Badminton Showjumping: Looking at the Odds with EquiRatings

If this morning’s showjumping session proved anything, it’s that the riders to come won’t have an easy final day. It’s easy to make the assumption that once the gruelling cross-country test is behind them, the leaders have the competition in the bag – but tired horses, tricky courses, and tight time allowances have historically made the final phase influential. Looking ahead to our top twenty, who take to the ring shortly, we’ll see this play a massive role.

We’ve teamed up with the stats chaps at EquiRatings, who have crunched the numbers to give us all an idea of how, exactly, this might play out. This morning saw 33 horse and rider combinations post final phase rounds, and here’s what we learned:

One clear round out of 33, folks. If your heart rate isn’t increasing, we’re concerned about you.

So what does that mean in real world terms – i.e., in terms of the top ten contenders, those horses and riders who stand the most chance of lifting the trophy at the end of the day? Let’s take a closer look. This is how the jumping historically plays out at Badminton:

And how does that compare to the field of horses? Well, here are the top-rated showjumpers in the field. We’ve seen two of them this morning – Alex Bragg‘s Zagreb and Gemma Tattersall‘s Pamero 4 – and they notched up 4 and 8 penalties, respectively, indicated that we could see further issues for lower-rated showjumpers.

So let’s take a closer look at the top ten. Here’s where it gets seriously interesting, with only three of those top-rated showjumpers in this group.

In tenth place going into showjumping: Mark Todd and Leonidas II.

Padraig McCarthy and Mr Chunky – defying their first-timer status.

Speedy Arctic Soul and Gemma Tattersall – can they make it a hat trick?

The highest-placed North American combination of Lauren Kieffer and Veronica – can they defy the odds?

Another ride for Toddy, but one who has shown promise.

Cooley SRS – the first horse Oliver Townend rides in his bid for the Grand Slam.

Legendary La Biosthetique Sam FBW and Michael Jung – where will they end up on their final Badminton campaign?

Ros Canter and Allstar B – queen and king of consistency in this phase.

Neck and neck with Classic Moet and Jonelle Price, Oliver Townend needs a big result today to win the Grand Slam.

Our cross country leaders – can they make it a #girlpower win?

Make sure you give the EquiRatings Facebook page a like for more of these hard-hitting statistics – they’re churning out quantifiable predictions across the board. We’ll be back with the full lowdown from this afternoon’s action-packed final phase. Go eventing!

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