Photo update: The selectors hard at work, via Sara Ike’s Facebook
Dreams are going to be made and dreams are going to be crushed today in England. 12 US horses and 9 riders were sent to the US selection trials at Barbury and every single one of them performed admirably this weekend. It would have made the selectors’ job easier if one or two of the less experience riders had crumbled under pressure and pulled 4 rails or picked up a stop. But everyone stepped up big under huge pressure and the US selectors are left with the blessing and the curse of having 12 great options.
The vet evaluations have already concluded and the selectors are meeting to make their picks as I write this. The process will follow pretty much the same route as the US short list selections on the Monday after Bromont. As a quick recap, the veterinary info has been compiled and presented to the selectors, who will meet to make their short list nominations. The Selectors are a critical part of the process, but their job is just to make nominations (recommendations)–they do not have power to formally appoint the team. From there the selections will move on to the Eventing High Performance Committee and then on to the USEF Executive Committee for final approval later today. We should probably see the squad and alternates around 3pm ET.
Here’s a breakdown of my thoughts/predictions about the team selection, filed squarely under the “ridiculous commentary” category on EN. Unlike the WEG 2010 and the Pan Am 2011 selections, neither I nor any insiders I have spoken with have a strong feeling about who the selectors will recommend other than Phillip and Boyd. This is as wide open of a selection process as you will ever see and everyone sitting in England right now should rightfully feel like they have a chance.
In contrast to the overall US selection picture, Phillip Dutton and Mystery Whisper are basically a sure thing. Unless something crazy happened in this morning’s vet checks, this pair is going to the Olympics. They dominated the spring circuit in the US and Mystery Whisper is Phillip’s best horse right now. If Mystery Whisper can’t go, then I believe Phillip will get to ride Mighty Nice, and if Mighty Nice can’t go, then we’ll find a British pasture pony and send Phillip to carry the team in London aboard said pasture pony.
Boyd Martin is also a sure thing, but the question of which horse he should ride is definitely in question. I am Neville’s biggest fan in the world, but I believe the selectors have been starting to lean towards Otis since after Bromont. Otis is widely regarded as a better show jumper. Show jumping is all important in the Olympic format, which features one team and one individual show jumping round. Remington made a great case for himself this weekend after getting added to the short list at the last minute. All three horses deserve to represent their country and I don’t think any one would be a bad pick, I just don’t know which would be the best pick. Either way, Neville will probably re-route to Gatcombe after Boyd’s fall from him on the Barbury XC. The Canadians will have their final outing in a couple weeks at Gatcombe.
The selection choices get much more difficult after Boyd and Phillip. I have been saying all year that Sinead and Manoir De Carneville are in great shape for Olympic selection if they didn’t make any major mistakes. Sinead and “Tate” did just that, so I’ll stick to my guns and pick them to make the team. They can hang their hat on two great four-star performances in 2011. Although I wish they had scored better in the dressage at Barbury, no other remaining short listed pair can boast a better 4* record, in my opinion.
If Phillip, Boyd, and Sinead make it, that means that six pairs are competing for two spots and I think four of those pairs have a terrific shot at making it. Karen O’Connor and Mr. Medicott each have a ton of experience at international competitions. Although their partnership started just 6 months ago they have gotten better and better this spring. I think they are a top 3 US pair right now and maybe the very best US pair to tackle a big open four-star like Rolex or Burghley. My concern with Mr. Medicott is that his size and aggression on the cross-country is going to make it hard for him to make the time around the twisty and hilly Greenwich Olympic course. That being said, I’d want Karen and Mr. Medicott on my squad, so I pick them as the 4th in.
I’ll be honest, I have no idea what to do with the 5th pick. Will Coleman and Twizzel are terrific and I think Will absolutely deserves to get his pinque coat this year. I also believe Twiz would come up big at the Olympics. Andromaque smoked around the Barbury course and, of all the US short listed horses, I believe she is best suited to handle the Greenwich cross-country’s turns and terrain. But, we know that Missy was the second last added to the short list. I think that was completely ridiculous, but it does give insight that she might not be a favorite of the selectors. Tiana and Ringwood Magister are less experienced but they have huge upside. They were the highest placed US pair at the Barbury selection trials, proving that their spot on the short list is well deserved. Remember that only the top 3 team scores count in the Olympic format. I want high reward and I’ll accept high risk with my 5th team pick, so Tiana and “Finn” are my 5th pick, but just by the tiniest of margins ahead of both Wills. That being said, I have no idea what the selectors will do.
Clark Montgomery with Loughan Glen and Allison with Arthur both absolutely deserve to make the team and I think there is a chance one of them, especially Allison, might make the team. It’s hard to argue against a 2nd at Rolex this year for Arthur, and Arthur is the quintessential high risk, high reward horse. I’m just scared about Arthur’s spookiness competing in what will surely be the spookiest environment he has ever seen.
We’ll know soon enough who will get to compete for the USA at the Olympics. I couldn’t be prouder of how all of our short listers stepped up this weekend to represent the red, white, and blue at Barbury and I can’t wait to see who makes the team. We’ll bring you the lucky 5 as soon as we know it. Go eventing.
