It’s the final day of Kentucky, our servers are fried (not this year!), our chinchillas are hysterical giving birth (seriously!), and yet coverage soldiers on.
After yesterday’s cross country, the stage is set for a repeat win. Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class find themselves sitting in an enviable position, with a rail’s advantage over every horse but one. There’s a good chance he will canter into the stadium with a rail in hand, period.
Chasing him are a few horses who are almost incapable of jumping anything but a clear, as well as several others who have a good shot of adding nothing. It will all come down to who can handle the pressure in this moment.
A reminder that the scoring for time penalties has changed. Instead of one penalty point per second over optimum, it is now 0.4 penalties per second.
THE FATE OF THE FIVE
Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Oliver Townend (GBR) and Cooley Master Class
Pros: It’s hard to make an argument against a clean round for this horse and it’s even more difficult to argue they’ll have more than one rail. In their last 13 rounds at Advanced/4/5*, these two have jumped clear rounds in 11 of them. They’ve jumped four clear consecutive rounds at this level. They haven’t had a rail in 2017, and then prior to that they last had a rail in 2014. They haven’t had more than a rail since early in 2014.
Cons: In two long format events at 4/5*, he did have a rail at one — the CCI4*-L at Boekelo back in 2014. That and Kentucky are his only two runs where show jumping was last. And once upon a time, back in 2013, he had multiple rails (8, 16 and 16) at three consecutive events. Those days appear to be long gone, however.
Prediction: No rails. (But even one rail will hold the win if Tsetserleg has one down).
Boyd Martin and Tsetserleg. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Boyd Martin (USA) and Tsetserleg
Pros: Tsetserleg is certainly capable of a clear round, jumping clear in seven of his 15 rounds at Advanced/4/5* and clear in three of seven rounds when show jumping was last. He and Boyd also put in a clean round to finish third at the Fair Hill CCI4*-L in 2017, so he has proven the ability to put in a clean round at the long format.
Cons: Boyd and Tsetserleg have yet to jump clear over a 5* stadium course; last year at Kentucky they had one rail and then suffered an uncharacteristic three down at WEG. In the horse’s career at Advanced/4/5*, they have been a one or none horse in all but two rounds, but in the 4/5*-L format, they’ve had one or more down in three of four attempts.
Prediction: One rail
Tim Price and Xavier Faer. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
Tim Price (NZL) and Xavier Faer
Pros: Xavier Faer has jumped clear in 50% of the stadium rounds at Advanced/4/5* he has done with Tim Price in the irons, and he notably has done it when it matters, jumping clear at Badminton in 2017 to clinch a spot on the podium in third. In three of the five 4/5*-L rounds they have jumped together, three have been clear, while the other two each have only one rail.
Cons: Despite his strong long format record in show jumping, he has only jumped clear once in his last five runs, most recently at Burnham Market CCI4*-S.
Prediction: One rail
Phillip Dutton and Z. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Phillip Dutton (USA) and Z
Pros: This horse is a supremely good show jumper and I fully expect them to put the pressure on those above. This horse last had a rail in his first start of 2017 and last had a time penalty in mid-2017. In nine rounds where show jumping was last, they only had a rail back in 2016, which also happened to be the horse’s first attempt at Advanced level. Z has also jumped clear in four of four 4/5*-L rounds.
Cons: The only con is that his record isn’t 100% perfect.
Prediction: No rails.
Piggy French and Quarrycrest Echo. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
Piggy French (GBR) and Quarrycrest Echo
Pros: This horse has literally never had more than one rail in his entire Advanced/4/5* career and that includes several rides under Tina Cook while Piggy was out for maternity leave. Piggy and Quarrycrest Echo have jumped clear in nine of 15 rounds at these levels.
Cons: Quarrycrest Echo has had one rail at 50% of his 4/5*-L attempts. The rails both came in team situations; one at Strzegom for the 2017 European Championships and the other at WEG last fall.
Prediction: Clear
THE CLIMBERS
Felix Vogg and Colero. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Felix Vogg (SUI) and Colero
Pros: Colero hasn’t had a super long career at this level, but in nine rounds at 4/5* he’s been clear in six of them. He has also never had more than a rail at these levels.
Cons: Colero did have a rail in the horse’s only 5* round, at WEG last fall. They also have the possibility of time penalties, having had them in four of their nine rounds. They had time penalties in both of Colero’s 4/5*-L finishes.
Prediction: Clear round, with a time penalty or two.
Doug Payne and Vandiver. Photo by Jenni Autry.
Doug Payne (USA) and Vandiver
Pros: Doug has totally turned around the show jumping form of this horse. In 23 rounds at Advanced/4/5*, they have only once had more than one rail. They’ve jumped clear rounds 65.2% of the time, and are clear in four of their seven runs when show jumping was last.
Cons: Their form has faltered a bit lately, as they’ve only been clear in one of five rounds in 2018 and 2019 and had a rail in each of the others. In three 4/5*-L finishes, they’ve been clear in only their first CCI4*-L, had a rail in their only CCI5*-L round, and their only career finish with more than one rail came at Blenheim CCI4*-L in 2017.
Prediction: One rail.
Ariel Grald and Leamore Master Plan. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.
Ariel Grald (USA) and Leamore Master Plan
Pros: In 13 career stadium rounds at Advanced/4/5*, this pair has jumped clean in 10 of them, and only once had more than one rail down. They jumped clear in both of their CCI4*-L rounds and clear in four of six rounds when show jumping was last.
Cons: This is their first attempt at CCI5*-L, and two of the three times they did have rails did occur when show jumping was last.
Prediction: Clear round.
OTHERS OF NOTE
Paddy the Caddy will almost certainly jump a clear round and could be the first to do so in the order. Wizzerd, Pfun and Voltaire de Tre all stand a strong chance of jumping clear as well.
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