Welcome to part two of my Richland analysis; if you missed the first part this morning, click here to read all about the CIC3* competitors. Since we have both an Advanced division and a CIC3* division at Richland, you’re getting two articles for the price of one!
The Advanced division at Richland is comprised of a few stalwarts at this level, a few rising stars and quite a few pairs who are new to the level. For those that are moving up, I have a great big question mark, as there is no previous Advanced data to analyze. Therefore, I am including a list of horses who are making their debut so we can all keep an eye on them; after all, every rising star has to run their first Advanced somewhere.
The Advanced division is a bit less likely to hold to patterns, because for the green horses, I have only one or two data entries to work with. So few data entries do not create a clear picture, but it’s the best I have to work with at this point in time. In any case, there’s a few more experienced pairs who are more likely to rise to the top of the division, and these are mostly who I’ll be discussing here.
For the Advanced division, the dressage test will be 2014 USEF A-A. Just like the CIC3*, the cross country course designer is Ian Stark and the show jumping course designer is Marc Donovan.
1. Jennie Brannigan and Cambalda: Jennie and Cambalda haven’t performed this dressage test in the past two calendar years; in fact, they haven’t run an Advanced since before 2013. All of their results are currently from FEI events, but they are fairly consistent. In dressage, Cambalda usually scores around a 32.1, which ought to put them into the top two after the flat. Cambalda is a good show jumper and tends to put in clear rounds on Marc Donovan courses, or any other courses for that matter.
Jennie and Cambalda have been a partnership for a long time, and while they haven’t ridden around an Ian Stark course lately, they consistently come off cross country with no jump penalties and average 5.6 time penalties. I think they are going to run away with this Advanced division, finishing near 37.7 total penalties.
2. Kurt Martin and Anna Bella: Kurt and Anna Bella only moved up to Advanced at Carolina International, but they’ve already qualified for Rolex next year with no hiccups. Anna Bella hasn’t done this dressage test, but averages a 36.4 at the level. She jumped clear over the only Marc Donovan show jumping course that she has attempted, but incurred 3 time penalties.
Kurt and Anna have not yet had a cross country jump penalty at this level, although haven’t tried an Ian Stark course yet. They are quick to come home though, averaging only 6.8 time penalties. Kurt and Anna Bella should cruise home in second place, close to 46.2 penalties.
3. Erin Sylvester and No Boundaries: Erin and No Boundaries have been strong competitors at the Advanced level for a few years now, and their record shows how good their partnership is. They’ve performed this dressage test twice, averaging 36.8 from two scores that are fairly far apart. No Boundaries is one of those horses who is a bit all over the board, score wise; it all seems to depend on what kind of mood he’s in.
Luckily, No Boundaries is a good jumper, averaging just one rail on Marc Donovan courses and coming off Ian Stark courses with no jumping and an average of 10 time penalties. I expect this pair to finish somewhere around 50.8 total penalties, which should let them slip into the third slot.
4. Lillian Heard and Share Option: Lillian and Share Option have performed this dressage test twice already this year, averaging a 34.4 which should put them near the top of the division. This horse is quite a good show jumper and usually jumps clear over not just Marc Donovan’s courses, but all show jump courses.
While they are quite good on cross country and normally come home with no jump penalties, they are a bit slower and incurred 20.8 time penalties on their only Ian Stark course. If Lillian decides to put her foot on the gas, look for this pair to move up the rankings. Otherwise, they should end on penalties near 55.2, good enough for fourth.
5. Lauren Kieffer and Lucky Devil: Lauren and Lucky Devil haven’t attempted the 2014 USEF A-A test yet, but they average a 38.5 in dressage at this level. In their only attempt at an Ian Stark course, they came home clear, but with 22.4 time penalties.
However, that was Lucky Devil’s first Advanced, so I expect them to come home closer to their overall average time penalty score of 11.6. They’ve jumped several Marc Donovan courses, but average two rails and two time penalties, so look for this pair to finish with near 60.1 penalties, rounding out the top five.
THE DARK HORSE
Kelly Prather and Flagmount’s Nightcap: This will be Flagmount’s Nightcap’s first Advanced, so I don’t have any exact numbers for them. However, a quick glance through their record shows flat scores in the low 30s and high 20s at Intermediate, a fairly good cross country record since the gelding moved up to Intermediate last January, and several clear show jumping rounds. If Kelly and the horse are on, they could sneak into the top five at Nightcap’s first Advanced.
Callie Evans and Glendening Avis: Callie and Glendening Avis are quite green to this level, with only two attempts in 2013 and one try this year. The pair moved up to the Advanced level at the March Poplar Place, which is has been notoriously difficult as a precursor to Rolex, let alone as a first Advanced. They waited to try again until last year’s Richland Park, where they first completed.
A few weeks ago, Millbrook was their first attempt at Advanced in 2014, and they seemed to be rocking around cross country in fine form before they were pulled up for blood on the pale Glendening Avis. Needless to say, they’ve had a bad run of luck thus far. However, on the positive side, this pair scored in the low 30s last year and came out gangbusters at Millbrook with a 27.1 on the flat in a tough division.
In their two show jumping attempts at this level, Callie and Glendening Avis have had one rail in each round, and incurred four time penalties in their only attempt at a Marc Donovan course last year at Richland. Since the pair is still green to the level and are looking for consistent finishes, I don’t expect them to place in the top this weekend.
However, the pieces look to be falling into place, and with strong dressage and show jumping scores, Callie and Glendening Avis will be a force to be reckoned with once the cross country comes in line. Look for her next year near the top.