It’s the final day of the Rio Olympics for the eventing competition and I think we’re all a bit emotionally drained. I’ve experienced joy, anger, sadness, fear, despair and hope in rapid succession over the past few days and the fact that I completely skipped lunch yesterday is a huge testament to how many times my stomach was flipping during the cross-country.

Needless to say, it ain’t over ’till it’s over, and show jumping is every bit as difficult as cross country in its own way. We’ll be watching nervous riders guiding tired horses over a set of jumps designed by Brazilian show jumping designer Guilherme Jorge, who after several years of working as assistant Olympic course designer is making his debut at the top of the masthead. A simple mistake could make or break a bid for a podium position and at the critical moments you’ll be able to hear a pin drop in the stadium. The top 25 at the end of the stadium competition will move on to a second jumping round to determine individual medals.

The riders listed below are the best 15 show jumpers remaining in the field, ranked first by jump penalties and then by speed, using rounds from the Olympic qualifying period beginning on January 1, 2015. For full information on each of the pairs, check out Jenni’s Ultimate Guide.

Clarke Johnstone and Balmoral Sensation. Photo courtesy of Julie Wilson/FEI.

Clarke Johnstone (NZL) and Balmoral Sensation: In five rounds in the past 18 months, this pair is absolutely perfect, no rails and no time penalties. Three of the five rounds were at CCI events, and two of them were four-stars. Already inside the top 10, this pair is bound to rise up in the rankings both for the team and the individual round.

Current Place: 7th (tied)

Current Score: 51.3

Kitty King and Ceylor LAN. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

Kitty King (GBR) and Ceylor L A N: This long legged bay from Britain has an extremely impressive show jumping record, with absolutely no rails in eight rounds in the Olympic qualifying period. Their only flaw was a single time penalty in their last outing at Bramham. Three of those eight rounds came after the cross country phase, including two CCI3*. Placed well outside the top 25, she’ll need some help from others to move up into the individual round but can still use Ceylor L A N’s jumping prowess to help the team score.

Current Place: 34th

Current Score:  100.4

Qing du Briot ENE HN and Colonel Thibault Vallette. Photo by Samantha Clark.

Thibaut Valette (FRA) and Qing du Briot ENE HN:  These two are another pair who can boast they have yet to have a rail in the past two calendar years, although they only have four rounds under their belt in that time period. A single time penalty in the Chatsworth CIC3* mars their flawless record, but three of the four rounds were performed with show jumping last, two of which were CCI3*. Two rounds of jumping will work in this pair’s favor today.

Current Place: 18th

Current Score: 65.4

William Fox-Pitt and Chilli Morning. Photo by Jenni Autry.

William Fox-Pitt (GBR) and Chilli Morning: If William and his decorated stallion had maintained their pole position, they’d be sleeping quite comfortably tonight given their clear record (with only one time penalty) in three rounds since the beginning of 2015. Since one of those rounds helped them win Badminton, they’d be comfortable with the idea of a full height, double round of show jumping. As it is, they’ll likely climb into the top 15 after two rounds of jumping despite their cross country stop.

Current Place: 22nd

Current Score: 67.4

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy The Biz. FEI photo

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy the Biz: Unlike his teammate, Billy the Biz was competed fairly consistently throughout the Olympic qualifying period, accumulating an impressive one rail in 10 rounds, along with twice incurring a single time penalty. Three of those rounds featured show jumping last and two were CCI3*, proving that this horse has something left in the tank on the last day. That talent should help Pippa climb into the individual final later today.

Current Place: 28th

Current Score: 84.3

Ingrid Klimke and Horseware Hale Bob. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

Ingrid Klimke (GER) and Horseware Hale Bob:  Even with a stop, these two are still inside the top 20, meaning they can use their jumping prowess for both team and individual benefit. This pair incurred their first rail in seven tries in their last outing at Aachen and have demonstrated that the CCI format is no problem with double clear rounds at both the CCI4* and CCI3* levels.

Current Place: 18th

Current Score: 65.5

Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sandra Auffarth (GER) and Opgun Louvo: Opgun Louvo last had a rail in his first round of 2015 and hasn’t made an error since in another five courses. Only one of those rounds was a CCI3* but two other rounds were in the cross-country first format. They’ll be another to make the individual round and benefit from their jumping ability.

Current Place: 20th (Tied)

Current Score: 66.4

Mark Kyle and Jemilla. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Mark Kyle (IRE) and Jemilla: With only one rail in five rounds in the Olympic qualifying period, Jemilla’s jumping prowess should help Ireland, although it’s unlikely that these two will progress to the individual round.

Current Place: 35th

Current Score: 101.2

Sam Griffiths and Paulank Brockagh. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sam Griffiths (AUS) and Paulank Brockagh: Yet another one-rail wonder, this pair last had a rail in May of 2015, although he did incur two time penalties this spring. Of the five rounds, three were at the CCI4* level, proving the height should be no challenge for this mare.

Current Place: 9th

Current Score: 53.1

Jonty Evans with Cooleys Rorkes Drift. Photo by Lorraine O’Sullivan, courtesy of Tattersalls International H.T.

Jonty Evans (IRE) and Cooley Rorkes Drift: Jonty Evans has had an absolutely cracking weekend and with Cooley Rorkes Drift’s talent on the final day, it’s probably going to get better. With only twice incurring a rail in a prolific 10 rounds in the past 18 months, along with a handful of time penalties here or there, two solid rounds could move this pair even further up the standings.

Current Place: 16th

Current Score: 64.6

Michael Jung and La Biosthetique Sam FBW. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

Michael Jung (GER) and La Biosthetique Sam: Despite a couple of notorious rails (like the one that lost him Badminton in 2013 and the two rails that lost him Rolex in 2015), this horse has actually been quite a careful jumper throughout his career, especially at the CCI4* level. In eight CCI4* events (counting the London Games), he’s jumped double clear six times. Somehow, the three rails he has accumulated have earned him a reputation as a less-than-careful jumper, when the reverse is actually true. Oh, and those two rails at Rolex were the only two rails he’s had in the past 18 months over seven rounds, four of which were at the four-star level.

Current Place: 2nd

Current Score: 40.9

Carlos Lobos Munoz (CHI) and Ranco: Who didn’t love watching this pair jumping around steadily yesterday? This jumping bean of a horse helped keep the Chile individual hopes alive. Although they only have one rail recently, they’ve only had three rounds at this level thus far, and accumulated seven time penalties in their last outing. A clear round could edge them into the final individual round.

Current Place: 3oth

Current Score: 92.1

Astier Nicolas and Piaf De B’Neville. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Astier Nicolas (FRA) and Piaf de B’Neville: Fairly careful but not perfect, Piaf de B’Neville has twice incurred a single rail in six rounds over the Olympic qualifying period. Notably, these two jumped clear at both CCIs they attempted in the time period. With a stalking position of third place, a surprise win isn’t out of the question.

Current Place: 3rd

Current Score: 42.0

Jonelle Price and Faerie Dianamo. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Jonelle Price (NZL) and Faerie Dianimo:  This pair had an absolutely perfect show jumping record in the past 18 months right up until their final prep event at Aachen, where they incurred two rails. They’ll be looking to re-instate their habit of double clears to not only help their team but their individual placing.

Current Place: 13th

Current Score: 57.5

Gemma Tattersall and Quicklook V. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Gemma Tattersall (GBR) and Quicklook V: These two have accumulated a single rail in the stadium only three times out of nine rounds in the past 18 months. While they are too far down the standings to make the individual round, they are a pair to keep an eye on to put in the first clear round of the day.

Current Place:  43rd

Current Score: 136.8

The team show jumping round begins at 9 a.m. Follow along with us via our live updates, social media and the live stream! Click here for the show jumping order of go.

#Rio2016: Website, Schedule, Individual Scores, Team Scores, EN’s Ultimate Guide to Rio, How to Watch Live, EN’s Coverage, Twitter, Instagram

Today we begin the real meat of the sport, cross country day! The cross country consists of 33 numbered obstacles (45 total jumping efforts) across 5,840 meters of the Deodoro complex. The horses will have to cover the distance under the optimum time of 10 minutes, 15 seconds, or they will incur time penalties, 0.4 added to their score for each second they are over. For a full preview of the course, check out our course preview here. For full information on each of the pairs, check out Jenni’s Ultimate Guide.

Pierre Michelet from France is the course designer for Rio. Prolific particularly in Europe, Michelet most often designs courses in France, for Fontainebleau, Saumur and Pau, and is also known for his testing World Equestrian Games course in Caen, France in 2014.

The riders will be facing a typical Pierre Michelet course, full of angles, skinnies and corners, which has already been described as a proper four-star course by multiple riders. Countries who have sent less experienced three-star horses will have their work cut out for them today.

The riders listed below are the quickest 20 in the competition, ranked from quickest to slowest, using clear runs over the Olympic qualifying period. Although almost all of the horses in the Olympic field tend towards clear rounds more often than not, there will be plenty of stops tomorrow to shake things up, including some of those listed below. The riders below stand to make up the largest ground in the standings if they run clear.

#Rio2016: Website, Schedule, Cross Country Ride Times, Individual Scores, Team Scores, EN’s Ultimate Guide to Rio, How to Watch Live, EN’s Coverage, Twitter, Instagram

Ingrid Klimke and Horseware Hale Bob OLD. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

Ingrid Klimke (GER) and Horseware Hale Bob: This pair hasn’t had a single cross country penalty in the entire Olympic qualifying period, and with five of their seven runs completed inside the optimum time, they also share the lowest average of time penalties of anyone in the competition with Karin Donckers.

Their slowest time came when they were 22 seconds over the time at a rain-soaked, muddy European Championship track at Blair Castle last fall, where they were still faster than the majority of the competitors who finished. While they may not necessarily be the fastest time of the day, there’s a good chance they’ll still be on their dressage score by tonight.

Ride Time: 1:35 p.m. EST

Karin Donckers and Fletcha Van’t Verahof. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Karin Donckers (BEL) and Fletcha van’t Verahof: A stop isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility for this pair, as demonstrated by a bit of a rough patch they had last summer and fall at Aachen and the European Championships. However, clear runs are the norm for these two and when they are clear, they are also fast. In their five clear runs, Karin and Fletcha van’t Verahof equal Ingrid Klimke’s time penalty average.

Ride Time: 12:45 p.m. EST

Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sandra Auffarth (GER) and Opgun Louvo: These two aren’t the reigning World Equestrian Champions for nothing, and although Opgun Louvo has been sparsely run in the past two years, he’s made his runs count. In four cross country runs, he completed three of them double clear, only accumulating time at the aforementioned muddy European Championships. This horse is a good bet to go clear and under the time.

Ride Time: 9:36 a.m. EST

Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen at Bramham. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

Clark Montgomery (USA) and Loughan Glen: This big gelding may not strike you as one of the quickest horses in the field, but he’s made a mark in the past two years, picking up run after run that are either double clear or within five seconds of optimum time. His slowest time in the Olympic qualifying period came at Chatsworth, a notoriously difficult venue to make time, and where he was still faster than a large portion of the competition. This is a pair who have a lot of practice in pushing the pace.

Ride Time: 11:02 a.m. EST

Michael Jung and La Biosthetique Sam. Photo by Shannon Brinkman with assistance from Leslie Wylie.

Michael Jung (GER) and La Biosthetique Sam: Michael Jung is another who generally pushes his partner Sam close to the time every time, but is usually a few seconds over. Having said that, this pair is well known for making the time on CCI4* courses and have accumulated a total of three seconds over the optimum time in all of the seven four-star runs they have. They’ll be under or very, very close to the optimum time.

Ride Time: 10:53 a.m. EST

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy The Biz. FEI photo

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy the Biz: This horse hasn’t had the cleanest record, running into some trouble at multiple events last fall. Still, they more often run clear than not, and have yet to have any trouble in 2016. When they run clear, these two are another pair who generally come in within 10 seconds or less of the optimum time. However, this will be the first time that the horse has attempted a four-star cross country, although Pippa is an experienced four-star competitor.

Ride Time: 12:05 p.m. EST

Pietro Roman and Barraduff. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Pietro Roman (ITA) and Barraduff: These two earned their position on the Italian team due to a strong cross country record over the past two years. Although they have yet to run a four-star, they have a strong and extensive three-star record, including a double clear run over Pierre Michelet’s Saumur course in 2014. These two have only once made the optimum in the Olympic qualifying period, but are usually quite close to it.

Ride Time: 11:51 a.m. EST

Astier Nicolas and Piaf de B’Neville. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Astier Nicolas (FRA) and Piaf de B’Neville: Astier and Piaf de B’Neville have really burst into the limelight in the past 12 months, using double clear runs over the Pierre Michelet courses at Saumur and Pau last year to catapult themselves into second and first at those events, respectively. While those are their only two double clear runs in the past 18 months, they are the two that matter, giving them valuable experience for the course ahead of them.

Ride Time: 9:05 a.m. EST

Pawel Spisak and Banderas. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Pawel Spisak (POL) and Banderas: Pawel and Banderas earned an individual slot in Rio thanks to their strong season in late 2015, where they strung together three double clear runs in a row. They haven’t quite managed the same form this year with a couple of stops peppering their record, but a recent slow but clear run at Strzegom may have helped them back on form. This will be their first attempt at a four-star course.

Ride Time: 12:50 p.m. EST

Shane Rose and CP Qualified. Photo courtesy of Stephen Mowbray Photography.

Shane Rose (AUS) and CP Qualified: Shane Rose and CP Qualified are based down under, boasting a strong cross country record in their native region by being within 10 seconds of optimum time in five of seven runs. Interestingly, they have yet to make optimum time since the Olympic qualifying period began, but with four-star experience and a propensity for pushing the pace, they’ll be a good bet to do the same here.

Ride Time: 1:12 p.m. EST

Jonelle Price and Faerie Dianamo. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Jonelle Price (NZL) and Faerie Dianimo: This mare is a dynamo on cross country, with a clean record and three of six runs during the Olympic qualifying period under the time. Last year this pair was either double clear or less than 10 seconds under the time but they’ve slowed a little this spring, racking up nearly 30 seconds worth of time penalties at Chatsworth. They’ll be pushing the pace this weekend though, so a double clear wouldn’t be a surprise.

Ride Time: 1:30 p.m. EST

Felix Vogg and Onfire. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Felix Vogg (SUI) and Onfire: This Swiss pair do have the occasional stop on their record, including the last time out at the Luhmühlen CIC3*. They began 2015 with a string of double clear runs but have lost a bit of steam, finishing all of their 2016 runs with around thirty seconds of time penalties. Onfire was Felix Vogg’s mount for the World Equestrian Games, so as a pair they have experience over Pierre Michelet’s championship level courses.

Ride Time: 11:11 a.m. EST

Elmo Jankari and Duchess Desire (FIN). Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Elmo Jankari (FIN) and Duchess Desiree: These two are extremely strong at the three-star level, with very few blips across the board. In clear runs, they generally run 10 seconds or less over optimum time, so a good run will mean a big move up the leaderboard. Elmo has retired Duchess Desiree in both of their four-star attempts, once at the 2014 WEG and once at Luhmühlen in 2015.

Ride Time: 11:24 a.m. EST

Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Boyd Martin (USA) and Blackfoot Mystery: Up until Great Meadow last month, this pair had a squeaky clean record, including a solid run at Red’s first four-star at Rolex Kentucky. Although they’ve only made the time once, they are generally within 20 seconds of the optimum time. Boyd will have his work cut out for him today, but a clear round is more probable than not.

Ride Time: 9:45 a.m. EST

Clarke Johnstone and Balmoral Sensation. Photo courtesy of Julie Wilson / FEI.

Clarke Johnstone (NZL) and Balmoral Sensation: Another pair based outside of Europe, this New Zealand pair proved they aren’t just a regional wonder by making the trek to Badminton this spring and placing an emphatic fifth. With a flawless cross country record over the past 18 months, Balmoral Sensation is always within 30 seconds and more often within 15 seconds of the optimum time.

Ride Time: 12:14 p.m. EST

Mark Todd and Leonidas II. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Mark Todd (NZL) and Leonidas II: The indomitable Mark Todd, back for another chance at Olympic glory, is as consistent as they come — normally. Mark and Leonidas had an entirely clean record at the three- and four-star levels through the Olympic qualifying period right up until their last prep event at Barbury Castle, where they shockingly had a stop and struggled in the stadium as well. Don’t expect that mistake to happen again. Although they’ve only made time in two of their seven clean runs, they are always within 30 seconds of the optimum rime.

Ride Time: 10:48 a.m. EST

Karim Florent Laghouag and Entebbe De Hus. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Karim Florent Laghouag (FRA) and Entebbe de Hus: The only flaw in this horse’s record over the Olympic qualifying period came at the European Championship last fall, which Karim then redeemed by posting a fast and clear round over Pierre Michelet’s course at Pau. Although lightly competed this spring, this pair is generally within 10 seconds of the optimum time.

Ride Time: 10:17 a.m. EST

Tim Lips and Bayro. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Tim Lips (NED) and Bayro: This experienced pair have twice tackled Pierre Michelet’s Fontainebleau CIC3* course in the past two years, posting clear but slow rounds. In their six other runs, they posted five clear rounds within 10 seconds of the optimum time, only stumbling slightly at Aachen last summer. Expect a swift round from Bayro.

Ride Time: 10:44 a.m. EST

Lauren Kieffer and Veronica. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Lauren Kieffer (USA) and Veronica: Although they haven’t made time in the past two years, their competition record is extremely competitive, running often within 10 seconds of the optimum time and always within 30 seconds. These two have the potential to move way up the standings after the second phase, and their experience over Pierre Michelet’s course at Pau in 2014 will serve them well.

Ride Time: 12:27 p.m. EST

Padraig McCarthy and Simon Porloe. Photo by Prime Photography/Tattersalls.

Padraig McCarthy (IRL) and Simon Porloe: Possibly the most unique combination in the entire competition, Padraig McCarthy has yet to run a four-star but has become an absolute star for Ireland since he started eventing in 2013, while his mount Simon Porloe has extensive four-star experience under Padraig’s wife Lucy Weigersma.

These two have been almost perfect together in the past 18 months, with only an unfortunate rider fall at the European Championships marring their record. Although they have posted double clears early on in 2015, they’ve been slower as of late, generally finishing within 15 seconds of the optimum time.

Ride Time: 9:09 a.m. E.S.T

Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice. Photo by Leslie Threlkeld.

Phillip Dutton (USA) and Mighty Nice: Although this pair has made the optimum time once in their six runs in the past 18 months, they more closely trend to 25 seconds or less over the optimum. Extremely strong across the country, Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice haven’t had a blip on their record since the spring of 2013. A solid finish from this pair could move them well up the leaderboard this week.

Ride Time: 1:44 p.m. EST

Welcome back to dressage for Rio! We’re now entering the second day of competition, which means another full day of fancy prancing. Today is when we’ll see the majority of the heavy hitters, as the anchors of the four-member teams ride last in the order.

Although we saw quite a few phenomenal horses yesterday (and you can view the results here), there’s a higher volume of must-watch tests today. If you aren’t sure where you can watch, check EN’s guide to How to Watch Eventing at the 2016 Olympic Games.

The competitors will be performing the OG 4* Test B – Short Version, which really means that they are performing the 2009 FEI 4*-B test, but with a few movements edited out to create a shorter test. The 2009 FEI 4*-B test is always used for four-star events held in even-numbered years, which means it was also used for the 2010 and 2014 WEG. Therefore, the more experienced horses will likely be familiar with the test while younger three-star horses will be doing it for the first time.

The first major differences between the OG 4* Test B and the 2009 FEI 4*-B test is the omission of a half-pirouette in the walk at C, which creates a change of rein in the 4*-B test. In the OG test, the extended trot then must go down the long side from H to K instead of across the diagonal HXE.

The next omission occurs in the walk work, where instead of turning to the right at M, performing a halt and rein-back at G, and then crossing the diagonal from H to B, the competitor simply performs the extended walk from C to M to E. Since once again you are on the opposite rein, the canter work is performed first to the left and then to the right, a mirror image of the original test.

Judging the competitors will be Marilyn Payne of the United States, who presides over the ground jury. Andrew Bennie of New Zealand and Sandy Phillips of Great Britain will be joining her as members of the ground jury. All three judges have been in high demand throughout the past two years, and many riders have made every effort to attend competitions whose ground juries consisted of one or more of these judges.

SUNDAY, MORNING SESSION

Col Thibaut Vallette and Qing Du Briot. Photo by Samantha Clark.

Thibaut Valette (FRA) and Qing Briot: These two really excelled over the Olympic qualifying period, stepping up their game on the flat to average a 39.48 over four tests. Their personal best of 35.2 was recorded at Fontainebleau early in 2015, and they’ve been scoring at a similar level ever since.

Aiming for: Top five

Ride Time: 9:24 a.m. EST

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy The Biz at Houghton Hall. FEI photo.

Pippa Funnell (GBR) and Billy the Biz: This British pair has certainly been busy since 2015, executing 12 three-star tests for an average of 41.26. Although this horse has laid it down with a score of 34.7, that mark came more than a year ago at the 2015 Bramham CIC3*. More recently they’ve been hovering closer to their overall average.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 10:20 a.m. EST

Clarke Johnstone and Balmoral Sensation. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Clarke Johnstone (NZL) and Balmoral Sensation: Over the past two calendar years, this New Zealand pair averaged a 41.10, but that’s skewed a bit by an outlier of 50.1 at the Adelaide CCI4* last fall. If you drop that out, their average drops into the 30s, which is much more characteristic of what they consistently lay down.

This pair’s lowest score is a 35.5 obtained at the Hastings CIC3* this spring, demonstrating that this horse truly is on form. Having said that, Balmoral Sensation has yet to break into the 30s on a four-star test in two attempts.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 10:36 a.m. EST

Julia Krajewski and Samourai du Thot. Photo by Lutz Kaiser/buschreiter.de.

Julia Krajewski (GER) and Samourai du Thot: This is the youngest pair on the German team, but despite that they’ve demonstrated they can shine despite the depth in their country. With an average of 39.83 over the Olympic qualifying period in eight tests, they’ve demonstrated consistency. Samourai du Thot has yet to score above 40 this year, and hasn’t been far off his personal best of 34.2, scored at the 2015 Wiesbaden CIC3*.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 10:44 a.m. EST

Sara Algotsson Ostholt and Reality 39. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Sara Algotsson-Ostholt (SWE) and Reality 39: Sara and Reality 39 have averaged a 41.63 over seven tests in the Olympic qualifying period, putting them solidly in the running. At the 2013 Marbach CIC3*, they scored a personal best of 32.4 but have only occasionally broken into the 30s in recent years.

Aiming for: Top 25

Ride Time: 10:52 a.m. EST

Alex Hua Tian and Don Geniro. Photo by Jenni Autry.

SUNDAY, AFTERNOON SESSION

Alex Hua Tian (CHN) and Don Geniro: The British-based Chinese eventer got a taste of the Olympics when he competed at Beijing at the age of 18, and he’s back with a strongly competitive horse in Don Geniro.

2This gelding has averaged a 42.19 in eight tests since the Olympics qualifying period began. His best score came at his first CIC3* in 2015 at Barbury Castle where these two laid down a 37.3. Although they haven’t cracked into the 30s yet this year, they have been consistently putting in low 40s tests.

Aiming for: Top 25

Ride Time: 12:30 p.m. EST

Karin Donckers and Fletcha van’t Verahof. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Karin Donckers (BEL) and Fletcha van’t Verahof: Karin and Fletcha van’t Verahof have averaged a 41.18 over the past two years, executing eight tests at the three-star level. This pair represented Belgium in the 2014 World Equestrian Games at what is their only four-star start, scoring a 42.3, but have more recently put down a personal best of 36.5 this spring at the Marbach CIC3*.

Aiming for: Top 25

Ride Time: 12:38 p.m. EST

Mathieu Lemoine and Bart L. Photo courtesy of Saumur

Matthieu Lemoine (FRA) and Bart L: Despite having stepped up to the three-star level in late 2014, this horse has only five three-star runs under his belt and has yet to try a four-star. Still, he and Matthieu have become a strong contender for the French, averaging a 40.05 in four tests over the Olympic qualifying period and inching downwards with every test. Their personal best score came this spring in the Event Rider Masters division at the Chatsworth CIC3*, laying down a 38.9.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 1:02 p.m. EST

Stefano Brecciaroli and Apollo VD Wendi Kurt Hoeve. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Stefano Brecciaroli (ITA) and Apollo VD Wendi Kurt Hoeve: In the Olympic qualifying period, Stefano and Apollo have averaged a 40.68 dressage score over five tests, all at the three-star level. Their most recent score was a 45.1 at Strzegom CICO3*, but don’t let that fool you; their lowest score to date is a 30.4 at the 2012 Montelibretti CICO3*, and they have scored in the 30s at every four-star test they’ve been to. That includes Badminton, the London Olympic Games and the 2010 World Equestrian Games.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 1:18 p.m. EST

Shane Rose and CP Qualified. Photo by Julie Wilson/FEI.

Shane Rose (AUS) and CP Qualified: These two have averaged 39.53 in eight tests, primarily performed down under in Australia. Their lowest mark came in the Taupo CCI3* in May of 2015, laying down a test of 35.0 for the win. CP Qualified breaks into the 30s more often than not, with a string of high-30s scores already this spring.

Aiming for: Top five

Ride Time: 1:26 p.m. EST

Kitty King and Ceylor L A N. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

Kitty King (GBR) and Ceylor LAN: A horse whose entire three-star career falls within the Olympic qualifying period, Ceylor LAN has a strong average of 43.95 over eight events. On a good day though, this horse could be near the top, as they recently bested their average by more than 10 points, laying down a personal best of 32.9 at the Event Rider Masters division of the Chatsworth CIC3*.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 1:58 p.m. EST

Jonelle Price and Faerie Dianimo. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

Jonelle Price (NZL) and Faerie Dianimo: This fire cracker of a mare can lay down as strong a test as any, as demonstrated by a personal best of 32.8 at the Luhmühlen CCI4* in 2015. Over the Olympic qualifying period, she and Jonelle average a 41.13 over seven tests but generally bounce between mid-30s or mid-40s. Her latest score was a 35.3 in Aachen, demonstrating she may be right on form.

Aiming for: Top five

Ride Time: 2:14 p.m. EST

Ingrid Klimke and Horseware Hale Bob. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Ingrid Klimke (GER) and Horseware Hale Bob OLD: These two have been on fire the past two years, laying down stellar dressage scores one after another through seven tests and finishing on that score more often than not. With an average score of 37.54 in the Olympic qualifying period, they’ll be tough to beat in the first phase.

Their personal best at these levels came just a couple months ago at the May Wiesbaden CIC3*, where they threw down an astonishing 27.3. More typically, they score in the mid-30s or very low 40s.

Aiming for: Top three

Ride Time: 2:22 p.m. EST

Marcio Calvalho Jorge and Lissy Mac Wayer. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Marcio Carvalho Jorge (BRA) and Lissy Mac Wayer: Brazilians will be excited to cheer for Marcio and his mare Lizzy Mac Wayer, who average a solid 41.30 over six tests in the past two years. This mare usually scores in the 40s but is coming off a personal best score of 32.5 at the Event Rider Masters division at the Barbury Castle CIC3* last month.

Aiming for: Top 10

Ride Time: 2:46 p.m. EST

Top left and bottom right: Libby Law Photography. Top right: Shannon Brinkman. Bottom left: Jenni Autry.

Handicapping individuals is difficult enough, but the team dynamic including a dropped score makes predicting the outcome of the 2016 Olympic Games exponentially more difficult.

To give you a good view of the numerical possibilities of each team, I’ve provided information on the Best Score a team could possibly attain, and an Average Score that represents a typical performance from each competitor in each phase. For an overall review of every competitor, Jenni has provided us with an Ultimate Guide to Eventing that include detailed information for all pairs, both team and individuals.

The team’s Best Score is calculated first using a horse and rider’s personal best score in each individual phase to calculate a best possible finishing score for each combination. The personal best score for a phase represents what we know the pair can physically accomplish and theoretically is at the limits of their ability.

While it’s certainly possible that we will see horses put forth new personal bests this weekend, it’s much more common for these athletes to perform somewhere on the spectrum from their known best to their known lowest score.

By summing the personal bests for each phase (and not simply using their best recorded finishing score), we can theoretically determine the lowest finishing score a pair could attain. Because eventing essentially consists of three different equestrian disciplines, each performance is discrete and generally does not affect the next performance, barring fatigue in the final show jumping phase.

Therefore, it’s best to assume that a horse and rider could equal their best on each day of competition, even if they have never strung three personal bests together in one show.

Once the personal best final scores for each rider are determined, the team’s Best Score is determined by summing the three lowest scores of the four team members.

Similarly, the team Average Scores are calculated in the same manner, determining an average for each phase and summing them for each rider, then dropping the worst score of the four.

Only scores from the Olympic qualifying period beginning on January 1, 2015 onwards were used for these predictions, to ascertain current form rather than past performance.

ESTABLISHED WORLD-BEATERS

Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo. Photo by Jenni Autry.

 GERMANY 

Team: Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo, Michael Jung and La Biosthetique Sam, Ingrid Klimke and Horseware Hale Bob, Julia Krajewski and Samourai du Thot

Members: If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that Germany is the heavy favorite to win team gold. If you haven’t been paying attention, I’ll help you out: Germany is the heavy favorite to win team gold. The depth in their country right now is beyond belief, and the reality is that they’ll likely win by a large margin unless something goes drastically wrong.

Their team reads like a Who’s Who of eventing. Sandra Auffarth and Opgun Louvo won individual Olympic bronze in London and individual WEG gold in Normandy. Michael Jung and La Biosthetique Sam were the 2010 individual gold winners at WEG in Kentucky and the 2012 Olympic individual champions along with multiple four-star wins.

Ingrid Klimke and Horseware Hale Bob haven’t finished worse than fifth at a competition since 2014 including a win at 2014 Pau and a second at 2015 Badminton. Julia Krajewski and Samourai du Thot, Germany’s rising stars, haven’t had a rail or a dressage score over 40 all year, picking up a third at Luhmühlen in their first four-star.

Competing for: Gold

Jonelle Price and Faerie Dianimo at Aachen 2015. Photo by Jenni Autry.

 NEW ZEALAND 

Members: Clarke Johnstone and Balmoral Sensation, Tim Price and Ringwood Sky Boy, Jonelle Price and Faerie Dianimo, Mark Todd and Leonidas II

Analysis: The only team with a hope and a prayer of catching Germany is the New Zealand team, who would probably need Germany to lose one of their top three scores to compete for the gold. The New Zealand team lacks the eye-catching individual hardware of the Germans, but every single pair on this team has multiple top-five finishes at the four-star level. All of the horses are 13 or younger, meaning that New Zealand will have some serious horseflesh to contend through the next Olympic cycle.

Competing for: Silver

Astier Nicolas and Piaf De B’Neville at Pau in 2015. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

 FRANCE 

Members: Karim Florent Laghouag and Entebbe de Hus, Mathieu Lemoine and Bart L, Astier Nicolas and Piaf De B’Neville, and Thibaut Valette and Qing du Briot

Analysis: France has kept its talented team from the European Championships almost completely intact, adding only Astier Nicolas and Piaf De B’Neville after an impressive win at both Pau last fall and Chatsworth this spring. Two pairs have top five four-star finishes, and the other two have multiple strong finishes at the CCI3* level.

France has the smallest difference between their personal best and average team scores, which means they are the team who most consistently performs closest to their best in every phase, every time. They’ll be a strong contender for a podium finish here in Rio, and with every horse on the team 13 or younger, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with for at least the next four years.

Competing for: Silver

SERIOUS CONTENDERS

Shane Rose and CP Qualified at Adelaide in 2015. Photo by Stephen Mowbray Photography.

  AUSTRALIA 

Members: Chris Burton and Santano II, Sam Griffiths and Paulank Brockagh, Shane Rose and CP Qualified, and Stuart Tinney and Pluto Mio

Analysis: Australia has one of the two largest upsides between their averages and their personal bests amongst the top tier of teams. Three of the four horses are quite experienced, with multiple four-star completions under their best, including an Adelaide winner (CP Qualified) and Badminton winner (Paulank Brockagh).

This team has both the oldest and one of the youngest horses in the competition. Pluto Mio, 18 years young, is an incredibly experienced four-star horse who started consistently scoring at or below forty this spring, while Santano II just stepped up to the three-star level this spring at 9 years old and earned himself a spot on the team with a win over the Pierre Michelet-designed Saumur CCI3* course.

Competing for: Podium finish

Kitty King and Ceylor LAN at Chatsworth this May. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

 GREAT BRITAIN 

Members: Willam Fox-Pitt and Chilli Morning, Pippa Funnell and Billy the Biz, Kitty King and Ceylor L A N, and Gemma Tattersall and Quicklook V

Analysis: Great Britain has long been a contender on the world stage and this year is no exception. Great Britain, along with Australia, have one of the biggest upsides of the top tier of team contenders but may fall victim to inexperience. As the only four-star pair on the list, the experienced Chilli Morning and William Fox-Pitt anchor the team of young up-and-coming three-star horses. With the cross country being described as a proper four-star course, this team will have their work cut out for them.

Competing for: Podium finish

Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen. Photo by Jenni Autry.

 UNITED STATES 

Members: Phillip Dutton and Mighty Nice, Lauren Kieffer and Veronica, Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery, and Clark Montgomery and Loughan Glen

Analysis: Experience will be on the USA’s side this weekend, with four experienced four-star horses ready to tackle Pierre’s four-star course. This team has the second smallest delta between their personal best scores and their averages, meaning as individuals they more regularly perform close to their bests than all other teams except France. Clark and Loughan Glen’s performance is key for the team, who will need a final score in the 30s for the team to be competitive for a medal.

Competing for: Podium finish

PROMISING POTENTIAL

Rebecca Howard and Riddle Master at Luhmühlen in June. Photo by Libby Law Photography.

 CANADA 

Members: Rebecca Howard and Riddle Master, Colleen Loach and Qorry Blue d’Argouges, Jessica Phoenix and A Little Romance, and Kathryn Robinson and Let It Bee

Analysis: Canada is an interesting mix of youth and experience, with the precocious Qorry Blue d’Argouges moving up to the three-star level just this spring to the experienced Riddle Master who represented Canada at both the 2010 WEG and the London Olympic Games.

A Little Romance is a jumping bean who hasn’t yet really had a fair chance to complete a four-star while Let It Bee provides an experienced but steady presence for the cross country phase. They’ll need a bit of help from the other teams in order to become a contender this weekend, but a tough cross country gives them a chance.

Competing for: Top 10 finish

Clare Abbott and Euro Prince at the 2014 World Equestrian Games. Photo by Jenni Autry.

  IRELAND 

Members: Clare Abbott and Euro Prince, Jonty Evans and Cooley Rorkes Drift, Mark Kyle and Jemilla, Padraig McCarthy and Simon Porloe

Analysis: Ireland is a team that could either benefit or suffer from a tough cross country course. Although fairly strong across the board, the dressage scores of this team will likely keep them out of the top unless other teams struggle on cross country day.

On the other hand, only Clare Abbott and Euro Prince have four-star experience together. Cooley Rorkes Drift and Jemilla are both three-star horses with experienced riders, while Padraig McCarthy has yet to attempt a four-star, although his mount is plenty experienced under Padraig’s wife Lucy McCarthy (née Wiesgersma).

Competing for: Top 10 finish

Arianna Schivo and Quefira De L’Ormeau. Photo by Samantha Clark.

 ITALY 

Members: Stefano Brecciaroli and Apollo VD Wendi Kurt Hoeve, Luca Roman and Castlewoods Jake, Pietro Roman and Barraduff, Arianna Schivo and Quefira De L’Ormeau

Analysis: Stefano and Apollo VD Wendi Kurt Hoeve are the only experienced four-star pair on this team, but the other three pairs have extensive mileage at the three-star level and should be prepared to handle Pierre Michelet’s course this week. Collectively, their dressage is not quite strong enough to compete for a medal, but Stefano could be in the individual hunt.

Competing for: Top 10 finish

Sara Algotsson Ostholt and Reality 39 at Aachen in 2015. Photo by Jenni Autry.

 SWEDEN 

Members: Linda Algotsson and Fairnet, Sara Algostsson-Ostholt and Reality 39, Frida Andersen and Herta, and Ludwig Svennerstal and Aspe

Analysis: With not one established four-star horse on the team, Sweden is fighting an uphill battle in Rio. Reality 39 is the most experienced of the lot and the only one who could realistically contend for an individual medal, although the other three should be able to provide solid but non-competitive finishes.

Competing for: Top 10 finish

DETERMINED UNDERDOGS

Ruy Fonseca and Tom Bombadill Too at Rolex 2014. Photo by Kasey Mueller.

 BRAZIL 

Members: Marcio Appel and Iberon Jmen, Marcio Carvalho Jorge and Lissy Mac Wayer, Ruy Fonseca and Tom Bombadill Too, and Carlos Parro and Summon Up the Blood

Analysis: Host country Brazil will have a lot of support behind them, which may help them rise to the occasion. Despite an incredibly experienced horse (Tom Bombadill Too) and a horse who could be near the top on the flat (Lissy Mac Wayer), this team struggles with time penalties across the country. A top-10 finish for this team would be a very respectable accomplishment for them.

Competing for: A solid completion

Tim Lips and Bayro at Luhmühlen 2015. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

 THE NETHERLANDS 

Members: Merel Blom and Rumour Has It, Tim Lips and Bayro, Alice Naber-Lozeman and ACSI Peter Parker, and Theo Van de Vendel and Zindane

Analysis: Merel Blom and Tim Lips will both likely provide solid finishes on their horses, while the other two can be counted on for clear cross country rounds. Unfortunately, between a horse who is tough on the flat and another who takes a bit of time across the country, it’s unlikely that the Netherlands will be in medal contention.

Competing for: Top 10 finish

Aleksandr Markov and Kurfurstin. Photo by Jenni Autry.

 RUSSIA 

Members: Aleksandr Markov and Kurfurstin, Evgeniya Ovchinnikova and Orion, and Andrey Mitin and Gurza

Analysis: As the only three-member team in Rio, these riders will have no room for error. None of the horses or riders have ever attempted a four-star, and only Markov and Kurfurstin have competed outside of the Russian region. This is the first time any of these riders have represented Russia for eventing, and it is a major accomplishment just for them to be here.

Competing for: A solid completion

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