By the Numbers: Rebecca Farm CCI3*

James Alliston and Tivoli at Rolex in 2014. Photo by Rare Air Photography. James Alliston and Tivoli at Rolex in 2014. Photo by Rare Air Photography.

The inaugural CCI3* at Rebecca Farm is finally upon us, and with a whole lot of nothing going on in July in terms of Advanced and CIC3* events in North America, a sizable contingent will be showing up to represent each coast. Rebecca Farm now joins Jersey Fresh, Bromont, Fair Hill and Galway Downs as one of the five venues in North America at which horse and rider pairs can obtain their final qualification for the four-star level.

The field for this weekend is largely experienced, with only two horses making their first CCI3* start and one rider who is attempting a first start at the level. Many of the horses here were seen at the Rolex Kentucky Three-Day Event this spring, and we will undoubtedly be seeing successful competitors from this weekend go on to next spring’s Rolex. Thanks to the generosity of the Broussard family and their travel grants, we have pairs making the trek from all corners of the country.

Just as for the CIC3*, the dressage test will be 2015 FEI 3*-B. The cross country course designer is Ian Stark, who also designs courses at Richland Park and Galway Downs and will design at Carolina International starting next spring. The show jumping course designer is Richard Jeffery, who most recently created the courses for Rolex and Great Meadow.

TOP FIVE

1. James Alliston and Tivoli: Despite the influx of central and East Coast riders, the west will be well represented by this British rider, who makes his home in California. Tivoli has been extraordinarily consistent at every event not called Rolex and can bring home the blue if he simply does what he always does.

While he hasn’t yet performed this new B dressage test, Tivoli averages a 49.0 on the flat. This pair has tackled several of Ian’s Galway Downs courses and maintain an average cross country time that is more than four seconds below the optimum. While they haven’t attempted a Richard Jeffery course yet, Tivoli hasn’t had a rail at this level since 2013. If they finish on their dressage score, they should take home the blue with a score in the high-40s.

Buck Davidson and Petite Flower. Photo courtesy of Rare Air Photography.

Buck Davidson and Petite Flower. Photo courtesy of Rare Air Photography.

2. Buck Davidson and Petite Flower: Buck is only bringing two of his 20 Advanced horses (Yes, I exaggerate. Slightly.) out to Montana, but this one has a good shot at the win. Petite Flower has been incredibly consistent this year, a change that is almost certainly due to Buck’s patience and persistence with this mare.

Petite Flower performed this test at Carolina International this spring, scoring significantly higher than her typical average with a 55.7. Her only run over an Ian Stark course came in 2013 at the Galway Downs CCI3*, where she finished double clear for the win. Another incredibly consistent show jumper, this mare has jumped her last nine outings at this level double clear and has never had a penalty over a Richard Jeffery course. Look for Buck to pick up second place with a score in the mid-50s.

3. Kurt Martin and DeLux Z: Kurt is one of the recipients of the Land Rover Competition Grant for this event, which helps offset his costs of making the trek from Virginia. Delux Z will be attempting his first CCI3* after a solid spring season at the Advanced and CIC3* level.

This pair has done the new B test twice, averaging a 53.4. This will be the first time this horse sees an Ian Stark course, but overall Kurt tends to bring this horse home clear with only 9.2 time penalties. The trend of careful jumpers continues, with DeLux Z recently jumping double clear over the Richard Jeffery course at Great Meadow. This pair should finish third on a score in the low 60s.

Sydney Conley Elliot and Cisko A. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sydney Conley Elliot and Cisko A. Photo by Jenni Autry.

4. Sydney Conley-Elliott and Cisko A: Sydney and Cisko A recently made a splash by finishing sixth at Great Meadow in only their third attempt at the level. After a year-long hiatus, this horse is flexing his muscles and will look to duplicate those results here at the duo’s first CCI3* attempt.

Sydney and Cisko A average 54.6 on the flat, but have been trending downward into the high 40s lately. This will be their first Ian Stark course, but they are generally quick across the country, averaging only 4.4 time penalties overall. Cisko A isn’t quite as careful as others in the field and recently had one down over Richard’s Great Meadow course. Look for this promising pair to finish fourth, less than half a point behind Kurt.

5. James Alliston and Parker: James should have a good weekend on familiar turf, and his veteran Parker will help him bookend the top five. Never a dressage queen, Parker nonetheless is a cross country machine and is the only horse in the field to average double clear cross country rounds overall.

Parker should be well down after the first phase, averaging a 64.6 on the flat. Although Parker does average double clear cross country rounds, he does tend to rack up 2.0 time penalties on Ian Stark’s courses, but should still move up the ranks quite a bit on that. The only time this horse has seen Richard Jeffery courses is at Rolex, where he averages two rails. James and Parker should polish off the top five with a score in the low 70s.

Buck Davidson and The Apprentice. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Buck Davidson and The Apprentice. Photo by Jenni Autry.

THE DARK HORSE

Buck Davidson and The Apprentice: Buck has his reasons for bringing two horses out here, and they aren’t just to give them both a good run. The Apprentice is here to aim for the win just as much as Petite Flower. This horse is good on the flat, but struggles to make the time in the other two phases. A rough showing over Richard Jeffery’s Rolex course drops this pair out of the numbers, but if Dirk puts in a more typical show jumping performance, he’ll crack the top five even with time penalties across the country.

John Michael Durr and Esprit de la Danse at Galway Downs 2014. Photo by Jenni Autry.

John Michael Durr and Esprit de la Danse at Galway Downs 2014. Photo by Jenni Autry.

THE SLEEPER

John Michael Durr and Esprit de la Danse: John Michael and his mare had a very consistent cross country record up until Rolex, and returning to the West Coast should mean a return to their previous form. Their 2015 dressage average is thus far six points below their average from 2014, and they jumped their first double clear for the level at the Galway Downs CIC3* in April. If these two continue their steady improvement, a top five placing might be in the cards.