factors to consider.  We’ll give it our best shot here on Eventing Nation over these next couple of days, but I certainly wouldn’t want to be one of the selectors right now.

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As a complete aside, I’d like to give a big thanks to the Chattahoochee Hills, the USEA, and all the volunteers for putting on a great event at the AECs.  I don’t consider myself a member of the media, but Emily and Josh at the USEA were kind enough to make the seating, electrical plugins, and free Gatorade at the media center available to me throughout the weekend.