(1) Make no mistake, the 2010 USA eventing team is looking for redemption after finishing outside of the top 6 at the 2008 Olympics. Three of the US riders in Beijing have been named on the 2010 squad and two of the horses have as well (Mandiba and Comet). The biggest difference that I notice between the 2008 and 2010 teams is that we have upgraded our cross-country strength with the addition of Neville, Ballynoecastle, and Tipperary Liadhnan.
(2) Cross-country could be considered the strongest phase for all four of the US team horses and riders. With a team that consists of Woodburn, Neville, Ballynoecastle, and Tipperary Liadhnan, the US has to feel really optimistic about finishing on all four scores without a stop on XC. From having stared at the horse records for hours earlier this week, I think those pairs have a collective three stops in their entire careers together. With that in mind, a very difficult World Equestrian Games XC would be a perfect scenario for the US team, especially if the time is tough to make.
(3) The list of alternates (TruLuck, Leyland, Remington, Arthur) shows a lot of intelligence by the selectors. TruLuck and Remington are alternates for obvious reasons–no matter what, we need Phillip and Boyd riding in Kentucky. Amy is an excellent choice for an alternate because she is so strong mentally and the US has always been able to count on her coming through in the clutch. On face value, Arthur’s selection as an alternate is a lot more questionable. Arthur hasn’t put together a strong performance in any of his last four three-days and it’s hard for me to think that he deserved the spot more than the always consistent Brandenburg’s Joshua or the jumping machine Last Monarch. But, the Arthur pick makes more sense when we look at how the alternates will be used if (heaven forbid) something happens to anyone on the squad.
Obviously, if Woodburn or Neville don’t go to the WEGs, they would just be replaced by TruLuck or Remington. If Ballynoecastle or Tipperary encounter problems, then the best way to keep a team full of very strong cross-country horses is to add Leyland to the team. But, if Mandiba or Comet have problems then the one remaining short lister in the ‘win or bust‘ category is Arthur and I think he is a good replacement for the individuals. As we have been saying from the beginning, individual selections are very different than team selections and I give the selectors a lot of credit for picking a very smart list of alternates.
(4) I expect home field advantage to be a big help for the US team at the World Equestrian Games. In the National Football League, home field advantage has been shown by studies to be around 5% to 10%. Possible explanations for such a big home field advantage include more stress from traveling for the away team, the psychological advantage of having the fans cheering for the home team, and the influence of the fans on the officiating. All of these factors will play a role at the WEGs and they could make a big difference. At the 2008 Olympics, a 5% final score advantage for Australia would have given them gold instead of silver and a 10% advantage would have given Great Britain silver instead of bronze.
(5) Anything less than a medal by the US team is a complete failure. And no, pulling out an individual silver with a miraculous weekend by Comet will not make things better. History remembers the individual medals, but winning the team competition says a lot more about the quality and depth of a national program because it takes 3 horses to perform superbly rather than one pair just having the weekend of their life. I want to have a look at the final cross-country course and team rosters before making my WEG guesses picks, but my top three teams right now are (in no particular order) Germany, New Zealand, and USA, with Canada and Great Britain banging on the door. I’m not convinced that any other country will get three horses around the XC.
Go eventing.
