Classic Eventing Nation

Photo courtesy of Peter Gray.

This weekend is a big finale for a short season as we look ahead to crowning a new Buckeye Nutrition CCI4* USEF National champion. On their way to winning the title, horses and riders will have to tackle today’s Captain Mark Phillips-designed cross country course. Our resident statistician, Maggie Deatrick, has taken the time to provide an excellent analysis of the last two days of dressage, as well as what to expect on cross country day today make sure you give it a read here.

The optimum time has been updated to 10:03 for the 5700 m long course which boasts 28 numbered obstacles and 43 jumping efforts. Horses will be running at 4 minute intervals and you can find the course map right here.

Coverage of Tryon International this weekend is brought to you by Strides for Equality Equestrians (SEE). Diversity and inclusion in all equestrian sports are important, and we’ll be bringing you tidbits on what this new organization hopes to accomplish.

MARS Tryon International: Website, Entry Status, Schedule, Order of Go, Ride Times, Live Scores, Live Stream, Coverage

2:52 PM: Scores aren’t official yet, but here are your top ten as it stands at the moment. A full repot will be along in a bit. Thanks for tuning in!

2:45 PM: And we’re done! Buck and Carlevo crossed the finish line, likely gathering some time penalties. Doug and Vandiver were just a single second over time and 0.4 time penalties. They sit third into show jumping unless Carlevo was actually under time.

2:43 PM: Doug and Vandiver have finished by now, and we’re waiting their score. Buck and Carlevo are almost home.

2:40 PM: Boyd and Thomas hav crossed the finish line in 10:06, the exact same time as Liz. That means they add 1.6 time penalties to their dressage score and slot into second over night. Buck and Doug are now the only remaining riders on course and both could sit in the top 5 at the end of the day.

2:36 PM: Our last pair out is now on course! It’s Buck Davidson and Carlevo. Doug is over The Bee at fence 18.

2:34 PM: Jennie and Stella Artois are through the finish flags and just a couple second over time, while Boyd flies through the water and over the boats at fence 21AB the Marina.

2:31 PM: Jennie is nearing the end of the course and is over fence 22 while Boyd clears 14. Our second to last starter is also now on course in Doug Payne and Vandiver.

2:29 PM: Boyd Martin and Tsetserleg are now on course and clear through the first water. They have the opportunity to slot into second overnight if they go fast and clear.

2:26 PM: We’re getting close to wrapping this thing up now. Jennie Brannigan and Stella Artois are now on course and clear through fence 12.

2:24 PM: Phillip and Z’s score has posted and came in double clear. That puts them on a 28.8 heading into show jumping and within a rail of Liz.

2:23 PM: Oh dear! Sydnet Soloman gets thrown onto Early Review’s neck after landing from fence 6B and slides off the right side. Looks like might have taken a bitof a hard fall, so we hope she’s alright.

2:19 PM: Whoops… FE Capricino runs out at the second squirrel. She opts to retire. Holly is clear trough fence 16 so far and Sydney Soloman and Early Review have just started.

2:18 PM: Holly Jacks Smither with Candy King and Victora Garland and FE Capricino are both on course and good so far.

2:15 PM: Liz and Deniro will be leaders heading into show jumping! She didn’t quite make time and brings home 1.6 time penalties, but it’s enough to guarantee the top spot overnight. Well done Liz!

2:12 PM: Liz and Deniro Z have a really fabulous round and cross the finish time we think within time! We’ll let you know as soon as we hear it’s official. Phillip and Z are through the Marina and Caroline Martin and Danger Mouse are on course now.

2:10 PM: We didn’t end up seeing much of Valerie and Favian, but they are home safe.

2:07 PM: Phillip Dutton and Z are on course now too. Liz and Deniro are clear through fence 17.

2:04 PM: Our current leaders Liz Halliday Sharp and Deniro Z are now on course and clear thus far! Since our leaders after dressage ran into trouble, the door is now open for Liz to head into show jumping as the clubhouse leader.

2:00 PM: Valerie Vizcarrondo Pride and favian are now on course and let’s catch up with some scores here as well: Andrea Baxter and Indy 500 clocked in a double clear round, Leslie Law and Voltaire de Tre came home with 5.2 in time penalties, Jules Ennis and Cooley O gathered 40.40 time penalties, and unfortunately Tamie and Danito will drop down the leaderboard with 11 penalties for knocking that frangible and they pick up 17.6 time penalties as well.

1:54 PM: We’re receiving word from the grounds grew and TD that they’re checking the landing from that drop after every horse now since so many have been pecking there. In all the excitement, we haven’t mentioned yet that both Ashlynn Meuchel with Emporium and Nilson Da Silva on Magnum’s Martini are both on course.

1:52 PM: Oh geez!! Tamie and Danito almost go down at the drop into the MARS Sustainability Bay, but she says on and saves it. They knock a flag at the corner of the big oxer out too, though not sure that will be penalized.

1:50 PM: Danito gets a bit close to the A element of 15ABC and ends up taking the frangible pin at that element. Unfortunately for Tamie, that means they won’t take over the lead. They’re on their feet though and still jumping!

1:48 PM: Dang, we have another soaked rider at the MARS Sustainability Bay as Fylicia bounces off of Galloway Sunrise on landing.

1:45 PM: Alright, both Fylicia Barr with Galloway Sunrise are Tamie Smith with Danito are on course. We missed Fylicia starting while we were admiring the jumps we hadn’t seen yet!

1:42 PM: Ooooh — we now have a camera out in the back field where fences 14, 15ABC, and 16 are. Andrea and Indy tackle the coffin at 15 flawlessly.

1:40 PM: OK phew, Tamie and Danito are just taking care of a tack issue so we’ll see them out in a bit. Meanwhile, Andrea and Indy are looking good through 13AB. Leslie Law and Voltaire de Tre are also coming up on the finish.

1:39 PM: We were expecting the fourth place Tamie Smith and Danito to start next, but we have Andrea Baxter and Indy 500 out of the box next instead.

1:35 PM: Cooley O trots after the drop into the MARS Sustainability Bay and Jules gets her going again, nocking a flag at the corner on their way out of water. Leslie Law and Voltaire de Tre are also on course now and looking good.

1:32 PM: Phew! Lynn gets a bit lucky as RF Cool Play catches her right front leg a bit on the second boat in fence 23AB The Marina. Coolio is catty and all four feet underneath him though and they’re fine!

1:30 PM: Sara Mittleider and La Paz have crossed the finish line with what appeared to be a clear jumping round. Jules Ennis and Cooley O are on course and take the long route at the first water which takes them up and over the bridge. Lynn and “Coolio” are clear so far.

1:26 PM: Lynn Symansky and her 2019 Pan Am partner RF Cool Play are now on course and clear through the first water. They head into the day in 10th on a 28.6 and have a chance to steal pole position.

1:24 PM: Shoot!! TKS Cooley pecks on landing after the big drop into the MARS Sustainability Bay and Will just pops off over the horse’s shoulder. He landed on his feet, so at least he didn’t get too wet, but that’s a real bummer.

1:23 PM: Sara Mittleider and La Paz are out on course now and looking nice through fence 10.

1:20 PM: Will Coleman and TKS Cooley are now on course and clear through fence 8 the Bird Feeder Gate. Kyle Carter and Missy Miller are still out on course.

1:19 PM: Scores, scores, scores! Zoe Crawford and KEC Zara jumped clear and came in one second under time, Emily Hamel and Corvette jumped clear and bring home 14 time penalties, Lauren Lambert and Fantastique jumped clear and gain 17.2 time. Megan Sykes and Annie Goodwin both came home safe but with 20 jumping penalties plus time.

1:13 PM: Jennie and Calicia Z are safely over fence 24. Kyle Carter and Reddy or Not have just left the start box.

1:10 PM: Matt and Wizzerd are making easy work of the course so far and are clear through fence 13. Missy Miller and Quinn are now on course.

1:08 PM: Meanwhile, Matt Flynn with Wizzerd and Jennie Jarnstrom-Dennis and Calicia Z are our newest on course. Matt is clear through fence 9 so far and Jennie should be approaching fence 19 soon. Emily and Corvette are home.

1:05 PM: NO! Cashmere takes a big jump into the MARS Sustainability Bay and poor Mia just rolls right over his head and gets soaked. Both are up and alright, but that’s a soggy end to their weekend.

1:01 PM: Tim Bourke and the lovely mare Quality Time are home bang on the optimum time with no jumping penalties. Mia Braundel and Cashmere are now on course and clear through fence 6. Emily and Corvette pop over the bumblebee at 18 and drop into the water at the MARS Sustainability Bay.

12:59 PM: Emily Hamel and high-jumping Corvett are not on course and good through the combo at 13AB. Zoe takes KEC Zara through the same little shortcut that Tim used on their way to fence 20.

12:57 PM: Ever the cross country speedster, Tim takes Quality Time for a little shortcut through some landscaping on their way up to the A element of fence 20. They’re now clear through fence 22 as well. Zoe Crawford and KEC Zara are also on course at this time.

12:53 PM: Shoot — Classic’s Mojah runs out at the C element of Mars Equestrian at Chimney Rock. He and Megan will pick up 20 penalties there.

12:50 PM: Lauren Lambert takes an option at 20ABC, Mars Equestrian at Chimney Rock, avoiding the downhill skinnies and remaining clear. Tim Bourke and Quality Time are now on course and looking good through the Moonshine Pipe fence 10.

12:46 PM: Lauren Lambert and Fantastique and Megan Sykes and Classic’s Mojah are both now on course

12:43 PM: Lucienne and Mistralou have now crossed the finish line and Annie and Fedarman B make easy work of the big drop into the MARS Sustainability Bay.

12:41 PM: Oh dear, another problem at 6ABC. Our most recent starters Arielle Aharoni and Dutch Times run into trouble at the B element when Dutch Times says ‘no thank you’ and Arielle slips off.

12:39 PM: Whoops! Federman B jumps huge over the B element of fence 6ABC the FEI Stabling Boxes and Annie can’t quite collect him enough to get over to clear the C element. They make it over on their next try.

12:37 PM: Buck and Erroll Gobey have now finished. The other riders currently out on course are Jennie Brannigan and Twilightslastgleam, Lucienne Elms and Mistralou, and Annie Goodwin and Fedarman B.

12:30 PM: We just got work that Lauren Nicolson has withdrawn Landmark’s Monte Carlo and Hannah Sue Burnett has withdrawn her second ride Harbour Pilot, who was sitting in 8th after dressage.

12:27 PM: Buck and Erroll Gobey are now out on course and we also have some scores to update you on: Megan O’ Donoghue and Palm Crescent have finished under time but their score is showing 15 jump penalties which means they must have knocked a flag somewhere along the way, Kaelen Speck and Sweet Rebellion jump clear but add 24.8 time penalties, and Woods Baughman and C’est La Vie 135 were indeed clear and fast. They’ll take over the current lead on their score of 29.1.

12:24 PM: Star Witness takes some funny steps as she locks onto fence 10 the Moonshine Pipes. Doug looks back over his shoulder at something, but we’re not sure what.

12:21 PM: Doug Payne is also back again, this time with his super cool mare and Pan Am partner Starr Witness. He’s looking to give this mare a solid run to set her up for coming out strong next year.

12:19 PM: Boyd is back with his second of three rides in this division and her’s over the fence 8 with On Cue. Megan O’ Donoghue and Palm Crescent are coming up on the last jump and looking like they have plenty of time to spare. Kaelen Speck and Sweet Rebellion are also currently out on course now.

12:16 PM: Crap! A piece of equipment is dangling from Steady Eddie — it looks like a broken breastplate. Mike puts his hand up and opts to retire after 20ABC. That really stinks.

12:15 PM: We just got word that Jacob Fletcher has retired on course. We haven’t seen much of him on the live stream. Woods and “Contendro” have finished and looked quite fast. We’ll let you know when we get his time!

12:12 PM: Will and Don Dante are over the last and look like the had a good round and could be close to catching the time. Meagan O’Donahue and Palm Crescent are now our most recent starters.

12:09 PM: Steady Eddie is looking fresh for Mike Pendleton through 6ABC as they head out through the early portion of the course, but they get it done.

12:07 PM: Woods Baughman is now on course and looking quick with last year’s CCI3*-L National Champion C’est La Vie 135. This pair could take over the lead is all goes well.

12:03 PM: OH NO! Maya Black gets a dunking on the drop into the MARS Sustainability Bay as Miks Master C unsets her on landing.

12:02 PM: Will Coleman and Don Dante are now on course and looking super through the first 8 fences.

11:59 AM: We just got word that Sara and Reubens had a fall at the second to last fence, which is hugely gutting for that pair. Fortunately, they’re both up and OK but that’s still a disappointing finish to their weekend.

11:58 AM: Booli Selmayr has a huge smile on her face and give Millfield Lancado big pats as they cross the finish.

11:56 AM: Jacob Fletcher and 5o1 Mischief Managed are now on course and over 7AB Bridgett’s Squirrels.

11:54 AM: A few score updates here: Allison Springer and Business Ben came in 33 seconds over time, so they’ll ad 13.2 penalties to their core. Zach Brandt and Direct Advance racked up 20 penalties somewhere along the course and added 22 penalties in time as well.

11:50 AM: Booli Selmayr with Millfield Lancado and Nilson Da Silva with Rock Phantom now join Bobby and Sara on course. Sara is nearing home and is clear so far, but is looking tight on the clock possibly.

11:47 AM: Uhoh — Bobby runs into trouble at 20C as he can’t quite get Fortuna back after B element in time to jump C. They’ll pick up 20 there.

11:45 AM: Sara Kozumplik Murphy and Rubens D’ysieux are now on course and they have the ability to take  the lead over from Ariel if they go fast and clear.

11:41 AM: Cornelia Dorr and Daytona Beach 8 are home with no jumping penalties. Waylon and Lancaster finished with 6 time penalties. Bobby Meyerhoff and Fortuna are now on course and Bobby ducks as they cross under the bridge at the FEI Stabling Water. Zach Brandt and Direct Advance are further along down the course and running through the final water.

11:37 AM: Score update! Syndey Conley Elliott and QC Diamantaire are our third double clear pair. They’ll remain on their 30.60.

11:35 AM: Bummer … Dan Clasing has put his hand up with MW Gangster’s Game fairly close to the end of course. We’re not sure what happened, as it looks like they were going well up to that point.

11:33 AM: Alison Springer and Business Ben have left the start box and they should be fun to watch. Alison likes to joke that Ben loves cross country so much that he dreams about it.

11:30 AM: Waylon Roberts, Daniel Clasing, and Cornelia Dorr are our three current riders on course now. Daytona Beach 8 was a little wiggly on approach to the jump with the water works at fence AB, but Cornelia gets it done!

11:27 AM: What a run! Ariel and Simon are officially double clear, making the time easily in 9:45. That makes them the first sub-30 score to protect their placing after dressage. They’ll stay on their 29.90.

11:24 AM: Waylon and Lancaster are flying through the first part of the course, but Lancaster is looking a touch sticky. Ariel and Simon have now finished and they looked fast. We’ll keep an eye out for their official score. Sydney is now through the fence 19, the MARS Sustainability Bay.

11:21 AM: Ariel and Simon are looking super and seeing great distances. They’re through 20ABC.

11:19 AM: We just received word that Kate Brown and Victor Z have retired. Sydney Conley Eliot and QC Diamantaire are on course and clear through the fence 5 combination. Waylon Roberts and Lancaster are circling the box.

11:16 AM: We’re getting a shot of Marilyn and Kitty walking off course so it appears they are calling it a day. We have times in for Holly Jacks Smither who finished with 13.6 time and Phillip with Sea of Clouds who was once second over time.

11:14 AM: Ariel Grald and Leamore Master plan are over fence 1. Ariel was super thrilled with “Simon’s” dressage yesterday.

11:13 AM: Meanwhile, Leslie Law and QC First Class have been on course for a while and are nearing the end. Kate Brown and Victor Z are our most recent starters.

11:09 AM: And we will officially have a new leader at the end of the day. “Kitty” takes a big leap over the first squirrel at fence 7AB and runs out at the second.

11:07 AM: Our leaders after dressage are out of the box and on course now: Marilyn Little and RF Scandalous.

11:05 AM: Eek! Oh no, Lukeswell slips out behind while presenting to the C element of Fence 20 and runs out. Hannah Sue puts her hand up and calls it a day.

11:04 AM: We have our first double clear of the day! Will Faudree and Mama’s Magic Way came in at 9:51 — 9 seconds under time. Phillip Dutton and Sea of Clouds are also out on course now.

10:59 AM: Here’s a pair to keep our eyes on — Hannah Sue Burrnett and Lukeswell are on course now and they’re the first pair to take the long option at Fence 5AB which takes the pair over the bridge instead of under. They slip a bit on a tight turn, but look just fine.

10:53 AM: Canada’s Holly Jacks Smither and her OTTB More Inspiration are now on course and is making her way toward the squirrels. Will and Mason are clear thus far.

10:50 AM: We’re back underway and Will Faudree and Mama’s Magic Way aka “Mason” are on course. The announcers are guessing that the hold was just due to the grounds crew wanting to check the footing.

10:49 AM: There’s currently a hold on course but we haven’t received word as to why. No horses are currently on course. Tamie’s score with En Vogue is in and it shows 40 jumping penalties and 20 time will will drop them down the leaderboard

10:40 AM: We have some official scores in! Buck and Jak My Style are fastest so far, finishing in 10:07 — just four seconds over optimum. Jennie Brannigan and FE Lifestyle now sit in the early pole position as they finish in 10:14, adding 4.4 to their dressage score. Boyd and Blackfoot Mystery were clear with 8 time penalties, and Doug picked up 14 in time.

10:37 AM: Dang … En Vogue just canters right by the B element of 20 ABC. They’re carrying 40 penalties now.

10:35 AM: Boyd and Buck have both finished. Buck and Jak may have been fairly close to the time as he gives Jak big pats!

10:31 AM: Tamie Smith and En Vougue pick up a very unfortunate stop at fence 4. Huge bummer!

10:29 AM: Jennie Brannigan and FE Lifestyle are on course and over the squirrels at 7AB.

10:25 AM:  Doug has crossed the finish line and announcer Tim Singer unofficially clocks him at 10:40, but says Doug planned to ride this horse at 80%. Buck Davidson and Jack My Style are also out on course now.

10:20 AM: Boyd Martin and his 2016 Rio Olympic partner Blackfoot Mystery have left the start box. Smooth sailing for Doug and Quantum Leap so far.

10:16 AM: And we’re off! Our first combination, Doug Payne and Quantum Leap are on course.

10:10 AM: As we await the first pair on course we’ve received word that the following combinations have withdrawn: Caroline Martin and Danger Mouse, Lauren Nicholson and Paramount Importance, and Clayton Fredericks with his two mounts FE Stormtrooper and FE Always in Time.

Before we start, take a quick walk thorough some of the key combinations with USA Eventing Technical Advisor Erik Duvander:

Coverage of Tryon International this weekend is brought to you by Strides for Equality Equestrians (SEE). Diversity and inclusion in all equestrian sports are important, and we’ll be bringing you tidbits on what this new organization hopes to accomplish.

Ariel Grald and Leamore Master Plan.
Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

This weekend has felt almost as exciting as a weekend at Kentucky, with so many top competitors and a large field to watch all day. I’ve greatly enjoyed the live commentators, letting me listen in even while working and unable to fully focus on the dressage tests going on.

DRESSAGE ANALYSIS – DAY TWO

On the surface, yesterday proceeded much like Thursday, with very few real surprises in the scoring. That is a testament both to the quality of the judging and the consistency of the pairs who rode in an echoing, empty, imposing stadium; despite the lack of crowds, the atmosphere remains electric. Being able to bring out, at minimum, a test that meets expectations in a moment that matters is a critical skill and the riders this weekend have displayed it in spades.

On Thursday, 33% of the pairs finished within a point of their expected dressage score; of the 39 pairs who competed today, 38% did the same thing. Yesterday’s overall dressage average of 34.17 is only 0.21 penalty points below the expected average of 34.38 showing once again the consistency of the performances and the judging. Overall for the two days dressage, the expected overall average differed from the actual overall average by just over a tenth of a point.

What is extremely fascinating though, is that now that judge percentiles have been made available, an additional story has unfolded. Although the overall dressage averages from the three judges appeared consistent, it is clear that a difference of opinion was consistently occurring based on the views each judge had. The three judges varied by more than 5.0 percentages points on 17 tests, or 21.5% of the field, which is significantly higher than the average variance of 13.7% you might see at a 5* field who have that large of a gap between scores. Similarly, the number of riders with differences of 3.0 percentages points or more was 48, or 60.8% of the field, compared to a more typical 42.5% that you might see in a 5*.

Initially, this could seem alarming but let’s look further. It turns out that the judge at M consistently scored tougher throughout the divisions, awarding the lowest percentages to 64% of the field and ultimately only rewarding 9% of the field with the high score. And the judge at E scored almost the reverse, awarding the highest percentage of the three judges to 68% of the field and only being the toughest judge on 6%. At C, the judge was fairly balanced throughout, giving the highest percentage to 26% of the field, the lowest to 36%, and remaining the middle score on the remaining 38% of pairs.

Only one other pattern emerges; although M was tough on the majority of the field, she did utilize the higher end of her scoring scale more readily than the judge at C. When looking at those who scored in the twenties, the judge at E maintained his habit of awarding the highest percentages but the position of the judges at C and M switched. For the top end of these scores, C awarded the lowest percentages of the three for 63% of the 19 sub-thirty pairs, and was the highest for only 5% while M was evenly split between being the highest, middle, and lowest percentages.

So what does this mean? Ultimately, it means that the differences in judging compensated quite nicely for each other overall. This is not normally the case when variances as large as these appear but explain why ultimately, the judging appeared to overall be quite even across the board.

Moving on to the actual results, we saw quite a bit of play in the results near the top, although as expected, RF Scandalous remained untouchable. Those who entered the top five were the usual suspects, with Deniro Z, Tsetserleg, and Danito all performing expectedly stellar tests. One horse to keep an eye on who did 3.2 points better than expected is Islandwood Captain Jack; it may not seem important now but with the jumping phases yet to come, those three points might make a world of difference to their final placing. RF Cool Play, Stella Artois, and Laz Paz are also all horses who did themselves a world of good by edging themselves into the twenties.

RF Scandalous and Marilyn Little will enter into cross country with only a cushion of 7 seconds over Deniro Z, and only 16 seconds over Tsetserleg. It likely won’t be sufficient to deter Deniro Z no matter the scenario, but if the clock is easy to make, it might be just enough to stay ahead Tsetserleg.

THE COURSE

Although Captain Mark Phillips has designed for Tryon since the inception of the venue, the course itself has undertaken several metamorphoses, starting from a track that was made partially of footing combined with grass and evolving to the track on a former golf course that is utilized today. It should be noted that this course is different than the track utilized at the World Equestrian Games, beginning at the stabling area and concentrating many of the jumping efforts south of one reservoir while looping up to circle a second.

In the only long format held at this venue, 88.9% of the 81 pairs who started completed the course, 66.7% finished clear, and a whopping 19.8% finished inside the time. Admittedly, the field at the World Equestrian Games is the cream of the crop from around the entire world, but even so these completion rates are all significantly higher than the world-wide rates for the 4*-L over the last half decade.

In the entire field, seventeen horses have made the time at least once at the 4/5*-L levels; two horses (Indy 500 and Palm Crescent) have done it on two occasions, another two horses (Harbour Pilot and Landmark’s Monte Carlo) have done it on three, while Z has done it five times.

The optimum time for the course is 10:00, the typical length for a course at this level. A course map is available in the here, with the pairs jumping 43 obstacles in 28 numbered combinations. The word on the street is that the course is struggling to drain all of the heavy rain that fell through Thursday morning; if that is the case, the riders should be prepared for time to be significantly harder to catch than it was at WEG.

One term I’d like to introduce to the readers is what I define as the speed rating, or SR. Speed rating is the number of seconds over either optimum time or, if no pair achieves optimum time on that day, the number of seconds a pair has come in behind the fastest round of the day. This calculation is showing up more and more when defining the overall pace of a horse; it is helpful when looking at time penalties to determine which courses ran fast and which were plagued by time penalties. This rating allows direct comparison of paces of the two types of courses.

CROSS COUNTRY MACHINES

Boyd Martin and Blackfoot Mystery. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

The Thoroughbred blood of Blackfoot Mystery has helped him meet the pace in this three completed 4/5*-L courses under Boyd Martin; he’s put in an average speed rating of only 5 seconds between a run at Fair Hill, Kentucky, and Rio. With a qualification for Tokyo on the line, you might think Boyd would be conservative in his pace but ultimately he’s more likely to go out with a vengeance to prove this horse still has what it takes. As second out today, he’ll almost be in the same position as he was four years ago, when he served as pathfinder for the US team. Coupled with a strong dressage score for the horse, a speedy round will help him edge closer to the leaders.

Tamie Smith and EnVogue. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

EnVogue has a relatively brief record at the A/4* levels, but under Tamie Smith, she has enjoyed setting the fastest time of the day in four of her five cross-country runs. That includes setting the mark of 39 seconds under optimum time in her first 4*-L start at Galway, which was only her second start at the level at the time. Speeds like this often indicate a horse who doesn’t need to change gears much to set-up for a fence, resulting in a smooth round that looks slower than it is. These two will be a good pair to watch to compete for fastest time of the day and should move up as long as the time isn’t too easy to make.

Marilyn Little and RF Scandalous. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

This event looks like it could be Marilyn Little‘s to lose right now, but a lot will depend on today’s course and how hard it is to make the time. This rider will go out on a mission with RF Scandalous who is typically run at a conservative pace at the A/4*-S level. This mare’s weakness is her pace though; her best pace out of her four completed 4/5* long formats has been twelve seconds over the time with an average pace of 18.25 seconds over optimum, and at each of these four courses multiple other riders made the time. Her dressage prowess gives her an edge, so she can absorb up to 5 seconds of time penalties before relying on others to also incur penalties, but if time is difficult to make this pair will drop down a few placings.

Ariel Grald and Leamore Master Plan. Photo by Nico Morgan Media.

Leamore Master Plan has demonstrated a few new tricks this year, one of which is the capability of breaking the 70% mark on the flat, demonstrated in a very timely manner on Thursday. He and Ariel Grald also demonstrated a new trick at Great Meadow earlier this summer, demonstrating their ability to clock in the fastest round of the day without making much of an effort. The pace has been a bit of Achilles’ heel for this young horse as Ariel took her time to make sure they both were secure for the level; now experience and confidence may pay off and let these two press faster than their average speed rating of 23.33 seconds at completed clear 4/5*-L.

Sara Kozumplik Murphy and Rubens D’Ysieux. Photo by Miranda Akins/Photography In Stride.

It will be the first long format attempt for Sara Kozumplik-Murphy and Rubens d’Ysieux since they’ve returned from their hiatus; history shows their speed rating sitting at 27.2 seconds in five clear runs at 4*-S/L. Their 2019/2020 record also indicates a steadier pace, so look for this pair to be aiming more for a clear round than racing the clock.

Maya Black and Miks Master C. Photo by Shelby Allen.

Maya Black is back at the level again, this time with the promising Miks Master C who displayed the considerable progress he’s made throughout his first year at Advanced to put in a solid score. Still, this pair would need to pick up their pace to make much progress in the ranks; they’ve been averaging 19.6 seconds as a speed rating in five completions, which might hold them steady after dressage but won’t make up much ground.

Woods Baughman and C’est La Vie 135. Photo by Abby Powell.

The young Woods Baughman impressed on Thursday with C’est La Vie 135, and will looking to do so again today. In three clear finishes at the level, these two have a speed rating of 24.33 seconds; however that includes a hefty outlier of the horse’s first Advanced at Millbrook in 2019, when they finished nearly a minute over the optimum time. Although limiting their starts in 2020 to only two, they finished at nearly identical paces in both, only 10 or 11 seconds over optimum. Having said that, the first 4*-L is notable more difficult for first-time riders than the typical starter and Woods will need to be at his best to simply beat the odds; only 29% of first-time riders on first-time horses finish the course clear. Getting close to the time will likely be secondary.

Boyd Martin and On Cue. Photo by Jenni Autry.

On Cue chose an opportune time to put in a personal best in the dressage and as so, earned her way into the conversation of who might be good to watch on cross-country. At face value, she and Boyd Martin have accumulated double digit time penalties in more than half of their 4*-S starts, but a deeper dive indicates a large number of those occurred at events where no one made the optimum. This pair overall has a speed rating of only 12.67 seconds and have twice finished as the fastest pair of the day at the 4*-S out of five runs. In the mare’s only 4*-L start, she clocked in only four seconds over optimum. It’s likely that On Cue will move up the ranks today, as long as the clock is not set to be too easy.

Doug Payne and Starr Witness (USA). Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

This weekend will be a big ask for the Pan Am team horse Starr Witness, who has only three runs at the A/4*-S level. In their two clear completions, they averaged a speed rating of 17.5 (no one made the optimum at either event), including setting the fastest pace of the day in the mare’s first Advanced back in February at Pine Top. While she has completed two of three courses clear, she did have two stops at one fence at this venue at Blue Ridge Mountain two months ago. Doug Payne is likely to have nipped this issue in the bud, but ultimately a completion might be more valuable to this pair than a top placing.  Doug isn’t known for playing it safe though, so look for him set out on this mare with a goal in mind.

Sara Mittleider and La Paz. Photo by Hope Carlin.

West Coast pair La Paz and Sara Mittleider may not be quite in stalking range yet, but they’ll be able to move up far enough the ranks today to be a contender for the top ten tomorrow. It’ll be a good test for this horse to experience a bit of muddy turf, as he’s already proven himself on the dirt tracks of the west. This pair has clocked in the fastest round of the day already once this fall at the inaugural Advanced at the Florida Horse Park; they also finished inside the time at last year Galway Downs 4*-L, culminating in a win. Their speed rating averages at 14.5 seconds for six starts at the 4* level but it remains to be seen if they can match or exceed that when facing more adversarial conditions.

Lynn Symansky and RF Cool Play (USA). Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

After a stellar dressage test yesterday, RF Cool Play has moved himself into contention with Lynn Symansky. This horse has a fairly thin record at the 4* level, despite having completed two 4*-L divisions; he has only competed in two Advanceds, one 4*-S, and one 4*-L. Part of this was due to his focus on the Pan American games last summer, spending most of the year at the I and 3* levels to prepare for the team outing, then being competed very conservatively after the pandemic this year. Regardless, this horse has a squeaky clean cross-country record but a speed rating of 20.4 seconds, something that would need to be surpassed in order to maintain their current placing.

Tamie Smith and Danito. Photo by Hope Carlin.

Tamie Smith doesn’t bring horses east for an also-ran, and in Danito she has a real shot for a top placing. This horse has finished in the top three in 4 of 5 completions at the A/4*-S level, helped along by this horse’s talent in the dressage phase. On first glance, Danito has had a good portion of time penalties on his record, finishing an average of 22.33 seconds over optimum in his three 2020 starts. However on closer inspection, he actually finished within 14 seconds or less of the fastest pace of the day, as no one caught the optimum time in any of the A/4* shows he competed at this year. After a strong dressage test, this pair will be looking to maintain their top placing by finishing close enough to optimum to maintain their advantage.

Liz Halliday-Sharp and Deniro Z. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

As the second place horse, all eyes will be on Deniro Z and Liz Halliday-Sharp as they set out on course. These two have clearly set their sights on Tokyo and have gone out on their 2020 courses with a vengeance, clocking home with the fastest time in their most recent two runs after taking a leisurely pace in June in the horse’s first 2020 start. Their average speed rating at the 4*-S level has been 11.5 seconds, but they haven’t been able to match that success at the 4/5*-L levels yet, with their time penalties ranging from 11 seconds over optimum at Luhmuhlen, through 26 seconds over optimum at Boekelo, up to 86 seconds over optimum at Burghley, all events at which at least one pair made the time. If they want a spot on the Tokyo team, they’ll have to prove they can maintain the quick pace they show at the short format over the length of a long format course. If they can make time today, they should go into the final phase in the lead position; if not, they’ll have to hope they are fast enough to avoid being overtaken by Tsetserleg, Danito, or Starr Witness, all of whom are only 5 seconds behind.

Phillip Dutton and Z. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

It’s easy to think of Z still as the green protégé in the string of Phillip Dutton, but since an appearance as part of the 2018 US WEG team, he’s been the big man on campus. This horse has six completed runs at the 4/5*-L levels, and has been inside in all but one of them….the 2018 WEG appearance at this very venue. While a flag penalty scuttled his hopes for his first big win last fall at Fair Hill, he still finished inside the time, the fifth time he has done so. It should be noted that the only time the horse did not make time, he was the anchor member of a team that already had to contend with two horses with stops; Phillip Dutton had to be prepared to get home with a clean round rather than search for individual success. This pair will likely prove that it was the circumstances rather than the venue that prevented them from finishing inside the optimum time.

Caroline Martin and Islandwood Captain Jack. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

Caroline Martin is nowadays a rider with a significant amount of experience at this level, and with Islandwood Captain Jack, she has a horse who steps up to the plate when running the long format. This pair has a speed rating of only 2.67 seconds in three 4*-L completions; in the horse’s first start at the level, he finished only 7 seconds slower than the fastest time of the day, on a day when no one caught the optimum time. In his two subsequent runs at the level, he accumulated a total of only one second over optimum. Although he may not be high in the minds of people after dressage, after a considerably improvement in that phase giving him a little extra boost he’ll be one to watch by the time stadium rolls around.

Lauren Kieffer and Landmark’s Monte Carlo. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

An extremely experienced competitor, Landmark’s Monte Carlo excels in the cross-country phase, particularly at the long format. Although he hasn’t made the time at each of the eight clear 4/5*-L cross-country rounds he’s finished, he and Lauren Nicholson have never been more than five seconds over the optimum time and have three times finished completely inside optimum. Consistency is the name of the game for these two, who will be expected to post a similar pace today. Look for these two to blast up the ranks on the strength of his pace, culminating possibly in a top ten position going into the final day.

Jennie Brannigan and Stella Artois. Photo by Sherry Stewart.

Stella Artois holds the highest hopes for Jennie Brannigan‘s string today; in three completions at the 4*-L level, this mare has put in a consistently quick pace, finishing no more than 12 seconds over optimum and getting as close as only one second over optimum. Although they have yet to hit the time at this particular format, they come close enough that Stella Artois ought to be significantly improve her placing today..

Boyd Martin and Tsetserleg (USA). Phtoo by Shannon Brinkman.

Getting down to the final four horses of the day, we next go to Tsetserleg and Boyd Martin, who have had the advantage of running over this course before, albeit over an altered track. In four clear 4/5*-L, Tsetserleg has finished an average of 6.5 seconds over the time; if you discard the outlier of his first 4*-L completion in 2018, when he finished 18 seconds over optimum, he has averaged only 2.67 seconds over optimum. Not only will Boyd be out to remind everyone that this horse is the current reigning USEF 5* national champion (since the 2020 event was abandoned) as well as the reigning individual and team gold medalist from the Pan Am games, but will also be out to set the record straight after a green stop stopped American hearts all over the country at this venue in 2018.

Doug Payne and Vandiver. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

Doug Payne too will be setting out with a bone to pick on Vandiver; despite all their success at the 4*-S level, this horse just hasn’t quite been able to replicate it at the long format. To earn a spot on the plane to Tokyo, he first needed to prove that scoring over 70% is a consistent way of life, taking a step towards that yesterday by breaking that barrier for the first time at a 4/5*-L. The next step will be cross country day, where he needs a fast and clear run to live up to his consistency at the 4*-S level. In 2019, this pair picked up the pace at the long formats they did, accumulating only one second over optimum in two 4/5*-L completions; unfortunately they sandwiched those around a horse fall at Burghley in a troublesome combination and followed up by being one of the several victims of a flag penalty at Fair Hill. Bad luck is bad luck, but the Tokyo slots are few and far between, so this pair will be looking to match their effortless pair of A/4*-S runs from 2020, where they first finished only one second off the fastest time here at Tryon and followed it with two seconds off the fastest pace at Stable View.

Buck Davidson and Carlevo. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

One of our final two pairs, Buck Davidson and Carlevo will struggle to match anything close to the pace of the leaders; in five clear 4*-L runs, Carlevo has averaged 33.2 seconds over optimum without any sign of improving on that. While a clear round is unlikely to be a problem for this horse, his pace is liable to take him down the ranks quickly.

Hannah Sue Burnett and Harbour Pilot. Photo by Leslie Wylie.

As the horse with the most longevity at the level, Harbour Pilot has served as a bit of an enigma in this phase. He and Hannah Sue Burnett won the horse’s first outing at this level way back in 2012 on the strength of a round inside the optimum, then replicated the pace in two of their 5* runs since, at Kentucky in 2014 and then at Luhmuhlen in 2017. But as frequently as they’ve had fast and clear rounds, they’ve had issues, with three stops, a frangible pin, and a rider fall on their long format record. They also have clocked in a handful of also-ran clear rounds, ranging from 12 second speed ratings up to 33 seconds. Without any consistency, it’s extremely difficult to tell what this pair will do but one thing is certain; they’ll need a top level performance today if they want to earn a spot on the plane to Tokyo.

PREDICTIONS – DAY THREE

Division Winner: Since it is looking more and more like the time is not going to be the walk in the park that the 2018 WEG was, it seems quite possible that this competition will not end up simply being a dressage and show jumping show. If that’s the case, Phillip Dutton and Z will finally get that accolade missing from this horse’s resume: a win at the 4*-L level. Phillip will have to hope that the time is either extremely difficult or impossible to make, and then ensure he sets a pace in that is at least 6 seconds faster than Tsetserleg and 11 seconds faster than Deniro Z’s pace. The harder the time is tomorrow, the better it will be for Z.

Phase Two Leader: Deniro Z will have the edge after tomorrow if time is doable but not easy to make. Liz Halliday-Sharp will be out on a mission and certainly has the advantage over RF Scandalous; ultimately the question is how much of an edge will she maintain over Tsetserleg, Danito, and Starr Witness.

Making the Optimum Time/Fastest Time of the Day: EnVogue is likely to be the quickest pace, with Z, Landmarks Monte Carlo, and Islandwood Captain Jack all giving her a run for her money.

The Surprise: Mama’s Magic Way and Will Faudree could set a surprisingly pace and paired with their low thirties dressage score (3.8 points better than expected), could be somewhat of a dark horse heading into tomorrow.

MARS Tryon International: Website, Entry Status, Schedule, Order of Go, Ride Times, Live Scores, Live Stream, Coverage

Coverage of Tryon International this weekend is brought to you by Strides for Equality Equestrians (SEE). Diversity and inclusion in all equestrian sports are important, and we’ll be bringing you tidbits on what this new organization hopes to accomplish.

It was a soggy start to the week with Tryon getting several inches of rain that carried on yesterday morning and left most of day one competitors riding in overcast conditions. By the end of the day, the sun finally deigned to peek out from behind the clouds. Despite the sogginess, the footing at Tryon is second-to-none and the ring held up extremely well for the competitors who faced wetter conditions today.

The ground conditions on cross-country are apparently a different story, as mentioned by guest commentator Will Faudree on the live stream. It’s extremely wet out there, enough so that the competitors have been prohibited from walking the course today. Tryon has already taken a look at their initial schedule and completely re-worked it in an effort to give the 4*-L the best ground possible. No one will run cross-country today and the first competitors over the turf on Saturday will be the CCI2*-L competitors will be followed by the 4*-L riders. CCI4*-S competitors will now run cross country on Sunday.

DRESSAGE ANALYSIS – DAY ONE

Like Galway Downs, dressage percentiles from each judge have not been made publicly available, so it is not possible to review any judging trends that might be emerging.

Unlike Galway Downs, yesterday proceeded much as expected. Although there were a few surprises individually, overall the field hewed extremely close to expectations. The average of yesterday’s dressage competitors was expected to be 33.55; the average of yesterday’s scoring ended up as a 33.51, only four hundredths of a point off. Meanwhile, 33% of the competitors who went yesterday scored within 1 point of their expected score, including nine pairs who scored within half a point of expectations. Of the pairs who scored more than a point better or worse than expected, they were split fairly evenly. The takeaway from yesterday is that while an occasional competitor may have been rewarded or punished unfairly in the scoring (and that is difficult to evaluate without judge percentiles), the overall judging has been accurate as a whole. If the judging continues on the same path, those at the end of today should end up with no advantage over those who went yesterday, which is the ideal situation.

To no one’s surprise, our leader at the end of the day was RF Scandalous, whose 21.5 is only a tenth of a point different than her average of 2020 A/4* tests. Starr Witness, Rubens d’Ysieux, and Blackfoot Mystery all hewed closely to their expected scores while On Cue, Miks Master C, and Leamore Master Plan all chose an opportune moment to put in tests close to or surpassing their personal bests. First-time 4*-L pair Woods Baughman and C’est La Vie 135 put in an excellent showing, his 29.1 hewing extremely close to his 2020 A/4* average. Tamie Smith and EnVogue unfortunately may have suffered from their very early order of go; despite an accurate test with lovely expression they sit just under 30 instead of the mid-to-low twenties that they were hoping for. Tamie will be back out today though, with another legitimate crack at one of the top placings.

DRESSAGE DIVAS – DAY TWO

Matt Flynn and Wizzerd. Photo by William Carey.

A year ago, Matt Flynn and Wizzerd would not have entered the conversation of top dressage horses, averaging a career 33.9 for the A/4* levels and only breaking the 70% mark once. In 2020 though, they’ve come out swinging, scoring a personal best of 27.3 at this venue in early September and then bettering it again two weeks later with a 26.9 at Stable View to prove it wasn’t a fluke. If they can match their 2020 average of 26.6, they’ll be right up in the conversation at the end of phase one.

Lynn Symansky and RF Cool Play. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

A horse who has been lightly competed at the top level, RF Cool Play could be a wild card this morning. Under Lynn Symansky, this horse contributed to the Pan Am team gold last summer, finishing in silver individually. This limited his A/4* starts in 2019 to only a 4*-L at the Ocala Jockey Club and this year has only had two starts since things resumed this spring, winning both a Prelim and a 3*-S back in August. His 2020 scores have all broken 70%, and have broken 75% twice but this has all happened at the lower levels. At the A/4* level, he has broken that mark only once out of five starts, scoring 25.9 penalties at Morven back in 2018. However, the scores in his other four tests at the level range from a 31.1 to a 32.2, consistent but not quite there.

Tamie Smith and Danito. Photo by MGO Photography.

Tamie Smith and the talented Danito are one of the few pairs to have the cops to be competitive with RF Scandalous; their score of 19.6 penalties in the Advanced at Galway Downs this July is the best career dressage score in the field at this level. They’ve broken 75% in three of the horses five starts at the level, averaging 23.2 penalties overall. One downside is that this horse’s score has been rising slightly in each consecutive start since July; although his worst mark of 26.0 penalties is still an excellent score, it comes in his most recent start.

Liz Halliday-Sharp and Deniro Z. Photo by Nico Morgan Media.

As the only pair in the field to win multiple 4*-S divisions this season, Liz Halliday-Sharp and Deniro Z will be on a mission to make it a hat-trick for the year. Their 2020 average of 25.4 penalties is the third-best in the field but this is a pair who put in a personal best 23.6 penalties in the Advanced at Stable View in June after quarantine restrictions were lifted and have ticked up slightly in each subsequent test. They’ve stayed below their career A/4* average of 28.5 but will need to do better than that on this occasion to have a chance for the win.

Stormtrooper is a Clayton Fredericks ride who has really blossomed with not only an extra year at the level but also some time to stay home and work on the fundamentals. This horse went from averaging 35.6 for the level pre-pandemic to scoring a new personal best in three consecutive tests when things started up again, averaging a 29.3 this fall. If he continues the same trend here, he’ll best his current best score of 27.7 for the levels, clocked in at the Advanced at the Florida Horse Park last month.

Phillip Dutton and Z. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

Jennie Brannigan and Stella Artois. Photo by Shannon Brinkman Photography.

Boyd Martin and Tsetserleg. Photo by Shannon Brinkman.

Doug Payne and Vandiver. Photo by Jenni Autry.

Buck Davidson and Carlevo. Photo by Tilly Berendt.

Hannah-Sue Burnett and Harbour Pilot. Photo by Nico Morgan Media.

Wrapping us up for the weekend is long-time campaigner Harbour Pilot has been campaigning at the Advanced levels for an astonishing nine years now, a feat that should be commended, and won his first attempt at the 4*-L way back in 2012. As a result, Hannah Sue Burnett doesn’t need to bring him out very often to remind him what his job is. Ultimately, Harbour Pilot ended up only having one A/4*-S start for the year, clocking in a 26.8 at Great Meadow in August. The largest question mark for these two is consistency; Harbour Pilot tends to strike in the 26 to 29 penalty range but around 40% of the time doesn’t quite manage to break that 70% barrier. Having said this, Harbour Pilot is the horse who had a joint lead at Burghley in 2019 after the flat, so a leading score is certainly a possibility.

PREDICTIONS – DAY TWO

Dressage Leader: Tamie Smith will have a run at the lead early on with Danito, who is the only horse in the field aside from RF Scandalous to break the 80% barrier in his A/4* career. However, RF Scandalous will hold the line, and we’ll end the day as we started, with Marilyn Little extending her leading dressage streak to nine consecutive A/4* starts.

The Field Above 70%: Yesterday, six pairs were expected to break into the twenties and nine horses managed to his that mark. Based off that, today we’ll see at least another 10-12 horses join the 70% club, while at least two or three pairs will join Marilyn Little and RF Scandalous in breaking 75%.

The Surprise: RF Cool Play and Wizzerd both have the potential to bust out what might seem like an uncharacteristically low score.

MARS Tryon International: Website, Entry Status, Schedule, Order of Go, Ride Times, Live Scores, Live Stream, Coverage