Jung and fischerRocana Lead Day 1 at Kentucky … But Can They Hold On?

Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST lead the Land Rover Kentucky Three-Day Event at the conclusion of the first day of dressage in their quest to claim a historic fourth win here in Lexington, Kentucky. (If you missed it, watch a video of their test here.)

But their score of 27.1 (which converts to 40.7 under former FEI scoring) leaves the door open for the heavy-hitters still to come tomorrow. As we discussed in the lunch update, fisherRocana, a 13-year-old German Sport Horse (Ituango xx X Rose II, by Carismo) owned by Brigitte and Joachim Jung, has scored better in the first phase in all three of her previous trips to Kentucky.

As always, Michael said the mare gave him a “very good feeling” in the sandbox today. “I think I can ride her really nice and like I wish. I had a little mistake at the halt at A before the reinback — she stood not really quiet — just a few things like this. All in all I’m happy.”

Tsetserleg checks out the atmosphere at his first CCI4*. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

The entire top five at the lunch break remained unchanged through the afternoon session. Boyd Martin and Christine Turner’s Tsetserleg delivered an impressive performance in the 11-year-old Trakehner’s debut at the level to sit in second place on 31.2.

“When you finish (the test) you always wish there was one part or another that was a bit better,” Boyd said. “Overall he did as good as he could with where we are at the moment (with his training). It will get better and better, but at this point I’m very pleased.”

Bred in the U.S. by Timothy Holekamp, Tsetserleg is a son of Olympic team bronze medalist Windfall. “Ten years ago when I came to America for the first time, I saw Darren Chiacchia and Windfall. I remember watching his test here and it was spectacular,” Boyd said. “Who would have thought that 10 years later I would be riding one of Windfall’s babies?”

Tamie Smith and Wembley. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Tamie Smith sits third with Kevin and Ann Baumgardner’s Wembley, a 15-year-old KWPN (Lester X E-vip, by Cantus), on 32.1 in the horse’s first CCI4*. She said she perhaps spent a bit too much time in warm-up, which saw him get a bit tired towards the end of the test, but overall she is thrilled.

“I wasn’t really sure what to expect about Wembley because he can go into the test and be quite tense,” Tamie said. “He was very workmanlike. I couldn’t have asked him to be better.

Caroline Martin and Sherrie Martin’s Spring Easy, a 12-year-old Irish Sport Horse (Garrison Royal X Castlegrogan Clare, by Ballinvella), sit in fourth place on 33.3.

Phillip Dutton and Z, a 10-year-old Zangersheide (Asca X Bellabouche, by Babouche VH Gehucht Z) owned by the Z Partnership, sit fifth on 33.7 in the horse’s CCI4* debut.

Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac lead the way for Canada and also delivered the best test of the afternoon session, scoring 34.2 to sit in sixth place. The 15-year-old Thoroughbred owned by Anthony Connolly and Skye Levely is another horse in the field making his CCI4* debut here at Kentucky.

Waylon Roberts and Kelecyn Cognac. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

How the Scoring Stacked Up

As we look ahead to the second day of dressage, the question isn’t whether fischerRocana will still be leading at the end of the day tomorrow — she won’t. At least four horses (Cooley Cross Border, Cooley Master Class, Nobilis 18, and RF Scandalous) are expected to score better than 27.1 tomorrow, with MHS King Joules also having achieved a CCI4* personal best better than that mark.

That stat is courtesy of EN’s data analyst and all-around wizard Maggie Deatrick, who has been crunching numbers and tweeting about how the ground jury of Christian Landolt, Jane Hamlin and Sue Baxter performed today.

Overall, the afternoon sessions scored +1.68 above the expected averages for these pairs, in line with the +1.61 of the morning sessions. Thursday was scored +1.65 above expected averages, which indicates the judges are not inclined to be generous for tension or mistakes.

Jane Hamlin offered the highest marks this afternoon on six of 10 pairs, including all four in the final session. Christian Landolt gave the lowest marks on four of the 10 while the other two judges were lowest on three each.

The judges scored within 1% of each other on 9.52% (two) of the pairs who went today. They differed by 5% or more on 14.29% (three) pairs. In the final session, Jollybo received the largest disagreement of 6.04%, with Jane Hamlin offering 62.007% and Sue Baxter offering 56.03%.

Be sure to follow EN on Twitter to read more of Maggie’s stats.

Your top three after the first day of dressage: Boyd Martin, Michael Jung, Tamie Smith. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Looking Ahead

We will likely be looking at a very different top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of dressage tomorrow. Diarm Byrne of EquiRatings has made the gutsy call that aside from Jung and fischerRocana, none of the combinations in the top 10 after day one will still be in the top 10 at the conclusion of day two.

While Sam Watson, the other half of EquiRatings, wisely noted today that “four-stars aren’t won in the dressage, but they are lost there,” Kentucky is almost certainly not going to be a dressage show.

Derek di Grazia’s cross country course, which runs in reverse direction this year, is beefy and technical right up to the very end. (Click here for EN’s fence-by-fence preview.)

The top three all weighed in with their thoughts on the course in this afternoon’s press conference, and Michael Jung agreed that reversing the direction of the track has significantly changed the feel and flow of the course.

“The ground is perfect, also great weather, so I’m really looking forward to the cross country,” he said. “Really nice jumps, really nice build. You have a tough course — many different places with difficult jumps. Nice alternative jumps everywhere so you can choose your options; you can change your idea if you feel that the horse is tired … I really like it at the moment, but we have to walk it a few more times.”

Boyd said he thought the course is as tough as he’s ever seen it here. “I think that the first part of the course is quite forward and galloping, and I think the second half of the course, starting at the Head of the Lake, gets much more difficult. As we know the horses tire toward the second half of the course a bit. I think it’s actually going to be hard to make up time,” he said.

“Usually (Derek) gives you a nice long gallop somewhere in the last minute or two, and this year he’s kept the combinations. As Michael said, there’s not one fence out there that’s breathtaking. I think there will be trouble throughout the course.”

Tamie added that the course is technical the whole way. “The Head of the Lake will be quite influential going the direct route, and like Boyd said, we have a brush combination toward the end of the course that might catch out some tired horses. Hopefully mine’s not tired!”

The second day of dressage starts tomorrow at 9:30 a.m. EST and will stream live on USEF Network. Click here to view Leslie Threlkeld’s beautiful photo gallery of all the horse and rider combinations today. Click here to catch up on all of EN’s coverage from #LRK3DE so far. Stay tuned for much more from the #BestWeekendAllYear. Go Eventing.

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