Cross Country Powerhouses of Tokyo

I’ve lost track of the day, the hour, and possibly my mind. There’s spreadsheets on spreadsheets and my computer has crashed several times, but it’s worth it to see all the lovely graphs that I’ve developed. There’s nothing quite like looking at performance in a graph; when I look at numbers, they tell me a story. But when I put them in a graph, they come alive for others, and that is even better.

Let’s briefly talk course designer. Derek di Grazia has a very solid record of track design in America; he has designed the Elkton (Fair Hill) 4*-L for decades and has been the Kentucky 5*-L designer since Mike Etherington-Smith stepped aside after the 2010 World Equestrian Games, alongside a couple of short formats here in the States. The percentage of horses who have successfully navigated Derek’s course clear on any particular date has ranged from 35 to 75% of starters; overall 60% of all horses who have attempted his courses have run clear.

With Lara de Leiderkerke-Meier’s withdrawal, that range means we’ll likely see approximately 21 horses run clear for sure. An additional 15 would run clear if we see more of an average Derek course in terms of difficulty, and if it turns out to be a bit softer than he expected, up to 46 total pairs would be entering stadium with no jump penalties. With this being the Olympics, you’ll probably see an odd mix; those looking for a completion may come home with a surprise clear having taken mostly long routes but adding a boatload of time penalties while team and individual medal hopes will rely on the best pairs to go out and have a crack, taking calculated risks that could result in a mistake they would otherwise never make.

In terms of time, only 10.7% of the pairs who attempt Derek’s courses have come home inside the time; with 45 jumping efforts over only 7 minutes and 45 seconds of courses, time is likely to be tougher to make than a typical long format event. If Derek’s pattern holds, we should see approximately 6 pairs come inside the time.

With no further ado, behold the performance of every team horse. All time penalties are for runs that are direct, with no pauses for stops at fences. 

Arinadtha Chavatanont & Boleybawn Prince (THA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 12.0

Oliver Townend & Ballaghmor Class (GBR)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 0.8

Doug Payne & Vandiver (USA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 4.0

Felix Vogg & Colero (SUI)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 3.2

Kazuma Tomoto & Vinci de la Vigne (JPN)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 1.6

Shane Rose & Virgil (AUS)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 7.2

Alex Hua Tian & Don Geniro (CHN)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 12.0

Joanna Pawlak & Fantastic Frieda (POL)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 9.6

Therese Viklund & Viscera (SWE)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 15.2

Christopher Six & Totem de Brecey (FRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 4.4

Vittoria Panizzon & Super Cillious (ITA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 0.4

Sam Watson & Flamenco (IRL)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 4.4

Jonelle Price & Grovine de Reve (NZL)

Predicted to Have Issues: No 

Predicted Time Penalties: 3.6

Julia Krajewski & Amande de B’Neville (GER)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 3.6

Marcelo Tosi & Glenfly (BRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 13.6

Weerapat Pitakanonda & Carnival March (THA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 10.8

Laura Collett & London 52 (GBR)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 0

Phillip Dutton & Z (USA)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 1.2

Melody Johner & Toubleu de Rueire (SUI)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 4.8

Toshiyuki Tanaka & Talma d’Allou (JPN)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 6.0

Kevin McNab & Don Quidam (AUS)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 6.8

Huadong Sun & Lady Chin V’T Moerven Z (CHN)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 26.0

Malgorzata Cybulska & Chenaro 2 (POL)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 10.0

Lousie Romeike & Cato 60 (SWE)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 6.0

Nicolas Touzaint & Absolut Gold (FRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 3.6

Susanna Bordone & Imperial van de Holtakker (ITA)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 5.6

Austin O’Connor & Colorado Blue (IRL)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 5.2

Jesse Campbell & Diachello (NZL)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 0

Sandra Auffarth & Viamant du Matz (GER)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 4.4

Rafael Mamprin Losano & Fuiloda G (BRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 16.4

Korntawat Samran & Bonero K (THA)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 10.8

Tom McEwen & Toledo de Kerser (GBR)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 6.8

Boyd Martin & Tsetserleg TSF (USA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 2.4

Robin Godel & Jet Set (SUI)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 6.4

Yoshiaki Oiwa & Calle 44 (JPN)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 6.8

Andrew Hoy & Vassily de Lassos (AUS)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 0

Yingfeng Bao & Flandia 2 (CHN)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 13.6

Jan Kaminski & Jard (POL)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 0

Ludwig Svennerstal & Balham Mist (SWE)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 0.4

Karim Florent Laghouag & Triton Fontaine (FRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 0

Arianna Schivo & Quefira de l’Ormeau (ITA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Probable No

Predicted Time Penalties: 13.6

Sarah Ennis & Woodcourt Garrison (IRL)

Predicted to Have Issues: Possible Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 2.0

Tim Price & Vitali (NZL)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 5.2

Michael Jung & Chipmunk FRH (GER)

Predicted to Have Issues: No

Predicted Time Penalties: 0

Carlos Parro & Goliath (BRA)

Predicted to Have Issues: Yes

Predicted Time Penalties: (Direct Round) 25.6

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