Buck Davidson and Ballynoe Castle RM. Photo by Jenni Autry.
The final Pan Ams selection trial for the U.S. is upon us, and for many, this is their last chance to qualify to represent their country. Both the CCI2* and CCI3* at Jersey Fresh are qualifiers, and we are seeing heavy hitters fill up both divisions. The CCI3* will also be a qualifier for next year’s Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
In addition, the Jersey CCI3* is traditionally a good place to re-route for Rolex contenders who had trouble early on course in Kentucky. We’ve got a few of those on the entry list now, so this division has gotten quite competitive in the past few days.
For the CCI3*, the dressage test will be 2015 FEI 3*-A. The cross country course designer is John Williams and the show jumping course designer is Sally Ike.
TOP FIVE
1. Buck Davidson and Ballynoe Castle RM: After an uncharacteristic early stop at Rolex and subsequent retirement from the course, Buck has re-routed Reggie here, where hopefully better weather and firmer footing will help the experienced gelding regain his typical form.
Reggie hasn’t attempted this dressage test yet, but he and Buck consistently score near 46.1 after the flat, which should put them on or near the lead after the first phase. While Reggie hasn’t run over a John Williams course in the past few years, he’s very consistently clear and near the pace, averaging only two seconds over optimum time. A typical double clear show jumping round should help Buck pull off the win, with a score in the mid-40s.
Lauren Kieffer and Meadowbrook’s Scarlett. Photo by Jenni Autry.
2. Lauren Kieffer and Meadowbrook’s Scarlett: Lauren is only bringing one horse to play in this division, after scratching heavily regarded Czechmate, who will go to Bromont instead. Unfortunately, that means the horse won’t have a result at a selection trial, so Meadowbrook’s Scarlett now becomes Lauren’s chief Pan Ams contender if she achieves a qualification this weekend.
Scarlett is another who hasn’t tried the 3*-A test yet, but an excellent average of 47.1 in dressage will put her in the mix right off the bat. Speedy across the country with an average of only 2.0 time penalties, Lauren will be riding the mare over her first John Williams course.
With only a few events at this level under her belt, Meadowbrook’s Scarlett is showing that she is quite careful, trending towards a double clear jumping round. A final score in the high 40s will snap this pair second place.
3. Michael Pollard and Walterstown Don: Michael has competed his new ride Waltersdown Don somewhat sparingly this season, but that hasn’t prevented them from finishing in the top third of the field at both Carolina CIC3* and The Fork CIC3*. A few more events to gel, and these two will be a real powerhouse.
An average on the flat of 50.5 in their career together thus far will keep Michael out of the top five, but with their partnership still forming, I wouldn’t be surprised for this score to drop this weekend. These two haven’t seen a John Williams course yet, but a quick average of only 6.0 time penalties should help them climb the ranks.
In three rounds of show jumping, they’ve accumulated only one rail, so expect a double clear from this pair in the final phase. Michael and Walterstown Don should clinch third, with a score in the mid-50s.
4. Matt Brown and Super Socks BCF: Matt Brown specifically came to the East Coast for several weeks this spring just to take a crack at this event with his trio of Advanced horses. Super Socks BCF is the most experienced of the three, and fresh off a win at the Fair Hill CIC3*, he’s coming in with guns blazing.
Super Socks BCF has been scoring consistently lower this spring, recently culminating in a 46.7 performing this test three weeks ago. A swift round across the country with only 7.6 time penalties should help this pair maintain a top five placing going into the final day.
This horse does trend towards having a rail and one time penalty in show jumping, which will land them on a score that ties them with Walterstown Don. A slightly slower cross country run will drop them to fourth.
5. Phillip Dutton and I’m Sew Ready: I’m Sew Ready knocked it out of the park on the flat at Carolina International, then followed up by finishing on his dressage score to win the CIC2*. He regressed a bit at The Fork CIC3* but still scored in the top 10, and a good performance here could earn Jackson a spot on the Pan Ams team.
This horse averages a 50.0 in the first phase, and while he hasn’t attempted this test before, he does have the ability to lay down a score in the low 40s. Phillip runs this horse clear across the country, accumulating an average of 4.0 time penalties. I’m Sew Ready does have the propensity to have one rail in the stadium phase. A score in the high 50s will round out the top five for these two.
Michael Pollard and Ballingowan Pizazz. Photo by Jenni Autry.
THE DARK HORSE
Michael Pollard and Ballingowan Pizazz: Ballingowan Pizazz has run into his fair share of tough luck. This horse had a fantastic spring season in 2014 leading up to his first CCI3* attempt at this event last year, and they were leading the field after dressage, but Michael retired the gelding before the end of the course after he ran out of steam.
Mango then sat out the fall and has had a little bit of a tough spring, scoring uncharacteristically high on the flat in a tense atmosphere at Carolina International and getting stung quite badly in the show jumping at The Fork, forcing Michael to withdraw. If Mango can bring it all together again this weekend, it could culminate in a top placing and redemption from last year.
Matt Brown and Happenstance. Photo courtesy of Sherry Stewart.
THE SLEEPER
Matt Brown and Happenstance: Happenstance is the greenest of Matt’s trio, but has the potential to make a huge statement in the first phase. This horse led the field of 110 horses in last fall’s Fair Hill CCI2* after dressage, and it’s probably only a matter of time before he’s throwing down similar scores at the next level.
While he only has three runs at this level, he hasn’t yet placed worse than fourth. For this weekend, I calculated a score that actually tied him with I’m Sew Ready for fifth place, but dropped to sixth with a slightly slower cross country round. This time next year, Happenstance could be the favorite to win at this level.
