EN is delighted to partner with EquiRatings to bring you thought-provoking analysis on the future of eventing. Thank you to EquiRatings for allowing EN to share these articles. Click here to read more from EquiRatings, and be sure to follow them on Facebook and Twitter. Go Eventing.

Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST at Kentucky 2018. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

“Since the removal of the dressage multiplier, show jumping has become so influential — you just can’t afford to have a fence down if you want to win.”

Let’s qualify this. From 2014 to 2017 there were 2,650 international events and 69% of them were won with a clear show jumping round. In 2018, there were 703 international events and 72% of them were won with a clear show jumping round.

What about the more competitive internationals? Let’s look at internationals with 20 starters or more. From 2014 to 2017 there are 1,604 internationals that meet this criterium and 78% were won with a clear show jumping. In 2018, there were 418 internationals and 82% were won with a clear show jumping.

Since the removal of the dressage multiplier there has been an increase in the percentage of internationals won with a clear show jumping round. It is statistically significant, but the percentage increase is probably not as high as people thought. It has always been important to jump clear in order to win. It is vital to jump clear cross-country if you want to win, but do we say that cross-country is very influential because of this? No, we don’t. It is more about the overall contribution of penalties, but it must be relevant to winning because that is what drives the sport.

How we describe the phase influence in this article is based on how the top 50% of performers within each phase score penalties, using international results from 2014 to 2018 (the usual dressage multiplier adjustment applies). We break it down by class type because there is a big difference. For the dressage phase, we put the best score on zero so that we can compare it on the same scale as the other phases. The best score is usual in the mid-teens and the median score is usually in the mid-30s, so the plot usually goes from 0 to 20 rather than 15 to 35.

Why do we analyse only the top 50%? This approach focuses on the what it takes to win angle. In order to win an international, the sport should be aiming to require a competitor to perform in the top 50% within each phase – it’s not really an all-round sport otherwise. There is a cost to not performing in the top 50% but focusing on this is actually more of a distraction. Take a hypothetical situation where half the competitors go clear and inside the time on cross-country and the other half get eliminated. On one hand, the phase has been uninfluential because half of the field are on the same perfect score of zero, but on the other hand, the other half of the field are now out of the competition.

Don’t pain your head trying to account for these situations – we have done it for years! We don’t want half of the field eliminated – well, some might but the sport doesn’t. It doesn’t look good and it messes up TV and spectating when half of the field don’t jump the last fence. So, focus on the solution and the why. A competitive eventing result should be one where a competitor performs in the top 50% of each phase – that is hard to argue with, Now, let’s see what that looks like.

5*-L – Old CCI4*

This is the level of the sport where cross-country matters. Notice the difference between dressage and show jumping though. The top 50% range in dressage is about 15 penalties from the best performer to the median performer. In show jumping, nearly half of the field that remain will score less than 8 penalties. 20% of starters in the show jumping will add zero penalties. The top 20% of dressage performers will be almost 10 penalties behind the leader.

4*-L – Old CCI3*

The most notable difference is the drop in cross-country penalties when assessing the median. Regarding the top performers and what influences winning, the dressage phase has already become dominant. With regards to show jumping, we are seeing even more clear rounds, and the median value is now only 4 penalties. Show jumping might be the final phase and leave a recency bias – but already its influence is clearly way below the other phases.

3*-L – Old CCI2*

The percentage of competitors that pick-up zero penalties in both show jumping and cross-country is increasing noticeably. So much so that we don’t need statistics to point this out to us. We are entering the levels where a different ‘type’ of horse is preferred. Perhaps this is why show jumping feels so important, because more and more people jump clear. It adds pressure and non-clears feel expensive. But look at cross-country diminish. Are we really eventing at these levels?

2*-L – Old CCI1*

Where is the cross-country line? Most of the top 50% score zero so the impact of cross-country basically disappears. Hence the evolution of the phrase ‘dressage competition’. Again, show jumping feels important but it pales in comparison to dressage – however, the influence of show jumping notably overtakes that of cross-country in this class type. The problem for the sport is that this level has the highest volume.

This graph explains in one image why most young eventers spend hours trotting in circles and then blast dressage horses around the cross-country, picking-up zero penalties but not necessarily riding well. If the sport has a future then change should start here. This is not balance – this is domination. We can’t really lament the the art of cross-country disappearing if this is how the majority of the sport is weighted and influenced. If you want people to train a certain way or breed/produce a certain type of horse, then make the attributes matter.

Conclusion

What feels or what appears to be influential is susceptible to our flawed human perception at times. Ingrid Klimke lost the gold medal at WEG in the last second of the entire competition. It carries the most amount of recency bias. While her show jump cost her gold, don’t ignore the phenomenal advantage that she built up in the first phase. She still finished ahead of Andrew Hoy who scored above 70% in dressage and finished on it. In the international sport over the past five seasons, 58% of competitors have finished between 0 and 4 penalties in the show jumping. That is not a large amount of influence. Next time Ingrid does a low 20s, or even teens dressage, don’t expect 58% of the field to be within 4 penalties of her!

Sam Watson, founder and product director at EquiRatings and 2018 World Equestrian Games team silver medalist for Ireland, wrote a thought-provoking opinion piece last week about the future of eventing. Thank you to EquiRatings for allowing us to share this article on EN. Click here to read more articles from EquiRatings. Go Eventing.

Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Last week I posted the ‘why’ article. It posed the question of what the objective of eventing should be – why should we do what we do? Those questions will ultimately be answered by people with far more experience and knowledge than me, but I have since been asked for my opinion, so here it is…

No one will write the ideal script in a week, so expect flaws in my initial draft. Like most things, you will get it wrong plenty of times before you get it right, so I’m sure the key principles will evolve or even pivot. However, it is times for progress, not perfection…

Objective: To have three major events that each attract 5 million viewers. To be achieved within the next five years.

Why 5 million viewers? If 5 million people want to watch the sport then it is a great spectacle. There will never be 100% agreement about the ideal length of a cross-country course, the max height of a show jump or whether dressage technicality should increase, so we should focus on a macro objective that has more commonality. Successful sport should inspire and excite – the metric to assess if we are achieving that is viewership. The figure of 5 million will need refining – the objective should push the boundaries of what is possible, but it should be achievable.

Why three major events? Regarding growth, the foundation of the overall economy, if you can’t see it you can’t be it. You have to put your sport in front of viewers if you want growth and economic health. Children pick up a tennis racket because of Grand Slams like Wimbledon or a golf club because of Majors such as the Masters. Showcase your very best, therefore a select group of events that push the elite athletes out of their comfort zone would be my idea of how to sell our product.

Why within the next five years? If your goal doesn’t have a timeline then you are less likely to achieve it and you are highly likely to be inefficient. No more trying – trying is accepting failure as an option. It is time to do.

Sam Watson, the founder and product director at EquiRatings and 2018 World Equestrian Games team silver medalist for Ireland, wrote a thought-provoking opinion piece that asks tough questions about the future of eventing. Thank you to EquiRatings for allowing us to share this article on EN. Click here to read more articles from EquiRatings. Go Eventing.

Sam Watson and Horseware Ardagh Highlight at Luhmühlen 2018. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Leaving the house for a three-day event means saying goodbye to two young boys aged four and five. They ask the question ‘why?’ a lot …! If it concerns vegetable consumption, the question doesn’t get as much air-time, but as two adoring faces look up at me as I carry my last two bags out to the lorry, I pause to entertain their enquiries.

-“Daddy, why are you and Mummy going away?”

“Because we’re taking Ben and Toby (the horses) to an event.”

-“Why?”

“Because eventing is fun and it’s what Mummy and Daddy do.”

-“Why?”

“Because Daddy gets to go cross country and jump lots of cool fences really quickly.”

-“Why?”

“Er, because someone thought that would be a good idea a long time ago…?!”

The conversation ends when the children have taken the adult to a place where the adult becomes unsure. They are satisfied, whilst I am left pondering the meaning of life, or in this case, eventing. I think the kids are on to something though. Why is eventing what it is? Riders bemoan a lack of prize money. Event organisers bemoan a lack of income. Sponsors bemoan a lack of audience reach. We have the constant balance between safety and spectacular, but what are we actually aiming for? What is the objective of eventing?

Phase Influence

Eventing is a three phase sport. Cross-country is the only phase that is unique to eventing with dressage and show jumping existing in their own independent forms. What should the balance be between the phases? Should all three be equal – a 1:1:1 ratio? The complete and balanced test of horse and rider. Or should dressage and show jumping be equal, with cross-country holding more importance – a 1:2:1 type ratio? I have heard a ratio in the past which heavily weighted cross-country as the most influential, with dressage then taking more weight than show jumping. Whatever the balance is, I believe that it is vital that this influence ratio is agreed upon and made known to all.

Knowing the target influence of the sport would help us to explain it and manage it so much more effectively. We have some judges that use a wide range of marks while others keep the scores tightly bunched. We have cross-country courses that result in one person achieving the best score and we have others that result in over 50% of the competition achieving what is deemed to be the optimum score. Without a clear objective we don’t know what is correct. Can over 50% of competitors achieving a score of zero on cross-country really be accurately describing the optimum level of performance? Surely it is just the average level of performance?

We could argue that the sport has gravitated towards one where we compete dressage horses in the cross-country rather than train cross-country horses to perform dressage. Competitively, this makes complete sense. At the WEG in 2018, sixteen horses scored zero on cross-country, but one horse received just short of a four-penalty lead in the dressage. If you want to win in eventing then be exceptional in dressage and be good enough in the jumping phases. As a rider, we keep pushing the boundaries of what is possible. Generally, we have horses with more dressage movement and less stamina and quick footwork. Why? Because cross-country doesn’t matter as much as dressage. This only throws up more questions. The biggest ones we need to discuss more — is this the objective of eventing? Are the objectives of riders aligned with those who must govern the sport nationally and internationally?

How Do We Make Cross Country Matter More?

What is the purpose of cross country? What are we testing and why? In the old days it was about survival, but those days are gone through no choice of anyone within the sport. The Aintree Grand National changed its fence profile to reduce fallers, it was either that or get shut down. To quote Darwin “adapt or die”. Personally, I see cross country as a skill-based sport. I don’t see why horses need to fall any more than one in fifty starters, or even one in every one hundred starters, even at the highest level. With the use of varied terrain there will be inevitable trips and stumbles, as well as the odd misjudgement, but we can manage the crashing rotational falls better. They are frightening, not exciting.

Intensity has become a bad word. As has speed. Stamina is a safety concern. I would test speed and intensity more. I believe that this results in sharp reactions, and high levels of skill which produce excitement. We want horses to think quickly, we want riders to be skilled and we want audiences to be enthralled.

I would make a clear distinction between short format and long format eventing. Like cricket (T20 vs Test) or rugby (Sevens vs Test), they are almost different sports. Too often, horses bred for short format that attempt the long format results in fatigue and injury. The short format can work brilliantly; equine stars being seen on a regular basis, show jumping tested to a higher level with fresher legs, and speed and intensity rounding off a crowd-pleasing spectacle. Aachen is a great showcase of the short format. ERM have shown that it can attract a new audience.

The short format often results in very few or even no competitors achieving the optimum time on the cross country, so it then becomes more influential as a phase. Short format also has a far lower horse fall rate than long format at each level of the sport. Stamina could be a factor, as could longer galloping stretches with horses being more susceptible to switching off. However, long format events regularly produce extremely high proportions of the field jumping clear and within the time. How do we make long format cross country matter again?

What are we trying to test? Accuracy? The knocked-flag rule is not liked by some. Precision? Penalties for frangible activations are not liked by some. I don’t think it is fair to horses to make the fences narrower or more acute. I don’t think it makes sense to build the solid obstacles any higher (although I do think the max heights should be used more). Terrain is definitely a ‘must use’ in order to test footwork and the ability to correctly balance a horse, but beyond that, I believe there is scope for debate about the future of cross country.

Skill-based sports should improve. The next generation should be better than the current one. But with so many competitors already achieving the perfect score on cross country, how do we advance the test. Option fences being penalised? Knocked flags being penalised? Knocked fences being penalised? Speeds being increased?

We can discuss those tactical changes until the cows come home, but we will get nowhere without a clear understanding of why. Why do we leave the start-box? Why should owners buy horses? Why do we train and compete? Why do fans come to watch or tune in on the livestream? Why should sponsors get behind eventing?

What is the perfect eventing performance? Why? Horses with the quality of La Biosthetique Sam FBW are becoming very rare. The three-quarter bred is now the half-bred. Why? What is eventing and what is cross-country? What does the future look like and why are we going there?