Lauren Kieffer and Veronica after jumping clear with one time penalty at Rolex. Photo by Jenni Autry.
With the Rolex Kentucky Three-Day Event presented by Land Rover serving as the first selection trials of the year for the U.S. Olympic team (15 selection trials were held last year), results from the competition will factor heavily into which horses and riders ultimately represent the stars and stripes in Rio de Janeiro.
The team is expected to be named no later than June 20, when the U.S. can submit up to 12 names before choosing the final team on July 18. We have six more selection trials to go: Badminton, Jersey Fresh, Saumur, Tattersalls, Bromont and Bramham. With Rolex behind us, we’re taking a look at the frontrunners we think made a strong case for inclusion on the 2016 U.S. Olympic team, as well as other hopefuls.
Before we jump in, let’s take a look at the big picture of how the U.S. performed at Rolex. While Michael Jung handily had the lead after dressage, the U.S. took seven of the spots in the top 10, and eight U.S. combinations scored 45.0 or better. In comparison, five U.S. pairs scored 45.0 or lower at Rolex last year, so the scores are continuing to improve.
While we likely would have seen a number of pairs make the time on Derek di Grazia’s cross country course had the skies not opened and dumped buckets of rain on Lexington, the reality is that the weather created tough going that saw every pair have time penalties. Stalwart combinations that usually have very few time penalties racked up far more than their average.
The weather should be far more dry in Rio, meaning the selectors may forgive higher-than-average cross country time penalties at Rolex. The cross country in Rio also is unlikely to be as influential, especially in comparison to what we saw at Rolex. As a result, the U.S. will likely place a higher emphasis on sending horses to Rio that can deliver the all-important dressage score of 45 or preferably well under, and then finish on or very close to it.
The tough going on cross country also meant we saw tired horses on Sunday, with just seven of the 54 pairs jumping clear show jumping rounds and rails tumbling down for many pairs that average clear or one-rail rounds. But it wasn’t just the U.S. combinations having rails at Rolex. Only one of the international riders jumped a clear round (Blyth Tait with Xanthus III) and the winners Michael Jung and fischerRocana FST had one rail.
Considering the grueling cross country conditions that then contributed to a very difficult day of show jumping, it’s also possible the selectors will forgive some of the rails we saw on Sunday for the pairs that typically average much better show jumping rounds. However, pairs that did manage to persevere and jump clear or one-rail rounds definitely set themselves apart.
Phillip Dutton and Fernhill Cubalawn. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
FRONTRUNNERS
Phillip Dutton: It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Phillip isn’t on the team, having represented the U.S. or his native Australia in every major championships for more than 25 years. His experience is invaluable from both a competitive and leadership role on a team, and it’s no surprise that he often fills the pathfinder role on cross country in order to report back valuable intel as the other riders finalize their game plans.
Not only did Phillip finish all three of his horses at Rolex, but they also stayed close to the top of the leaderboard through all four days of the competition. Mighty Nice, Fernhill Fugitive and Fernhill Cubalawn all sat inside the top 20 after dressage and inside the top 10 after impressive cross country piloting from Phillip.
While it was disappointing to see the horses have a collective eight rails in show jumping, all three still finished inside the top 15, with Mighty Nice in fourth, Fernhill Cubalawn in fifth and Fernhill Fugitive in 13th. Phillip will almost certainly double down on his show jumping training with Richard Picken.
Even with the Rolex rails factored into their averages, Fernhill Cubalawn is still averaging clear show jumping rounds in the last 12 months, with Fernhill Fugitive and Mighty Nice averaging one rail. Fernhill Cubalawn and Mighty Nice gave themselves a definite edge by keeping their rails at Rolex to one and two, respectively.
Following Rolex, Fernhill Cubalawn has likely emerged as Phillip’s Rio frontrunner, and he would definitely be a reliable choice for the team. Cuba consistently scores close to 45 and no higher than 48 in dressage, jumps clear cross country rounds with five or fewer time penalties, and averages clear show jumping rounds.
Remember that Phillip also has one more horse already qualified for Rio in Mr. Candyman, who is aiming for the Jersey Fresh CCI3* next week. Indian Mill and Z will also look to gain their Olympic qualifiers at Jersey Fresh. If both horses achieve that, Phillip will have six potential options for Rio.
Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Boyd Martin: While Shamwari 4, who finished as the highest placed U.S. horse in eighth at the 2014 World Equestrian Games, arguably came into Rolex as Boyd’s most promising prospect for Rio, it was his Kentucky-bred Thoroughbred mount Blackfoot Mystery that ultimately turned the most heads.
Blackfoot Mystery sat further down the leaderboard after dressage in 34th place, but he skyrocketed to 10th after an impressive cross country round at the very end of the day on Saturday. With the footing chewed up and rain still falling, this Thoroughbred proved he is all heart by going clear with one of the faster rounds of the day (3.6 time penalties) to move up to ninth.
Show jumping has been Blackfoot Mystery’s most challenging phase since Boyd took over the ride from Kelly Prather, but he has worked diligently with Richard Picken and remained adamant that he knows the horse is capable of clear rounds. The one rail over Richard Jeffery’s course shows that Blackfoot Mystery is improving, even after a grueling cross country.
Blackfoot Mystery is naturally talented on the flat, and Boyd also happens to be married to a dressage goddess in Silva Martin, who will be working with the horse in the lead up to Rio. Boyd and Blackfoot Mystery have averaged 48.6 in dressage in their four FEI starts together, but if you only look at their two FEI starts this spring, the average creeps up to 51.9; they scored 52.0 at Rolex.
That higher dressage score likely opens the door for Master Frisky and Crackerjack to slip through as potential Rio mounts for Boyd. Master Frisky unfortunately had to be withdrawn from Badminton after a flare-up of cellulitis kept him from making the trip to England, and he is now entered at Jersey Fresh. Crackerjack is at Badminton this weekend and has a real chance to shine for Team USA.
With Shamwari 4 pulling four rails at Rolex — a bummer after he looked fantastic in the first two phases — Blackfoot Mystery has likely emerged as Boyd’s Rio frontrunner for now. But we can’t count out Master Frisky and Crackerjack. (Boyd also has Welcome Shadow and Steady Eddie qualified for Rio.)
Lauren Kieffer and Veronica. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Lauren Kieffer and Veronica: Lauren Kieffer has all but stamped her ticket to Rio after clinching the USEF National CCI4* Championship with Veronica for the second time in as many years. They also delivered a personal best CCI4* dressage score of 43.9.
They’ve now gone a full calendar year without any blips on cross country, and after also completing Bramham, Aachen and Blenheim in good form last year and now showing they have maintained that form with a top placing at Rolex, it’s looking extremely promising that Lauren will be named to her first Olympic team.
If Veronica goes to Rio as Lauren’s team mount, it would make sense to have Meadowbrook’s Scarlett listed as the mare’s direct reserve. The Pan American Games team gold medalist did not make her first CCI4* start this year at Rolex, as Lauren instead opted to hold her at the CCI3* level for a bit longer with Rio in mind. We’ll next see Scarlett return to Jersey Fresh, where she finished second in the CCI3* last year.
Landmark’s Monte Carlo is still on the radar for Rio, though likely behind Scarlett in order of preference after pulling five rails in a bit of a green show jumping round at Rolex. But he was all class on cross country, where he finished clear with 2.8 time penalties to win the Land Rover Ride of the Day, and is definitely an exciting horse for the future.
Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
Maya Black and Doesn’t Play Fair: After working hard on his rideability last season, Maya Black emerged this year with a Doesn’t Play Fair that looked reminiscent of the dominant little powerhouse we saw in 2014, when he won Plantation Field CIC3* and finished third in the Galway Downs CCI3*. He hasn’t finished lower than third in his last three FEI starts, which includes a win at The Fork and a third-place finish at Rolex.
When looking at potential Rio horses that have the capability of hitting the very low 40s in dressage, Doesn’t Play Fair is near the top of the list (he scored 45.5 at Rolex), and with his cross country form looking fantastic this past weekend, it’s likely the selectors are considering him for a spot on the team or at the very least to fill the alternate slot.
Show jumping is the one question mark for this pair, and their one rail at Rolex is on par with their average in the phase. But with the horse’s rideability continuing to improve, it’s likely we’re going to see those clear rounds coming more consistently in the future.
Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen: Clark didn’t compete at Rolex and also isn’t competing at Badminton, but we’re eagerly awaiting to see how they perform in their next event, which will be the first leg of the Event Rider Master series at Chatsworth next weekend. A win or top placing there in the elite field, which has been limited to 40 of the top combinations in Europe, would show their form is on par with the stellar performances they gave us last year.
Clark and Glen will also likely run again this spring at either Houghton, which is May 26-29, or Hopetoun, which is June 16-19, right before the U.S. Olympic team will be named. He specifically has chosen to only run CIC3* events this season based off the quality of their performances last year, with a sixth-place finish at Luhmühlen and a win at Blenheim CCI3*.
While those results were fantastic, the selectors likely will want to see a top showing from Clark and Glen this spring before deciding to send them to Rio, with a dressage score in the 30s where they typically average; a clear and fast cross country; as well as a clear show jumping round, which they also average. There’s a lot riding on Chatsworth, which will be live streamed thanks to Event Rider Masters.
Buck Davidson and Petite Flower. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
OTHER HOPEFULS
Buck Davidson: Buck is an interesting situation in that he has a number of good horses in his string right now, but it’s unclear as to which one might be able to step up to the plate as his Rio mount. After Rolex, Petite Flower is likely his top prospect, having put her rocky cross country performances of years past behind her to deliver a gutsy clear and finish in ninth with two rails down, though she usually averages clear rounds.
The Apprentice is also an interesting candidate if he can pull out all the stops at Badminton this weekend. The horse hasn’t jumped a clear CCI show jumping round since Fair Hill in 2014, so the pressure is on for a better performance in that phase.
After skipping Rolex, Ballynoe Castle RM is not entered at Jersey Fresh CCI3*, which he won last year, and will likely go to Bromont instead. Unfortunately, he had a runout on cross country at The Fork, which could take him out of contention for Rio.
Copper Beach is also a possibility, though his 20 time penalties on cross country at Rolex exceed the totals of the other Rio hopefuls. He had one rail down and three time penalties in show jumping to finish 20th at Rolex in his four-star debut.
Sinead Halpin and Manoir de Carneville: Sinead Halpin posted a touching statement on her Facebook page following her 10th place finish at Rolex with her longtime partner Manoir de Carneville:
“Losing my Dad has made this year the toughest in my life. It has affected every aspect of my life including some of my performances. Some have quoted these moments as ‘blond moments’ but some things run deeper than the color of my hair. While we did not have the best preparation for Rolex, I am proud of the performance. It was no where near as effortless as some of our competitions have been in the past, but sometimes you just have to fight to get back in the game, so we fought.”
Sinead and Tate also have been fighting for a spot on the Olympic team for a long time, and they made a strong bid to be included as alternates for Rio.
Marilyn Little and RF Demeter: Marilyn Little and RF Demeter are already qualified for Rio, but after a light spring schedule and then falling at Rolex at fence 22, they will need to show they are on form in order to be considered for a spot on the team.
As for whether Demi will re-route to Bromont or another spring competition, Marilyn told EN her plans are still up in the air: “I will see how she feels next week when she comes back in (from the field) and then make some decisions with her owners.”
Colleen Rutledge and Covert Rights: After a stellar spring season with top finishes at Carolina International and The Fork, Colleen’s fans were disappointed to have Covert Rights withdrawn the day before the first horse inspection at Rolex due to him not being “100 percent comfortable.” His Rio chances remain up in the air after withdrawing from Rolex.
Lynn Symansky and Donner: Lynn had a bummer of a dressage test when Donner spooked at the applause as he was coming into the ring and got his tongue over the bit, which led to the highest CCI4* score of his career. They had one of the fastest cross country rounds of the day (2.8 time penalties) and then two rails down as they show jumped in heavy rain on Sunday. They are still strong candidates to be included as alternates.
Elisa Wallace and Simply Priceless: Fans of Elisa and her speedy OTTB Simply Priceless were thrilled to see her rise to the occasion once again, delivering his best CCI4* dressage score on 49.8, coming home clear and fast on cross country with 6.8 time penalties, and then significantly improving on their show jumping round from last year with only one rail to finish eighth. We can definitely see them on the alternate list.
Allie Knowles and Sound Prospect: We’re thrilled for Allie to have finally checked the Rolex box on her growing list of career achievements, and she could be considered as an alternate for Rio based off that performance. This pair has quietly racked up top placings in the company of key Rio contenders. They’re capable of hitting the 40s in dressage and almost always jump clear show jumping rounds. They added 16 time penalties and one rail to their dressage score at Rolex to finish 16th.
Hannah Sue Burnett and Harbour Pilot. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.
OUT OF CONTENTION
Hannah Sue Burnett and Harbour Pilot: It’s gutting that after Hannah and Harbour Pilot delivered such a fantastic performance at Rolex, their bid for Rio has come to an end due to the 11 frangible penalties they received at fence 3 on cross country. Olympic selection procedures state that a qualifying score cannot have any jumping penalties on cross country.
While Hannah could have chosen to go on to the final U.S. selection trial at Bromont to obtain their qualifier, she confirmed to EN that Harbour Pilot will enjoy a well-deserved rest instead: “I can’t take him to Bromont in good conscience. He did everything right at Rolex and shouldn’t be punished by having to run again because of my ambitions. He’s already an Olympic gold to me.”
It’s a heartbreaking end to their comeback following Harbour Pilot’s injury at Burghley in 2014, and we’ll be cheering for them as they press on for the remainder of the season. Kudos to you, Hannah, for putting your horse first.
Allison Springer and Arthur: As mentioned above, an Olympic qualifying score must have zero jumping penalties. Allison and Arthur, who sat in second place after dressage at Rolex, picked up a runout at the final element of the coffin. Since they went on to complete the course, it’s unlikely we’ll see them re-routing elsewhere for a qualifying score.
Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.
NOT QUALIFIED
Tiana Coudray and Ringwood Magister: Tiana retired Ringwood Magister on course after a refusal at 7a, the jump in to the second water complex. They could still re-route elsewhere in search of a qualifying score.
Liz Halliday-Sharp and Fernhill By Night: After sitting in fourth place after dressage at Rolex, Liz withdrew “Blackie” as planned since he recently had stitches removed from his leg. He still needs a qualifying score for Rio, but Liz told EN she is currently thinking she will target only CIC3* events this spring and summer with a goal of aiming for Pau in the fall.
Kim Severson and Fernhill Fearless: Kim confirmed to EN that she is re-routing to Jersey Fresh after retiring on course at Rolex at the coffin.
Remaining U.S. Olympic Selection Trials: Badminton (GBR) CCI4*; May 4-8 Jersey Fresh (USA) CCI3*, May 11-15; Saumur (FRA) CCI3*, May 19-22; Tattersalls (IRE) CCI3*, May 26-29; Bromont (CAN) CCI3*, June 9-12; Bramham (GBR) CCI3*, June 9-12 (Note that Luhmühlen is not listed as a selection trial)
Thank you to EN’s data analyst Maggie Deatrick for providing statistics for this article. Stay tuned to EN for the next round of Maggie’s Rio Olympic Power Rankings.
Who would you put on the U.S. team if you had to pick today? Let us know in the comments below.
