By the Numbers: Fair Hill CCI4*-S

After a couple of years serving as the final prep event prior to Kentucky, Fair Hill has moved back to its traditional date just one week before. This means that the majority of Kentucky entrants local to the area have chosen to compete in the Advanced combined test, leaving the CCI4*-S division open to the up-and-coming horses aiming for a CCI4*-L later this spring.

Photo by Sally Spickard.

Division Stats

  • In the last four years, not one pair has gone clear inside the time on cross country.
  • The last two runnings have seen the third-placed pair after dressage finish on top.
  • The dressage leader hasn’t won this division since 2015.

Boyd Martin and On Cue. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Dressage Divas

Percentage of pairs expected to score in the 20s — 4.76% (one of 21)

  • Boyd Martin and On Cue hold the strongest dressage average at this level from multiple runs and have dipped into the 20s in two of the mare’s four starts.
  • Cayenne is another horse new to the level but piloted by an experienced rider. Under Felix Vogg, she scored sub-30 in her first two starts at the level.
  • Fernhill Singapore also has dipped into the 20s in 50% of his first four starts at the level under the guidance of Phillip Dutton.
  • The final pair to keep an eye out for is an experienced horse with a new-to-the-level jockey. Alexa Lapp makes her CCI4*-S debut with Cambalda, who executed a strong 29.5 in the rider’s first Advanced at Carolina.

Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Singapore. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Show Jumping Powerhouses

Percentage of pairs expected to go clear in show jumping — 47.6% (10 of 21)

  • In four show jumping rounds at this level, Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Singapore have yet to have a rail down.
  • Arielle Aharoni and Dutch Times have had four Advanced and 4*-S starts since June of last year and have only incurred one rail thus far.
  • Katherine Coleman and Monte Classico have racked up a solid show jumping record, incurring a rail only twice in eight starts.
  • Lindsay Kelley and Cooley Cruise Control also only have a total of two rails on their record in eight starts.

Erin Sylvester and Campground. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Cross Country Machines

Percent of pairs expected to come within 10 seconds of optimum time — 9.5% (two of 21)

  • Erin Sylvester and Campground have finished either inside the time or with the fastest time at their last three consecutive cross country runs, one of which was in the Advanced at Fair Hill. The horse had a hiatus but was back at the level at Carolina recently.
  • Fylicia Barr and Galloway Sunrise have made a mark in their seven starts at this level, clocking in times that were the fastest of the day twice and within 15 seconds of the fastest time of the day on two other occasions.
  • Felix Vogg and Cayenne have run into trouble in the horse’s first two 4*-S outings, but at the beginning of the year, Felix guided her to the fastest round of the day in her first Advanced run at Rocking Horse.

Emily Beshear and Olney Uncle Sam. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Jack of All Trades

  • Olney Uncle Sam and Emily Beshear are a pair to really keep an eye on. These two will likely make it into the top five after dressage, and their one-or-none record in show jumping shows they more often jump a clear round than not. Although they aren’t the fastest overall on cross country, they started to pick up the pace last fall and could climb into a top placing this weekend with a fast round.

PREDICTED WINNER: Emily Beshear and Olney Uncle Sam

Emily Beshear and Olney Uncle Sam. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Keep Your Eye On

  • Boyd Martin and Ray Price
  • Boyd Martin and On Cue
  • Alexa Lapp and Cambalda
  • Katherine Coleman and Monte Classico

Fair Hill CIC & H.T. [Website] [Ride Times] [Live Results]

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