By the Numbers: Carolina International Advanced

Lillian Heard and Share Option. Photo by Jenni Autry. Lillian Heard and Share Option. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Not to be outdone by the CIC3*, the Advanced at Carolina International was a hefty enough division that it ended up being split in two. The Advanced does have a much higher proportion of young horses, but balances that out with a couple of WEG horses, several horses aimed at Rolex and a couple of Pan Ams hopefuls.

Looking at last year’s results, Carolina is shaping up to be an event where time is king. The winner of both the CIC3* and the Advanced last year finished on their dressage score, and several others made optimum time, or close to it. Many of the more experienced horses who are taking their first run of the year will possibly not be pressing for time, taking them out of the upper placings. Others will be flexing their muscles for the first time at this level, after a couple of early runs this season.

For both divisions of the Advanced, the dressage test will be 2014 USEF A-B. The cross country course designer is Hugh Lochore, and the show jumping course designer is Marc Donovan.

TOP FOUR DIVISION A

1. Lillian Heard and Share Option: Lillian is bringing her four-star partner out for the first time this year. These two had a cracking round at Carolina last year, and a similar effort should help set them up for a win.

Share Option averages a 38.8 on this particular dressage test, which means he won’t be among the leaders after the flat. He’s very careful in the show jumping ring and tends to jump Marc Donovan’s courses double clear, which should push him up the rankings. Lillian and Share Option had only 0.8 time penalties in their only attempt at a Hugh Lochore course. This should nab them the win, with a score just under forty.

Michael Pollard and Mensa. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Michael Pollard and Mensa. Photo by Jenni Autry.

2. Michael Pollard and Mensa G: Michael and Mensa G make a formidable team, and in their last start, they won the Richland Hills CIC3*. Michael chose to let Mensa sit out the fall, but has brought him back out for a spring season.

Michael and Mensa G have a bit of an affinity for this test, with an average of 30.6 penalties. They’ll be right up with the leaders after the first phase, but typically have one rail over Marc Donovan’s show jumping course. An average pace of 8.8 time penalties across the country will drop them down slightly. They should finish in second with a score in the low 40s.

3. Zach Brandt and Cavallino Cocktail: Zach Brandt brought his partner Cavallino Cocktail out for a run in mid-February, and based off that run decided to aim for Rolex. This weekend will be a good course to confirm their aptitude for tackling a four star.

Zach and Cavallino Cocktail have an average of 37.4 when performing this test, which will keep them out of the top initially. They have averaged one rail over Marc Donovan’s courses, but should maintain or improve their standing with that. This mare is very quick across the country, and while she hasn’t seen a Hugh Lochore course yet, she averages only 5.6 time penalties. A quick round will help them move up to third, with a score in the mid to high forties.

4. Lauren Kieffer and Veronica:  While Lauren and Veronica are certainly capable of running fast and clear across the country, Lauren often chooses to take a slower pace and save the quick runs for the CCIs. With a win already under their belt at Red Hills, Lauren will possibly pick a pace closer to their average and save the fast performance for Rolex.

Veronica scores an average of 30.8 penalties on this test, which is a bit better than her typical average. She is another who averages out to one rail rounds over Marc’s courses, but will likely hold her placing anyways. A more sedate pace to match her average of 14.4 time penalties across Hugh’s cross country courses will drop her down to fourth, with a score just under fifty.

TOP FOUR DIVISION B

Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville. Photo by Jenni Autry.

1. Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville: This is the first time we will see Manoir de Carneville out at this level since the World Equestrian Games, and I do not expect they will disappoint. Sinead will be looking for a good run as they prepare for another go at Rolex.

Tate averages a 30.8 in dressage, but has laid down a score as low as 23.8 on this particular test. These two historically do have a rail over Marc Donovan’s courses, which could drop them down a touch. But a quick round with only 3.2 time penalties over Hugh Lochore’s course could bump them back up to the win with a score in the low to mid thirties.

2. Erin Sylvester and No Boundaries: Erin and her reigning USEA Horse of the Year are back on the scene, with an entry for Rolex already on the books. After a top-10 finish at Pau last fall, they’ll be looking for a good round to set them up for a similar placing at Rolex.

Erin and No Boundaries definitely prefer this dressage test, with an average of 33.8, a few points better than their typical performance. A one rail round over Marc Donovan’s courses is typical for this pair. However, a quick round with only 6.4 time penalties over Hugh Lochore’s course will keep them in the ribbons with a score in the mid forties.

3. Liz Halliday-Sharp and HHS Cooley: Liz Halliday-Sharp is fresh off a second place finish at Red Hills with this lovely gray. With an entry for Rolex already listed, Liz will be looking to maintain the momentum going into the late spring.

Liz is another who has some great dressage chops, and HHS Cooley is no slouch himself, averaging 30.4 penalties when he performed this test at Pine Top. He’s also jumped a double clear over a Marc Donovan course before, when he came across the pond to contest the CCI3* at Galway Downs. Recently, he jumped clear with 14.4 time penalties over Hugh Lochore’s Red Hills course, but could easily pick up the pace here. If he matches his Red Hills pace, he’ll slide into third, with a score less than a point behind No Boundaries.

Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless. Photo by Jenni Autry.

4. Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless: Fernhill Fearless is another face we haven’t seen since WEG, and it will be good to watch him out on an Advanced course again. Kim hasn’t yet announced what he is aimed for this spring, but a good run here will set him up for success later on.

Fernhill Fearless is fairly proficient with this dressage test, averaging a 33.7. While he is a very careful jumper, he does tend to have a rail when jumping over a Marc Donovan course. In 2013, Kim and Fernhill Fearless ran clear at this venue with only 7.2 time penalties across Hugh’s cross country course. If they can match that performance, they will be breathing down Liz’s neck with a score less than half a point behind.