Dr. Kent Allen wrote an interesting article for the Chronicle about what he calls the “N=1 Syndrome,” where, N is the sample size (number of patients) of an experiment, or the number of observed experiences. One of Dr. Allen’s points is that people are prone to trust their few previous experiences with a given lameness (N=1 or 2) to their vet’s many experiences with the condition (N=200 or 300):
“You want to believe your experiences, or those of your close associates.
A famous historian pointed out that we’re simply the sum of our previous experiences, so if it hasn’t happened to us it doesn’t exist in our worldview…
The other complicating factor is that horse sports are filled with rugged individualists who consider riding and caring for horses an art form. Some are loath to apply science to the individual truths that they can only find on the back of a horse.”
When I read this, I immediately thought that similar principles apply to our own riding. As Dr. Allen points out, riding certainly is an art form and the idea that we are more likely to trust our own experiences than those of others seems natural, but Dr. Allen’s message that we should seek to use experience whenever possible resonates with me.
As we all know, having more experiences is a valuable asset. Phillip is probably something like N=40,000 for number of advanced XC jumps he has jumped in competition over his career. Also, finding good coaching is so important because our coaches have many more experiences than us.
Two extensions of the N principle are that more recent experiences have a larger impact than past experiences, and the fewer experiences one has, the larger the impact of any one particular experience. This is also why having a good foundational education and good first experiences on horseback are so important for young riders.
As an interesting aside, Dr. Allen mentions in the article that his office tracks pass/fail rates for pre-purchase exams, and that about 50% of such exams have a positive result.
Read Dr. Allen’s article here, and share your thoughts with Eventing Nation.
