Can Michael Jung win a fourth year in a row with fischerRocana FST? Photo by Julia Rau.
Jog day at the Land Rover Kentucky Three-Day Event is upon us! With the first horse inspection at 3 p.m. this afternoon and dressage kicking off tomorrow, the EN team is ready to make our picks for horses and riders we think will stand out in six categories: Big Winner, Top American, Top Canadian, Spoiler Alert, Top Thoroughbred and Best Mare.
We also have two special guests this year making picks in commentator extraordinaire John Kyle and stats guru Diarm Byrne.
Note: There is only one rookie this year in Sara Gumbiner and Polaris. These predictions also exclude Veronica and OBOS O’Reilly, who are both going to Badminton instead.
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SHELBY ALLEN
Top American: Phillip Dutton
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac. They’re in great form and have the cross country record to back it up. He’ll want a good result with the World Equestrian Games on the horizon.
Spoiler Alert: Cooley Cross Border and Kim Severson. If all the stairs align, they could take it all, but their track record makes it hard for me to definitely give them the win — no matter how much I love them!
Top Thoroughbred: Lynn Symansky and Donner. This is Donner’s 9th four-star, so this pair has the backing of experience. I think this could be the weekend all the pieces come together for a top 5 finish.
Best Mare: fisherRocana FST. I think losing the dressage coefficient will bump her off her throne in the final phase. Still a top performer — I think she will be the best mare.
JENNI AUTRY
Big Winner: Chris Burton and Nobilis 18. This pair set a UK dressage record at Burghley in 2016, so expect them to be leading or very close to it after the first phase. Burto is one of the fastest cross country riders in the world, and I think his four rails down at Burghley (when he still won) were an outlier. Looking to his international record, the horse has had two rails on two other occasions — all the rest are clears. Jumping on a surface on the final day should make all the difference.
Top American: Phillip Dutton with Z. He has an ideal draw early on Thursday morning when the main stadium will be quiet, and he can finish on his dressage score. With the dressage coefficient removed, we are looking to horses who can finish on their dressage score as the ones to watch. This horse can do it in his four-star debut.
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac. Look for speedy Waylon to make the time on cross country or come close to it with this horse. Rails on the final day remain a question, but I’m looking for a big performance from them this year.
Spoiler Alert: Pawel Spisak and Banderas. If you haven’t heard of this Polish pair, take note. On paper they can deliver strong performance in all three phases and challenge the very top of the leaderboard. Did I mention Pawel trains with Michael Jung? I’m looking at a potential top five finish.
Top Thoroughbred: Erin Sylvester and Paddy the Caddy. There are so many strong dark horse combinations in this year’s field. Paddy the Caddy makes his CCI4* debut as a horse who can finish on his dressage score. Erin won the Land Rover Ride of the Day for hitting bang on the optimum time last year. Look for her to challenge the time again with this horse. I’m calling a top 10 finish.
Best Mare: fischerRocana FST with Michael Jung. The removal of the dressage coefficient is interesting when you look at horses like Rocana. Without it, she would have won the 2014 World Equestrian Games but lost at Kentucky last year. If she wins, she will make history as the first horse to win four times at a single CCI4* venue.
DIARM BYRNE
Big Winner: fischerRocana FST
Top American: Phillip Dutton and Z
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac
Spoiler Alert: Lauren Kieffer and Vermiculus
Top Thoroughbred: Donner with Lynn Symansky
Best Mare: fischerRocana FST
SAMANTHA CLARK
Big Winner: fischerRocana FST
Top American: Phillip Dutton and Z
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac
Spoiler Alert: Chris Burton and Nobilis 18
Top Thoroughbred: Donner with Lynn Symansky
Best Mare: fischerRocana FST
MAGGIE DEATRICK
Big Winner: fischerRocana FST, but by the skin of her teeth this year. Between the loss of the coefficient for dressage negating her strength in that phase and good weather deteriorating the advantage she gets from getting close to time when few others can, she’ll have a much narrower margin on Sunday to get the win this time.
Top American: The numbers are telling me Z will top the Americans, which could be a bit of a stretch in the horse’s first four-star….but then again, it’s Phillip Dutton in the irons. His dressage score has been dropping pending his ability to hold it together, and he’s proven the ability to finish on his dressage score at the CCI3* level. Can he do it for his first time at the CCI4* level?
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac will use speed to their advantage to fly up the ranks on phase two, but will be limited by what the horse can pull out on phase three. Still, speed combined with their ability to be strong enough on the flat to stay within shouting distance of the dressage leaders will keep them as the top Canadians.
Spoiler Alert: Cooley Cross Border of course. Our most recent American Blenheim winner has all the pieces if everything goes well. Fitness will be a big question as well as grit to get the job done. If he and Kim Severson can get through the cross-country phase (and if they can, they will be fast too), then this show is likely theirs for the taking.
Top Thoroughbred: Paddy the Caddy will be the spoiler for this category for me over Tight Lines and Donner. His record is just so consistent in the two jumping phases, proving he can stay on his dressage score multiple times. And that dressage score is super consistently within reach of the leaders as well. In a year where dressage is weighed less in relation to jumping phases, staying on what you get is all-important.
Best Mare: fischerRocana FST obviously, but excluding her RF Scandalous has a good shot of making the top ten. Like Cooley Cross Border, fitness will be a huge question for her, and while she’ll show jump clear on day three, she has yet to get closer than 12 seconds over optimum at a CCI3* or CCI4*.
JOHN KYLE
Big Winner: Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST
Top American: Will Coleman and Tight Lines
Top Canadian: Hawley Bennett-Award and Jollybo
Spoiler Alert: Pawel Spisak and Banderas
Top Thoroughbred: Donner with Lynn Symansky
Best Mare: fischerRocana FST
ABBY POWELL
Big Winner: I️ can’t choose, I️ can’t choose! I️ certainly don’t want to root against Michael and Rocana because they’re amazing, but I️ think this could be someone else’s year. I think 2016 Burghley winners Chris Burton and Nobilis 18 could steal their crown.
Top American: It could be a bit of a stretch given this is the horse’s first four-star, but Phillip Dutton and Z have a very impressive track record for clear rounds and top finishes.
Top Canadian: Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac are a great pairing and they’ve been on their game lately.
Spoiler Alert: Marilyn Little and RF Scandalous are total wildcards for me. If Marilyn and Kitty successfully complete cross country, chances are they’ll be up there on the leaderboard.
Top Thoroughbred: I’m rooting for the “underdogs.” Simply Priceless with Elisa Wallace has improved with each showing at Kentucky. If she can keep the Black Dragon contained on the flat, I think they are a force to be reckoned with.
Best Mare: Queen of Kentucky, fischerRocanaFST.
KATE SAMUELS
Big Winner: I’m voting Kim Severson & Cooley Cross Border because I’ll be completely overwhelmed with giddy happiness if it happens for them this weekend, and they have all the right pieces to make it happen.
Top American: Duh, Kim & Crossy.
Top Canadian: Hawley Bennett-Awad and Jollybo, tiny mare power!
Spoiler Alert: Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class … it’s hard to bet against Oliver honestly
Top Thoroughbred: Paddy the Caddy, because he’s adorable and Erin is fast across the ground on Saturdays.
Best Mare: RF Scandalous, sorry FischerRocana, but you’ve had your time in the spotlight.
LESLIE THRELKELD
Big Winner: Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST. Why bet against a trend?
Top American: Kim Severson and Cooley Cross Border. Following a banner 2017 and a second place finish at The Fork CIC3* this month, they look primed to take a top placing. Plus I want it for them SO BAD.
Top Canadian: Hawley Bennett-Awad and Jollybo. Fierce and fearless.
Spoiler Alert: Marilyn Little and RF Scandalous. Fourth at their four-star debut and ten FEI wins on their record. If Kitty can go quick enough on cross country they will be hunting down the top of the leaderboard.
Top Thoroughbred: Lynn Symansky and Donner. Where they fall short on the flat they make up for over fences. But like a fine wine this partnership just keeps getting better with time.
Best Mare: Queen Rocana
LESLIE WYLIE
As caboose of this train and a contrarian by nature, this year I’m refraining from picks and simply wishing every last horse and rider a safe, happy 2018 Land Rover Kentucky Three-Day Event. Let’s do this thing. Go Eventing!
