It’s time for the EN team to make their picks for the Paris podium! Want to join the fun? Drop your picks in the comments!
The Belgian team at the 2023 European Championships, where they qualified for Paris. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
TILLY BERENDT
Team Podium
Team Gold: On paper, it’s the Brits all the way – they have a 40% win chance according to EquiRatings, putting them miles ahead of the competition and hot favourites to retain their Tokyo gold. And I’d love that for them! But with my journalist hat on, rather than my personal affiliation hat, I think it has to be kept in mind that they aren’t infallible, and as we discovered at the World Championships in 2022 that sometimes, these Championship tracks don’t offer enough terrain or dimension to back off bold five-star horses, which makes them harder to ride. I think that could be an influential factor this week, and if it is, we could actually see teams of slightly less experienced horses, or horses who’ve been produced on the Championship pathway rather than the five-star pathway, rise to the top. And so, here’s my wild hair: after a really tough start to the week with both of Will Coleman’s horses out of contention, the USA claws it back with a milestone result and tops the podium, with three horses who are really, in the grand scheme of things, still at the start of their top-level careers. All three horses and riders are incredibly talented and have all the right stuff to do the job – this week, I think they’ll make all the pieces of the puzzle fit together, and the confidence lent by their upward trajectory over the last few years will only help them.
Team Silver: Reigning champion Julia Krajewski is now on the team, and I think, in a funny sort of way, being pulled in at the eleventh hour is a great mental preparation for this kind of situation, because as the reserve, you’ll have found your way to making peace with the situation and will be calm, prepared, and simply ready if needed. And so, if you are then pulled in, you’ve also not really had the reason to get into your own head about it, and now you don’t have the time. I think that’ll pull an incredible performance out of Liz for the US, and I think it’ll also help Julia lay down the law in all three phases with her ten-year-old Aachen winner, Nickel 21. I suspect she could finish best of the Germans, because fischerChipmunk’s penchant for a rail might get him again this week, and I think Christoph and Carjatan will be one of the fastest of the day on cross-country but might lag a penalty or two behind in the first phase if the horse feels the atmosphere of the stadium a bit too much. All in, though, I think they’ll each do what needs to be done and wind up on the podium.
Team Bronze: I think I probably have to put the Brits here because I can’t leave them off the podium, surely, even though they didn’t medal in Pratoni. I think they’ll have a close battle with France, though, who’ll put up one hell of a fight for a medal here, and who tend to be at their best at the Olympics.
Individual Gold
It’s hard to look past the icy-veined Ros Canter and the loveable Lordships Graffalo here – they’re our reigning European Champions, and won Badminton last year, and Ros, for her part, has also been World Champion. They did look slightly less on-form at Bicton CCI4*-S in May, though they still finished second on a very respectable score, and in her next run at Bramham CCI4*-S she opted to run with the handbrake on to get the rideability back, so that doesn’t really worry me much. I don’t think they’ll lead the dressage – that’ll be between Michael Jung and Laura Collett, both of whom could also easily win gold, but for the little niggle that both have variable championship form, and sometimes, it’s hard to get past that mental block. Both are extraordinary competitors, though, and both will have learned an enormous amount from their previous experiences. With all that said, though, I also think we’ll see France’s golden boy, Nicolas Touzaint, pull out the performance of his life on his Boekelo winner, Diabolo Menthe. They’re capable of starting on a 25 and staying there, and Nicolas, I think, is more likely to feel emboldened, rather than pressured by, the home crowd. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them get the job done; in the meantime, I’ll be dusting off my DuoLingo account ready to tackle that press conference.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
I’m going to surprise absolutely nobody here by standing firmly by Belgium. This is their first time fielding a team at an Olympics since London 2012, but over the last Olympic cycle, they’ve completely changed their structure – now, they have a cohesive team training system and a full roster of support staff, helmed by Chef d’Equipe Kai Steffen Meier, who took the role on in 2021 after a successful career as a top-level competitor for Germany. They’ve taken some time to settle into the new way of doing things, and team rider Lara de Liedekerke-Meier has had to also learn how to deal with having her husband play a unique role in her life – now, they’re not just business partners and life partners, but they also know how to deal with this different dynamic, a learning process that’s been helped along by Lara’s committed use of a performance coach, who has been an asset in giving her a new command of the mental side of the game. After a couple of tough years for her personally as a competitor, the extraordinary hard work she’s put in was rewarded with a string of incredible results, including Belgium’s first-ever five-star win at Luhmühlen in June. She’s joined on the team by the exceptionally talented Tine Magnus, who balances competing with helping run her family’s chicory farm, and whose Dia Van Het Lichterveld Z is one of the horses who excites me most in our sport, and has done since she was a six-year-old. The ultra-experienced Karin Donckers rounds out the team with Leipheimer van’t Verahof, a full brother to her stalwart Fletcha van’t Verahof, and much-loved friendly face Maarten Boon is an incredible asset in the reserve position. They’re on the up and up, individually and as a team, and their qualification for Paris at the European Championships (and their 2023 Nations Cup series victory, by a landslide) is the proof in the pudding. Belgium will become one of the major players in our sport, and this week, they could pull a serious result out of the bag.
Dark horse. Photo by Sally Spickard.
CHEG DARLINGTON
Team Podium
Going for Gold: Germany.
There’s no denying that there are some formidable teams in the Paris mix, but most formidable of all, for me, is Team Germany. They’re proven team gold medal winners (from the 2022 World Championships in Pratoni), and they’ve got the reigning Olympic Champion and a former Olympic and World Champion in their midst in Julia Krajewski and Michael Jung. They sure are carrying some weighty metal between the three of them, with six Olympic medals and seven from World Championships – that’s a whole lotta bling right there. Chipmunk FRH (Michael’s ride) was a team silver medalist in Rio, has won Kentucky 5*, been second at Aachen and was fifth individually in Pratoni; Julia’s exciting young talent, Nickel 21, comes to the Games in hot form, having won Aachen a couple of weeks ago; and relative new kid on the block, Christoph Wahler, was part of the golden Pratoni team with Luhmuhlen 5* runner-up and Aachen fourth place finisher Carjatan S. I mean, this team just smacks of quality and it will be no surprise to see them reign supreme in Paris.
More silver success for the US?
There’s a bit of a crossover here with the dark horse category, as I’m pitching Team USA to beat out the British and take silver, although, really, when we look at the World Championships in Pratoni (with two thirds of that silver medal team competing in Paris), Team USA can’t be considered dark horses at all, except for the literal dark horse in their ranks, HSH Blake. There’s, understandably, a lot of chat about Team GB, the reigning Olympic team gold medalists, however, in my honest opinion, I think the USA will pip them to the second step on the podium. Time will tell, but the US team are coming in hot, there’s absolutely no doubt about that. Team USA are somewhat of a triple threat, with a healthy mix of championships experience courtesy of Boyd Martin (who’s been to three Games and four World Championships), Liz Halliday’s consistency, and exciting new talent that’s been well and truly realized (when they won the individual honors at the Pan-Ams in Santiago) in Caroline Pamukcu and HSH Blake. And they have Sydney Elliot in the traveling reserve role, who was part of the US’s silver success in Santiago. I think spirits will be high in the US camp as they take on Paris, and for good reason.
Going against the grain and predicting bronze for Britain.
Being British, you’d think I’d be all patriotic and go for Great Britain to defend their title and take the gold, but for one, I live in Wales, (which yes, is technically Great Britain but I would be keen to see Wales competing under the Welsh flag at the Olympics one day; also, Welcome to Wrexham, y’all), and two, I’m not one to support a team solely because we share a nationality. Of course, the British team are awesome, and I’m throwing absolutely zero shade, but if I honestly think about how I see things playing out in Paris, this is how. I may be totally wrong, but it’s all part of the fun and we’ll see how things actually stand on Monday. I’ll be equally thrilled for whoever’s on the podium and whoever goes out there and gives it their best shot on the horse they’re riding; I’m unequivocally a champion of our sport and have total respect for everyone talented enough, brave enough, dedicated enough – and who show the top levels of horsemanship needed – to do it, and I also know that the medals will fall where they may. This game’s an awful lot about preparation, of course it is, but there’s always that little bit of ‘luck on the day’ with horses. Do I think this team’s as strong as the Tokyo team? Absolutely. But do I think history will repeat itself this time around? I’m not so sure.
Individual Gold
Karma comes good, finally, for Michi.
We all know how things have played out thus far for Michael Jung and fischerChipmunk (that frangible device, that ducking at the European Championships, that fence at Pratoni…). I was thrilled for Julia when she won in Tokyo, but this time I think it’ll, fairly, be Michi’s turn at the top of the podium. I distinctly remember the excitement surrounding Chip when he first hit the international stage, and despite all the success he’s deservedly had, I can’t help but feel he’s not quite reached the lofty echelons expected of this talented gelding… yet. He’ll put that right in Paris. But I think Ros Canter’s Walter (Lordships Graffalo) will give him a run for his money.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
One word: ‘gold-kini’.
Shane Rose has said, on record, that he’ll wear a gold-kini if he wins the Olympics. So yes, I want to put his word to the test and see if, one, he actually owns a gold-kini (what, does he have a whole bunch of mankinis in his closet?), and two, I think it will liven up proceedings dramatically should he wear it to the medal ceremony. On the other hand, no, I’m not sure I’m ready to witness such a sight, having had the orange debacle burned into my retinas for the foreseeable. I do wonder what ‘Virg’ thinks of Shane’s exploits in underwear as outerwear (or is it in fact swimwear?). In all seriousness, this pair are an epic team; Shane’s a fearless competitor and Virgil really is an eventer’s eventer, up for the game and relishing a good gallop. They were on the team podium in Tokyo and I’d love to see them up there in their own right in Paris. Shane’s overcome more than his fair share of bumps and bruises to make it to the Games and it would be a cool story should he take home a medal with his veteran campaigner.
Time for Another Gold Medal? Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
DIANA GILBERTSON
Team Podium
Well, well, well, as if life wasn’t complicated enough, I’m now being asked who will win what. In short, I have no idea, and I am reluctant to make any guesses really, because this is the Olympics and anything can happen. Add horses, frangible pins and no drop score into that and you really do bust it wide open — that Gold is there for the taking, and it really is anyone’s guess which team will eventually step up onto that top step. Still, there are a few obvious contenders, and I have spent many an hour thinking about this, and weighing up all of the possibilities. This is what I have come up with — fingers crossed I get at least one of them right, because I really do HATE being wrong…
Team Gold:
Again, if I am being perfectly honest, I am not 100% decided on this, but I narrowed it down to two teams and then the patriotic side of me won out, and that is pretty much how I got here. Yep, I would say that Team GB are going to take home an historic consecutive Gold medal. I am also now terrified that I have jinxed it, and that they are now not going to, and it will be all.my.fault. Hopefully that is just my stupid, overly superstitious brain, and that won’t actually be the case. On a serious note though, it is very hard to look past the Brits. Admittedly, all but Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo have proved themselves fallible – it may be two years since London 52 had that ‘gasp moment’ at the World Championships in Pratoni, running past the skinny at the bottom of the slide. Similarly, the last minute parting of ways for Tom McEwen and JL Dublin at the final water in Haras du Pin at last years Europeans is still very fresh in my mind. However, they all seem to have come out stronger as a result, and arguably, mistakes like that only help to make you even better next time out. That is certainly the case with Tom and ‘Dubs,’ who won the CCI4*-S in Kronenberg on a 20.9 dressage, and have since been runner up in both Kentucky (5*) and Luhmuhlen (4*-S). Admittedly, London’s overreach in Luhmuhlen prevented them from entirely proving themselves, but their first phase performance proved what a formidable partnership they are, and their form leading up to that really was impeccable, with wins at Bicton and Burnham Market CCI4*-S under their belt. Add to that the incredible Ros and Walter who, as I say, have yet to fault (oh please, do not let that be a jinx), and it seems difficult to see past this team. Especially since all three horses are almost faultless show jumpers too, which can only ever be a good thing with two rounds of jumping to contend with on Monday. AND (sorry, I know I’m getting carried away here) all three also have past Olympic experience, and are aware of the potential psychological pitfalls that may await them, under the pressure of an Olympic Games, and how best to avoid them. SO yeah, short answer – Gold = Team GB.
Team Silver:
I promise I will make this shorter than the veritable essay I gave you for Team Gold. (I mean is anyone still reading my drivel at this point?) I would say that the Silver goes to Germany. They missed out on a Team Medal in Tokyo, and although they did redeem themselves at the World and European Championships with Gold and Silver, respectively, they will not want to leave Paris without an Olympic team medal, that is for sure. They are sending a slightly reduced version of the same team, with Sandra Auffarth, Michael Jung and Christoph Wahler all riding the same horses that they did at those championships, so that in itself would suggest that they are capable of bringing home a medal, albeit not necessarily the colour they would ideally want. Arguably, Michael’s and fischerChimpmunk will be well out in front after dressage, but there have been a few too many blips to say that he will remain there, and give the Team the strong shot for the Gold that they will be hoping for. Hold on! I hear you say, Team GB is not without fault, you wrote a dissertation excusing that, why is this different?! I guess in my mind, it has happened once too often, and I just don’t want to put all of my eggs in the Chipmunk basket, when time and again he has done something – even just clipping a pole – to knock him off the top. Add to that Sandra and Viamant du Matz’s recent 20 in Aachen, as well as their 20 penalties at the last Olympics, and it just seems like a few things can – and have – gone a little wrong, and it is those tiny mistakes that could prevent Germany taking Gold. Even Christoph Wahler and Cartajan S who were undeniably consistent at the World’s and the Europeans, taking fourth place at the latter, had a random 22 cross country penalties at Marbach in the Spring. Even if that was just a blip though, their first phase score is certainly very good, but again, for me, it is not going to be good enough to threaten the dressage divas of Team GB, and again, will prevent Germany taking – or keeping – the lead overall. Oh heck, we’re in essay territory again…Apologies. On to Bronze…
Team Bronze:
I think this was the hardest one for me to decide on. As in, I knew which two teams I had to choose between for Gold and Silver, but it has proven incredibly hard to narrow it down for one team for Bronze. The closet Kiwi in me once to say it will be Team New Zealand, and while I am no saying that is out of the question (see the lengthy preamble on how ANYTHING is possible at the Olympics), especially with the collective experience of Team Price leading the way, I do think they will have one hell of a battle to get onto that podium again. It goes without saying that the Belgian team are heading to Paris on one heck of a good wave. Lara de Liedekerke Meier has just won her – and their – first ever 5*, and the team as a whole, with Lara’s husband Kai at the helm, have gone from strength to strength these last few years – just ask Tilly. However, while I think that they will put up a bloody good fight for a medal, I can’t help but think that it will be the Australian team who snatch it from their grasp. It will undoubtedly have been a blow to the Team *NOT* to have their absolute stalwarts, Andrew Hoy and Vassily de Lassos lining up for Andrew’s millionth games, after an uncharacteristic few blips in the build up, but they have still managed to put together one hell of a team. Even travelling reserves, Shenae Lowings and Bold Venture have a consistent and reliable record, belying their relative inexperience. Chris Burton’s return to the sport after a three year absence will have certainly assuaged the loss of Andrew Hoy, especially given the strength of the partnership between he and Shadowman, despite only having been together since earlier this year. He proved he is still the fastest man in eventing with a wall to wall victory in the CCI4*-S in Millstreet on their last run before the Olympics, and with Chris’ experience as a pure show jumper, the two rounds on the final day should not trouble them at all. Add to that the undeniably consistent and dependable Shane Rose and Virgil part of the Silver medal winning team, and 10th individually in Tokyo and mainstays of Australia’s Championship team. As if that wasn’t enough, Kevin McNab and Don Quidam, also part of that Tokyo team, and 14th individually, have also got the call up. Add all of those ingredients together, and for me, you have a medal winning team. Not a Gold, nor necessarily a Silver, but enough to get themselves up onto that podium in the same dogged and determined way that saw them get there in Tokyo.
Individual Gold
You will be overjoyed to read that this was a relatively straightforward decision for me, and as such, I am not going to bore you with the train of thought that led me here. Plus, I don’t really think that it needs that much clarification. It’s Ros Canter current World Number 1, former World Champion, current European Champion, multiple 5* winner and the wonderful, inimitable and arguably unbeatable, Lordships Graffalo, AKA Walter. Like I say, no elaboration or justification needed. Or if you think that there is, then I suggest you take a look here, and hear from Ros herself just how great this horse is, and in doing so, remind yourself how incredible his jockey is, too.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
This is another brain blocker for me, mainly because I don’t really know what counts as a dark horse. Like how do you determine who is or isn’t? Since there is no one to police the category or at least clarify the rules, I shall take a stab in the dark (sorry, no pun intended, honest), and say Team Ireland. They have been quietly plugging away, doing the work, and slowly but surely, getting the results. You only need look as far back as Aachen as proof, with a third place in the Nation’s Cup there. Admittedly, it was not the same team that will line up in Paris, but it is evidence enough of their increasingly good form. Austin O’Connor and Colorado Blue, winners of Maryland 5* last year, heads up the Team in Paris, and what a weapon they are. Best of the Irish in Tokyo – despite initially being Team Reserve – their reputation on cross country day is almost impeccable, bar a blip at Burghley last year. Susie Berry and Wellfields Lincoln may not have similar experience to fall back soon – this will be Slinky’s first Championship- but Susie has proven herself time and again to be a fierce and determined competitor, bringing home a good result when it counts. Ditto Sarah Ennis and Action Lady M, one of the youngest horses in the field at just 10 years old (and also one of, if not the smallest horse at 14.3hh), but like Austin, Sarah can be relied upon to fly around the cross country close to, or safely within, the optimum time. All of that consistency will add up, and while they may not land on the podium, I would say that they won’t be far off, cementing Ireland’s place as a burgeoning threat to the superpowers of the sport.
Will we see a three-time gold medalist? Michael Jung and fischerChipmunk FRH. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
ALLIE HENINGER
Team Podium
Great Britain Reigns (Team Gold)
Original, I know – but I’m a stats girlie through and through, and Team GB’s Paris contenders are off the charts in a way that just can’t be overlooked. With our Euro Champs Queen and 2023 Badminton winners on the team in Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo, Tokyo #9 rider Laura Collett and her “Top-Ten” partner London 52 (check out his FEI record, you’ll see what I mean), and reigning Olympic Silver medalist Tom McEwen aboard previous Euro-Champ JL Dublin, it’s hard to argue that this will go any other way than victory for the Brits. When you have such a star-studded team that one of the most competitive international selection committees places the current World Champion Yasmin Ingham as your alternate… you have to be pretty confident in your chance of success. Lordships Graffalo especially is about as consistent as they come, and after having the last several years to examine every inch of the grounds at Versailles with a magnifying glass, tweaking and adjusting every question and obstacle to create the best show possible, his consistency will be key in what’s sure to be a highly-influential phase.
Tom and Laura will be reigniting their Team Gold partnership – one which obviously proved quite successful just three years ago – and when the new blood is as rich as that of Ros and Walter’s, I can’t see any reason why they wouldn’t put in just as competitive of results as they did during Tokyo – or more so, given the rather less hostile biosecurity measures needing to be taken this year. And to bring it all back to the basics of math and science itself, as I love to do, EquiRatings has just released their Prediction Centre, which places our three GB riders in the top three most likely to medal. Can’t argue much with that.
Germany Shines (Team Silver)
In a once-again ballsy move, placing the reigning Olympic Gold Medalist as your team’s traveling alternate shows a level of confidence that I will likely never reach in a lifetime, but despite her attempted benching, Julia Krajewski RETURNS to defend her 2020 title, offering some wisdom only those officially dubbed Best Rider in the World (Literally) can provide with. Nickel 21 may be young, but he has only been outside the top 10 three times in international competition, which is a rousing recommendation when paired with Julia’s expertise.
Team Germany also has the only other actively competing Gold medal winner in the saddle in Michael Jung (a bit overkill if you ask me, give the other teams a chance). Do you think he brought both his Olympic Gold medals with him to Paris? Because there’s no way I’d pass up the chance to take a picture in front of the Eiffel Tower with three Golds around my neck (a totally realistic and rational mental scenario for myself, of course). And this doesn’t even factor in Christoph Wahler and Carjatan’s offensively-clean record over the past few seasons, as well as their steadily-decreasing dressage marks, making him the most capable to potentially offset any rails or frangibles his teammates may take — especially in a game where show jumping happens twice. These three are really going to be putting pressure on Team GB.
US Makes a Comeback (Team Bronze)
The last time the whole of Team USA was on the podium at the Olympic Games was in Athens 2004, when one of my childhood all-star role-model partnerships in Kim Severson and Winsome Andante took the Individual Silver, leading the US to a Team Bronze. Twenty years seems about long enough to wait I think, especially since our team is as rock-solid as I’ve seen yet. When asked a few months back why the US wasn’t really publishing a short-list, I told my barn mates, “Why would we need to? We pretty much know who’s going to be up there.”
We’ve all tuned in to the Will, Boyd, and Liz show at practically every East Coast event all year, and Caroline Pamukcu and HSH Blake haven’t missed a single step at every event they’ve conquered (and won). While this might not be the equine line-up I – or many other Americans – may have pictured last fall, of the horses able to make the flight, these are easily our best and brightest. They’ve each held their own internationally, and I think (aside from my aforementioned teams), they have the potential to be highly-competitive against every other combination out there. While we are all absolutely gutted for Will to be out of the running with both his equine partners, last night’s addition of Sydney Elliott as our new official traveling reserve means that I get another chance to fangirl my absolute favorite horse in the country in QC Diamantaire, who is more than ready to step in if needs be to help our team.
Also… I’m an American, and it’d just be really nice, okay? Will they give us a medal if I ask pretty please?
Individual Gold
Chipmunk FRH has won 50% of every event he’s completed since Tokyo – where he still finished eighth, by the way – so if he can keep the pins in the frangibles this go-round, I feel like this horse will be leading the field from the get-go. It’s no surprise for anyone to predict that a German will lead after dressage, and so unsurprising I shall be. This Olympic test is a difficult and strange beast, and so with the lowest 6RA (21.2) and highest Elo rating out of 81 riders, this pairing are going to come out the gate competitive as hell. Provided he doesn’t present one of his fluke rounds in cross country or show jump with a spare rail or refusal, I think good ole’ Chip can maintain a lead over all three days in Paris. If we do see a slip-up though, I guarantee Lordships Graffalo, or London 52, will be an inch behind, waiting to take advantage and surge past – so Michi better stay sharp and steer Chip straight if he wants that triple-gold photo op.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
Why not both?
Talk about waiting – the last time Belgium saw any podium action at the Olympics was in 1920 (only the second year that eventing was featured), and I think a century is about enough time to let pass before we are allowed a repeat. While you’ve at this point already read through what I’m sure is a love ballad to Belgium in Tilly’s picks, and a great deal of our Belgian love (non-waffle-related, that is) is on behalf of the powerhouse that is Lara de Liedekerke-Meier – who frankly, could’ve made a team out of just her own horses, if that was allowed. She wins Jardys, she wins Kronenbergs, she wins Luhmühlen – and on Origi himself, she’s been allergic to anything below fourth or fifth place for some time. My prediction is another fourth or fifth place triumph for this frontrunner, just barely out of the medals, but enough for everyone else in the world to sit up and take notice once again.
On the team side of things, Karin Donckers has literally been on the team in every Olympics since I’ve been alive, so I think that alone is enough of an endorsement as my grassroots-record self is allowed. And while Tine Magnus isn’t someone who’s been on my personal radar, her results at Strzegom a few months ago and fairly consistent dressage scores with Dia lead me to think that this lot will be steady crawlers, sneaking their way through the ranks of the “Top 6” nations to hold their own.
Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.
EMA KLUGMAN
Team Podium: Brits Gold, Germans Silver, Aussies Bronze
Most eventing enthusiasts would agree that the dominant nations of the sport at the moment are Germany and Great Britain. The Brits have so much depth in their team that they gave the reigning world champion, Yasmin Ingham, the reserve spot. Any other nation would happily take three Yas’s to make up their team! The Germans have a robust system of developing riders and horses, and are particularly good at keeping their best horses in their country. I would expect the team gold and silver medals to be a race between the Brits and the Germans, and then the bronze spot to be a tussle between some of the less dominant, but still strong, eventing nations. The Australian team boasts significant experience (of both riders and horses), and generally their strong jumping performances have them in the hunt. However, it is important to remember that the three-person team format means there is no drop score– so if a single team rider from GB or Germany has an issue on cross country, they will be out of the medal hunt, meaning it could be anyone’s game!
Individual Gold
Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo are my pick to win the whole damn thing. They are extremely consistent, and if the time on cross country proves hard to get, they are almost guaranteed to make the time. Ros is a wonderful role model for all riders in our sport, but particularly for women. Her focus and determination are incredible, and she will be very hard to beat. Finally, she has Olympic experience already, having served as the traveling reserve in Tokyo, so she knows exactly what to expect. We should expect her to leave it all on the court in Paris.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
It seems fitting to pick a horse called “Shadow Man” to be the dark horse of the competition. Shadow Man has been somewhat in the shadows for the last few years with his original rider Ben Hobday. While he would not have made the extremely competitive British team with Ben aboard, the horse did in fact put competitive scores on the board with Chris Burton of Australia this spring– doing enough to gain Australian selection. The individual medals at the Olympics are won and lost in the show jumping– and Burto has been jumping 1.50-1.60 tracks for the past several years on his string of jumpers, so I’d say his odds in that phase are rather good. If he does manage to win an individual medal, Burto will show that an extremely successful partnership can be forged with a horse in a short amount of time.
Austin O’Connor and Colorado Blue. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
SALLY SPICKARD
Team Podium
This is a tough one for me, and as much as I think I could be proven wrong, I am still going to bet on the Brits to take another team gold. Yes, there are a couple of mishaps on the records of some of these horses, but in particular I think Ros Canter as the anchor rider will help solidify a strong cross country performance. The one thing that will trouble the team could be this phase, though, as with its dimensions and lack of terrain it *could* be difficult to back off a horse accustomed to running big 5* courses. Truth be told, though, the performance in Tokyo shouldn’t be discounted, and the team returns two of its Tokyo riders this year in an effort to bolster another victory.
It’s been a whirlwind of upheaval amongst the U.S. team, with multiple replacements already made before the competition begins, but I still put my money on the U.S. to get up on the podium, and I’m going to manifest into existence a silver medal to match the one earned in Pratoni. Will we missing Will Coleman’s quiet expertise this weekend? Yes. Will Liz Halliday be strapping on her racecar driver mentality and locking in to step in to this role? Absolutely. I think it’s a good time to be an American rider, and I think the efforts of the whole system will pay off this weekend.
Bronze is also a tough call, as I think you could throw a handful of nations at the wall and still end up with a bronze team. I’m going to divert from the predictions I made on EquiRatings last week and put Australia on the podium here. Chris Burton will be a strong rider, despite his absence from eventing for a couple of season (you can take the boy out of eventing, and so on), and with speed being surely a factor come Sunday on cross country coupled with Chris’ expertise in the final phase, along with the incredible determination of Shane Rose and the experience of Kevin McNab, the Aussies surely have a strong chance for a medal here.
Individual Gold
Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo are my pick here. They’re among the most consistent in the field and have already proven themselves capable of winning a championship under pressure. Pierre Le Goupil’s cross country will look different than his Europeans track, which Ros was victorious on with this horse, but she’s a fierce competitor who knows exactly what it takes to win a medal, and she’s got a horse who’s ready to throw his heart over the line for her in all three phases.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
Most of my friends by now know of my obsession with Colorado Blue, the ride of Ireland’s Austin O’Connor who absolutely exploded onto the mainstream radar as a last minute call-up in Tokyo. This pair then followed up that performance with a 5* win at Maryland in 2023. This horse truly has all of the ingredients to be an individual medalist and/or to assist the Irish to a team medal, and while it remains to be seen whether this track will suit him, I think it’s safe to say that he’s a versatile, rideable horse that will likely thrive on just about any course you throw at him. I would not be shocked to see Austin on the podium or quite close to it when the dust settles come Monday.
Lara de Liedekerke-Meier and Origi. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
GILLIAN WARNER
Team Podium
Great Britain for Gold: All of these teams bring forward some serious talent. But my pick for top of the podium goes to Great Britain. With Olympic Gold medalists in Laura Collett and Tom McEwen, and 2018 World Champion Ros Canter, this team will be hard to beat.
Silver to Germany: While I picked Great Britain for Gold, Germany will give them a tough competition. With three time Gold medalist Michael Jung, Olympic champion (and first woman to win a Gold in eventing!) in Julia Krajewski, and winning Pratoni team member Christoph Wahler, the German team is packed with experience and skill.
United States takes Bronze: Despite the shuffle we saw with the U.S. team, with the experience of three-time Olympian Boyd Martin, the numerous top 4* and 5* placings of Liz Halliday, and talent of individual Gold Pan-Ams winner Caroline Pamukcu, the United States is set to leave an impression.
Individual Gold
I’m anticipating seeing Michael Jung and Chipmunk FRH at the top of the leaderboard. With some wildly impressive sub-20 scores at Bramham and the World Equestrian Games, they’ll be tough to catch.
Dark Horse (Team or Individual)
I’ll be keeping my eye on Team Belgium. With Lara de Liederkerke-Meier’s recent historic first 5* win for Belgium at Luhmühlen, six-time Olympian Karin Donckers, and 4* winner Tine Magnus, I’m excited to see how these ladies progress through the week!
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