It’s time for the EN team to make their ultra-scientific picks for this year’s Land Rover Kentucky Three-Day Event, presented by MARS Equestrian using a bizarre method of numerology, runes and feelings. If you’d like to take a crack at picking the winner, might we suggest using our super-handy Ultimate Form Guide to LRK3DE, which can be downloaded here for just $5 (a portion of which will go to an equestrian access program!).
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SHELBY ALLEN
Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class. Photo by Shelby Allen.
Big Winner: Oliver Townend and Cooley Master Class
Top American: Liz Halliday-Sharp and Deniro Z
Top Canadian: Colleen Loach and Qorry Blue D’Argouges
Spoiler Alert: Tamie Smith and Mai Baum
Top Thoroughbred: Will Coleman and Tight Lines
Best Mare: Jonelle Price and Classic Moet
Kevin McNab and Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
TILLY BERENDT
Big Winner: Kevin McNab and Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam
It’s hard to bet against Oliver Townend, who brings forward both his two-time reigning champion and his nigh-on unbeatable Burghley winner. But it’s also quite hard to be smug about correctly picking the favourite to win, and what’s the point of picking a winner at all if not to get the chance to gloat relentlessly at the end of it all? And so I’m going to go for a pair who I’d love to see take it – in fact, when they planned to compete here last year, I texted the rest of the EN team on Slack and called them as my winner then and there. It might be a long shot against Oliver, but the Kentucky crown, for me, goes to Australia’s Kevin McNab and Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam. The horse still lacks a bit of experience but he’s been exceptional at both his five-stars at Pau, finishing in the top ten in his debut and losing out on a placing last year with some annoying time penalties picked up while trying to avoid crossing his tracks. Don’t let that put you off: this course was made for this keen, clever little horse and Kevin has undeservedly flown under the radar for way too long: after all, he’s the man responsible for producing the likes of Jock Paget and Chris Burton. Don Quidam WILL win a five-star in his career – and I’d definitely feel smug if it was this one.
Top American: Tamie Smith and Mai Baum
There are some serious heavy-hitters fighting it out to become the US National Champion this year, and any one of them is good enough that they could even win it all. My heart is torn between Tamie Smith and Mai Baum and Liz Halliday-Sharp and Deniro Z, though in the end, Tamie just edges it for me with those sub-20 dressage scores. It feels like her moment for a big one is overdue, and as the daughter of a hardworking single mum, I’m ready to scream myself hoarse cheering on this extraordinary woman who balanced creating a top-level career with raising her equally remarkable daughter, Kaylawna, AND pursuing an education. She’s an inspiration and an exceptional talent, and at the end of the day, I want the fairytale story, not the algorithms.
Top Canadian: Hawley Bennett-Awad and Jollybo
My vote for this would previously have gone to Holly Jacks-Smither and More Inspiration, who I’ve had the honour of reporting on in Europe – but sadly, ‘Morris’ was found to have a heart murmur when being inspected upon arrival at the horse park, and Holly made the very hard, but absolutely correct, decision to retire him immediately from his competitive career. My thoughts are with Holly and I hope Morris has the loveliest of retirements. In their stead, I put forward Hawley Bennett-Awad and tiny, feisty Jollybo, who was actually sourced by my trainer and landlord Kate Tarrant, so we all cheer her on here in the UK. She’s exactly my type of gritty, gutsy, doesn’t-know-she’s-tiny kind of mare, and I think she’ll gobble this track up to climb through the week.
Spoiler Alert: Anna Siemer and FRH Butt’s Avondale
I’m going to cheat and put forward two. Germany’s Anna Siemer and FRH Butt’s Avondale really impressed me at the European Championships in 2019, where they climbed and climbed to best some of the continent’s best pairs. They have a great relationship and are likely to give us one of the rounds of the day on Saturday. Likewise, New Zealand’s Jesse Campbell and Diachello look on great form, but have gone under the radar because Jesse has put horsemanship top of his priority list, purring his horse along at four-star rather than running hell-bent for leather. He rates the gelding highly, and I’m with him on that. Both these horses could do big things this week.
Top Thoroughbred: Tight Lines (Will Coleman)
I want to see redemption for Will Coleman and Tight Lines, who were victims of 2019’s highly controversial flag rule but who have been class throughout their upper-level partnership. He’s a real trier, and this pair have a great partnership, so if Derek has been flexing his muscles ahead of Tokyo while designing this course, I think we could see them make a real move.
Best Mare: Classic Moet (Jonelle Price)
Jonelle Price’s Classic Moet is looking like more and more of a sure thing as this snow keeps on falling, and rain on Saturday is a good omen, too. Classic Moet won’t lead the dressage but she’s undoubtedly one of the best cross-country horses in the world, so she needs a tough track with a difficult time and tricky footing in order to truly shine. In those conditions, she can run circles around most horses, and that could create a match-race between her and Ballaghmor Class, which would make the final phase – a slightly weaker point for both horses – achingly exciting.
MAGGIE DEATRICK
Phillip Dutton and Z. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.
Big Winner: Phillip Dutton and Z
To some extent I can’t believe I’m picking an American to take the win this year but I’ve crunched the numbers and was ultimately surprised to see the result. However Z is hitting his prime and firing on all cylinders at the moment, and it is only fitting that the same transplanted American who last won our own 5* prior to the drought of American wins be the one to bring us out of it. Phillip Dutton might be thirteen years older than he was but he’s also thirteen years better. Having said that, there are about eight or nine horses who will be within a rail of each other vying for the win, so ultimately it’s going to be a nail-biter.
Top American: Phillip Dutton and Z
See above.
Top Canadian: Colleen Loach and Qorry Blue D’Argouges
Colleen and her longtime partner Qorry Blue D’Argouges are good in every phase. That will be enough to put them at the top of the Canadians but unfortunately being good in every phase will not be enough to be supremely competitive in the field at large this weekend.
Spoiler Alert: Off the Record and Will Coleman or Mai Baum and Tamie Smith….or both
I know it’s cheating to pick two but these are some of the most exciting horses we’ve had in American in a long time. The long-awaited 5* debut of Mai Baum has been greatly anticipated and with good reason; the horse has almost a flawless A/4* record and is good enough on the flat to possibly take the lead position after dressage, new to this level or not. But Off the Record is equally exciting, a horse with a reputation for finishing on his dressage score. He’s finished in the top three in all but three of his completions and has never been outside the top ten at A/4*.
Top Thoroughbred: Tight Lines and Will Coleman
Unfortunately I don’t think the Thoroughbreds in the field are going to fare terribly well this year; the best hopes the breed has for a top placing is from Tight Lines. While his speed is top notch and his stadium record fairly strong at the 5* level, his uneven performances on cross-country make a big question mark for Saturday. If he can shake off the bad luck he’s had at the level, we may see him in contention for something in the top ten.
Best Mare: RF Scandalous and Marilyn Little
This mare’s uncanny ability to lay down incredible test after incredible test is combines well with her ability to jump clear rounds in the stadium phase to give this pair a little bit of leeway on the cross country. Ultimately, the question is how much leeway will they need, with rain predicted for Saturday’s course.
ABBY POWELL
Colleen Loach and Qorry Blue d’Argouges. Photo by Leslie Thelkeld.
Big Winner: Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class
I don’t feel like this is going to be the year for an American winner, unfortunately. Not with the biggest field from overseas that we’ve seen in … ever? I think? How do I even choose between Oliver Townend, Jonelle Price and Tim Price and their combo of horses? To be fair though, it’s pretty darn hard to bet against Ballaghmor Class and those dressage scores paired with the likelihood that he’ll have good jumping rounds too.
Top American: Likely Boyd Martin or Marilyn Little, if the European contingent can be topped. Tamie Smith or Liz Halliday-Sharp could give them a run for it though!
Top Canadian: Colleen Loach and Qorry Blue d’Argouges
While we’ve sadly had a couple Canadian withdrawals from the original entry list already, I’d put my money on Colleen Loach and her Olympic and WEG partner Qorry Blue d’Argouges.
Spoiler Alert: Sydney Elliot and QC Diamantaire
This will be the first five-star for “Q”, I just think he’s such a cool horse and looking in great form. Will Coleman and Off the Record, another really great horse who is new to the level, could very well sneak up on us too.
Top Thoroughbred: Tight Lines (Will Coleman)
The veteran of Will’s three rides in this competition, could be pretty high up the leaderboard at the end of the competition. I bet they’ll be the top Thoroughbred finisher and maybe then some.
Best Mare: Grappa Nera (Jonelle Price)
I’m really looking forward to watching Jonelle Price and Grappa Nera go. Aside from Marilyn and RF Scandalous, I think are strong contenders for this title.
KATE SAMUELS
Tamie Smith and Mai Baum. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.
Big Winner: Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class
Although I don’t usually bet on the favorite, it’s hard to dismiss Oliver and Thomas. Their two day total should give them enough breathing room to tip a rail on Sunday and still take home the win.
Top American: Tamie Smith and Mai Baum
I’m going out on a limb with this one and saying I think it’s time for Lexus to shine in all three phases. It’s a big ask, but with a horse like that, why not?
Top Canadian: Karl Slezak and Fernhill Wishes
Even though it’s a first 5* for both Karl and “Chocy”, they’re incredibly consistent in both jumping phases, and will move up the leaderboard nicely.
Spoiler Alert: Will Coleman and Off the Record
“Timmy” can hang with the best of them in all three phases, and as Will’s third ride of the day, he will benefit from the best guidance he can get in all three phases.
Top Thoroughbred: Tight Lines (Will Coleman)
“Phish” has had bad luck on cross country for such a good jumping horse, but I think the quieter atmosphere and a few more years under his belt will serve him well this weekend and he will get his rightful part of the spotlight.
Best Mare: Classic Moet (Jonelle Price)
It looks like rain on Saturday and we all know Molly loves nothing more than everyone else struggling in the mud, because she positively skips over the ground in her unorthodox way. I’m betting on her as a sentimental note, as this may well be the mare’s last hurrah at the level.
SALLY SPICKARD
Tamie Smith and Mai Baum (USA). Photo by Shannon Brinkman.
Big Winner: Tamie Smith and Mai Baum
As a California transplant, I have to put my hat in the ring for one of our Westies, Tamie Smith and the big black stallion, Mai Baum. Tamie brought approximately 385 horses to the East coast this spring between herself and her daughter and fellow upper-level rider Kaylawna Smith-Cook, and the trip is nearly at its end this week as Mai Baum makes his long-awaited five-star debut. I first fell in love with “Lexus” when I saw his owner and former pilot Alex Ahearn competing at the American Eventing Championships way back in…2013? There’s just something about this guy – and while I think the challenge is stiff, what with the weather and the tough competition, this dynamic duo is due for a big moment and this weekend could surely turn out to be just that.
Top American: Doug Payne and Vandiver
It’s hard to bet against experience, and I think you could easily make an argument to put this pair in the “Big Winner” category. Doug and “Quinn” are among the most experienced pair in the field this year, and with Doug’s penchant for going fast and Derek di Grazia’s penchant for designing courses that all but beg you to attack them, we should see some special riding skills on display come Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this pair make an improvement on their previous personal best third place finish here in 2019.
Top Canadian: Karl Slezak and Fernhill Wishes
While this is a five-star debutante pair, I’m going with Karl Slezak and Fernhill Wishes for this category. And no, it’s not because Karl loves Nickelback (or maybe it is. Hero? That song was a bop), but rather it’s because of the consistency this pair has shown as they’ve methodically moved up the levels in preparation for this weekend. We won’t necessarily see this pair show off blinding speed on Saturday, but they’ve got a great shot to come home clear and leave the poles in their cups on Sunday.
Spoiler Alert: Oliver Townend and Ballaghmor Class
Yes, I know Oliver can hardly be called a spoiler, but I’m sticking with my weird, feelings-based picks ok? I’d be remiss not to mention an overseas entrant in my picks, as we know how well the UK and European pairs tend to fare in Kentucky. It’s honestly a toss-up between Kentucky winner Cooley Master Class and Burghley winner Ballaghmor Class (really, Oliver, share some with the rest of us will you?), but I’m going to go with Ballaghmor Class for our Spoiler Alert who could well just take home the whole dang pie this weekend. You can bet that Oliver won’t bat an eye at some slop on Saturday, which could play out to be a huge advantage when push comes to shove.
Top Thoroughbred: AP Prime
I’m going with a sentimental pick here, but it’s so great to see AP Prime back out and thriving with his longtime partner, Leah Lang-Gluscic. Leah is a fellow Midwesterner and has produced this OTTB from the very start. Now he’s back in Kentucky for the first time in 2018, though that year the pair wouldn’t complete. This is a fun horse to watch on cross country day, and you really can’t beat an AP Indy grandson representing the incredible Thoroughbred so my hat’s off to this pair!
Best Mare: Classic Moet
The EN team has been rolling their eyes at me all week while I fan-girl gushed over the thought of finally seeing Classic Moet in person. This fiery mare should put on an absolute masterclass of how to go really fast across the country, and particularly if she manages a clear show jumping round on Sunday I think there’s every bit of chance that “Molly”, at the age of 18 years young, clinches another five-star win or at least a podium finish.
LESLIE WYLIE
Chinch says: WEAR YO’ MASK!!!!! (And no, you aren’t seeing double, I had this bad boy custom printed.) Photo courtesy of Leslie Wylie.
As caboose of this crazy train, per tradition I am conscientiously objecting from picks and simply wishing every last horse and rider a safe, happy 2021 Land Rover Kentucky Three-Day Event. Let’s do this thing. Go Eventing!
