Wow, you guys really engaged on Team USA, mostly positive, although I did cop a hiding for considering Tiana. I still sand by my comments, I think Blenheim was a turning point for her and I expect bigger and better things.
I have been saying for a while now that the Kiwi Eventers will be the ones to beat in London and they have way too much depth in horsepower compared to other nations. For instance, Andrew Nicholson has three horses on the New Zealand 2012 list (every country does it a little different and NZ has a squad for London, then Normandy). All three of Andrew’s horses could make the team and be formidable, even with Andrew in the saddle on all three they would be a chance of gold (I know only one horse per rider but run with this for a moment).
Let’s start with Nicholson’s first ride Nereo, its recent record is: 2nd Burghley, 15th Aachen, 12th Badminton, 3rd WEG, 4th Hartpury and 11th Badminton, you would pick it for the team, no questions.
Then we move to Avebury: 8th Burghley, 12th Barbury, 10th Badminton, 22nd Burghley, 2nd Hartpury, 21st Barbury and 27th Badminton. Not as good as Nereo and prone to a few more faults, but better than almost every horse on the US and Canadian teams.
Then we come to Nicholson’s third string ride Mr Cruise Control: 2nd Pau, 1st Hartpury, 14th Luhmuhlen, 30th Chatsworth, 9th Pau, 15th Blenheim, 1st Hartpury, 4th Luhmuhlen and 5th Blenheim, not exactly what you would expect from a third string horse. In fact on some teams this would easily be a number one horse. I think the only way you could get Nicholson not to pull off a top 10 spot is to put him on a Jersey Cow, even then you might need to watch out.
So the question for picking Andrew Nicholson is simply which of his rides is in the best condition just before the Games, Nereo would be my first choice but I really don’t think it matters.
Nicholson did have a fourth four star horse on the list until very recently, it was Armada, another contender very experienced at four star level this horse was another for Andrew to put his hat in the ring with.
Armada has a very impressive four star record. The interesting thing is that Oliver Townend has taken over the ride. Given the timing one would assume for the Olympics, but it is critical that nationality needs to have been set in stone by 31 Dec 2011, so Oli can’t be considered for the British team on this mount.
Next on the NZ 2012 list is Clarke Johnstone and Orient Express, the worst result for this pair in the last 10 starts is 39th at WEG, all others are top 10 finishes including two wins back to back in Kihikihi and Sydney World Cups last year. These two are a great pair, Clarke is only young and simply if Orient Express maintains fitness, they should be in London.
Next on the Kiwi list is Jonathan (Jock) Paget who has two horses on the list Clifton Lush which is a ride he picked up from fellow Kiwi Joe Meyer last year, Lush is a 13 yo NZ Thoroughbred. This pair are still bedding down their partnership with 2 incomplete XC last year, but then finishing on a high with a fifth at Burghley, arguably the toughest XC course in the world. This pair are a possibility. Jock’s other ride is his longterm mount Clifton Promise, this pair are more consistent and have a lot of miles under them as a combination. One of the stats that jumped out at me was they had 11 straight top 4 results. While things have not always been perfect for this pair with 3 incomplete events on their record, they pulled off a 7th at WEG, 16th at last year’s Aachen and then 12th at Burghley so they are certainly back on track. Personally I would take Promise over Lush. These guys will be on the Kiwi team.
Mark (Toddy) Todd has three horses on the list and the NZ High Performance team lists two of those as injured, his top two horses Badminton winner NZB Land Vision and NZB Grass Valley. His third horse on the list is Major Milestone, so lets start there.
Major Milestone is a 13 year old Irish horse that Toddy picked up the ride on in 2010, their dressage hasn’t been great, by Toddy’s standards at least with 50s and 60s, but from five FEI starts they have achieved two top-20 four star finishes, a top 20 CIC3* finish and two top 40 including Badminton. These guys are a combination to watch and if they can drop below 50 in the dressage, they could be very serious.
Toddy’s NZB Land Vision has been off the radar since winning last year’s Badminton. While the Kiwi HP list notes the horse as injured, I can find no mention in the press of the injury, and I have asked around–no one is prepared to say. So unless we see an in form Land Vision pop up at Badminton or Saumur this spring we have to assume Toddy won’t be riding him at the Games. ** Edit: we received word from UptownEventing via Twitter that “Land Vision has been injured but is fully fit & if you check Toddy’s twitter & facebook you will see that he has been to team training.” Thank you for the update, Uptown! **
After winning Badminton last year, Toddy hopped on a plane to Kentucky and tried to do a back to back on NZB Grass Valley, they failed to finish. I heard (from behind the tack shed) that Grass Valley may have done a tendon, again information is slim and I don’t really know. Same deal applies as Land Vision, hopefully it will pop back up this spring and be in contention for the Games. Of the three horses if fitness was right I would take Land Vision, as for the other two it is a toss up but in the end it may be that Major Milestone is the only one of the three fit enough. Personally, I would take Toddy on a donkey if that meant I had him on a team, Major Milestone, is a good horse and with experience and Toddy in the saddle it may become a GREAT horse.
That leaves one spot, under normal circumstances you wouldn’t consider taking a 20-year-old horse to the Olympic Games, Caroline Powell’s Lenamore in no normal mount. Lenamore has recently achieved a milestone, he is the most successful horse in British Eventing history having recently surpassed Spring Along to have the most BE points ever.
Lenamore is one of those special horses; this 15.2h 20-year-old Irish Sport Horse is still achieving, at Burghley last year I remember him approaching and being surprised at how light on his feet he was, he was almost silent. Last year Lenamore completed both Burghley 4th, Badminton 6th, and had won the 2010 Burghley, so yes I would pick a 20-year-old horse for London, his name is Lenamore.
So that is five but who else to the Kiwis have on the radar? There are some talented jockeys, that are worth considering. First up is 21 year old Jonelle Richards, Jonelle did her first four star last year and finished 27th, while she may not be a real London contender, I’d have her on the watch list for Normandy. Blyth Tait has made a come back recently and his mount Santos is yet to prove worthy of the Kiwi team. In their three FEI outings to date they retired at Burghley and picked up a bunch of jumping penalties at the two events previously. Blyth has the talent it really is a question of whether he can get the best from Santos in the future.
Finally, I think Neil Spratt warrants some attention, he has been working away in the shadow of some of these horses above, his mount Upleaden has shown some real promise with a 20th at Burghley and 22nd at Luhmuhlen, although he did also pick up 20 jumping penalties. Neil is my Kiwi reserve.
So there you have it, a team that will almost certainly be on the podium in London and with a good chance of taking gold.
Andrew Nicholson – Nereo
Clarke Johnstone – Orient Express
Jock Paget – Clifton Promise
Mark Todd – Major Milestone / **Land Vision
Caroline Powell – Lenamore
With Reserve
Neil Spratt – Upleaden
OK team EN let me have it, tell me who I missed, why I picked the wrong horses and whatever else tickles your fancy.
Yours in Eventing,
ESJ
Previous predictions:
Team Canada
Team USA
